2019 Sales Estimates and Surprises

The Cox Automotive sales forecast for 2019—yes, the full numbers will be in in a few days, but that isn’t the point here—includes some interesting information in the charts. No surprise that cars—compact and midsize—are projected to be down by double digits, though it is surprising that only the midsize SUV/Crossover is in positive territory compared with December 2018.

No, the thing that is unexpected is that once you get beyond the top four OEMs—which would be GM, Ford, Toyota, and FCA (which brings up the point that even were there such a moniker as “The Big Three,” FCA wouldn’t make the cut)—things get somewhat interesting. As in the distance between #4 and #5, Honda. FCA is projected to deliver 2.2 million and Honda 1.6 million.

Here’s the interesting bit: Nissan is projected to have sales of 1,365,900 units in 2019. Hyundai Kia (yes, the two are combined the same way that Lincoln sales go with Ford’s) is estimated to be at 1,328,788.

37,112 units separating the two.

The last two companies on the list are Subaru and Volkswagen. The former seems to rack up sales records like clockwork. Yet Subaru sales, Cox Automotive predicts, will be 703,755. Which is only about half of Nissan sales.

And while Volkswagen is getting all manner of attention because of its recovery from Dieselgate, its total sales are estimated to be 650,541 for the year. Or just 22% of GM’s sales—and while VW’s sales are projected to be up 2.5%, GM’s will be down 2.5%

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