By Gary S. Vasilash

In GM CEO Mary Barra’s letter to shareholders for the Q4 2023 results it reads, in part:

“In our EV business, we expect our U.S. portfolio will become variable profit positive in the second half of the year based on our current expectations for EV demand and production growth, strong interest in our vehicles, lower commodity prices and other factors.

“It’s true the pace of EV growth has slowed, which has created some uncertainty. But many third-party forecasts have U.S. EV deliveries rising from about 7% of the industry in 2023 to at least 10% in 2024, which would mean another year of record EV sales. 

“We believe our competitive position will improve throughout the year, based on higher production of the Cadillac LYRIQ, GMC HUMMER EV, Chevrolet Blazer EV and Silverado EV Work Truck. We’re also excited to have the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Silverado EV RST, the GMC Sierra EV Denali and the Cadillac Escalade IQ arriving in showrooms over the course of the year.”

There is something to be said for optimism. And given that GM is investing billions in EV development and production, optimism is better than the alternative.

In her Q4 2022 letter to shareholders Barra wrote:

“By leveraging U.S.-made battery cells produced by our Ultium Cells joint venture and the scalability and flexibility of the Ultium Platform, we are accelerating production of the Cadillac LYRIQ, GMC HUMMER EV and BrightDrop Zevo 600, and we will launch exciting vehicles like the Chevrolet Silverado EV, Blazer EV and Equinox EV. This keeps us on track to produce 400,000 EVs in North America from 2022 through the first half of next year.”

For the full year of 2023, rather than just the first half, GM sold 75,883 EVs. About 19% of that 400,000. Even if we add in the 2022 EV sales, 39,096, to the full year ’23 sales, that is 114,979, or about 29% of that 400,000.

Yes, GM will sell more EVs in 2024 than it did in 2023.

And it will be a good thing if the EVs it sells are “variable profit positive” by the second half of the year.

But consider: in 2023 GM’s total U.S. sales were 2,594,698 units. That means the 75,883 EVs represented about 3% of total sales.

If industry sales of EVs this year are “at least 10%,” what is the likelihood that GM will come close to reaching that number?