By Gary S. Vasilash

Although there seems to be a propulsive inevitability of the electric vehicle such that by the time 2030 arrives we’ll all be rolling around in electron-powered machines, there are a few things that are making this seem less. . .inevitable.

Last week ExxonMobil announced it is acquiring Pioneer Natural Resources, an oil and gas exploration and production company, for $59.5-billion.

As ExxonMobil described this: “Together, the companies will have an estimated 16 billion barrels of oil equivalent resource in the Permian. At close, ExxonMobil’s Permian production volume would more than double to 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MOEBD), based on 2023 volumes, and is expected to increase to approximately 2 MOEBD in 2027.”

Or simply put: More access to more oil.

Today Chevron announced it is buying Hess Corp. for $53-billion. Hess “is a leading global independent energy company engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas with leading positions offshore Guyana, the Bakken shale play in North Dakota, the deepwater Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of Thailand.”

Chevron “produces crude oil and natural gas; manufactures transportation fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals and additives; and develops technologies that enhance our business and the industry. We aim to grow our traditional oil and gas business, lower the carbon intensity of our operations and grow new lower carbon businesses in renewable fuels, hydrogen, carbon capture, offsets and other emerging technologies.”

With Hess it will most certainly grow its traditional oil and gas business.

McKinsey & Company just released its “Global Energy Perspective,” which looks at the likelihood of the industrialized world meeting the goal of keeping global warming growth below 1.5°C. There are four scenarios about the energy transition, ranging from “Fading momentum” to “Achieved commitments.”

In all cases they predict that oil will peak in 2030.

But then there is a question of what happens next: what is the angle of decline by 2050?

It could be big: as much as a decrease of barrels of oil by 50%

It could be small: as little as a 3% decline.

Odds are ExxonMobil and Chevron are betting on something closer to 3 than 50.

Which leads to a bit of wonder about the rate of adoption of EVs in the U.S.

As of August, J.D. Power had the share of EV sales in the U.S. at 8.6%. That number is a bit opaque because Tesla accounts for 63% of all of those EV sales, so it is not like EVs that aren’t Teslas are growing in ubiquity. (Even Ford has taken a shift out of the production of the F-150 Lightning, and F-150s (well, with combustion engines) are otherwise produced at such a rate that other vehicle manufacturers can only look on with envy.)

So while the number is easily going to be greater than 3% come 2030, perhaps the idea that EVs will be 50% of the market by 2030 is a bit too optimistic.