There is the mandate. Then there is the market.

By Gary S. Vasilash

One of the questionable Christmas presents that car companies doing business in the UK happened just before the holiday, when the country’s Department of Transport, which has on the books a mandate that by 2030 there will be no new vehicles sold with gasoline or diesel engines under their hoods, announced an eight-week period during which the OEMs would have the opportunity to weigh in on how this can be achieved.

Note this is not an “If.”

As things stand, there are annual targets that must be achieved in terms of zero-emission vehicle—a.k.a., electric vehicles—by the companies.

The UK government is committed to this, apparently, although one wonders if the auto industry begins to crumble because of the penalties associated with not meeting the targets.

Penalties in the form of a fine of £15,000 for every vehicle sold that doesn’t meet the target.

For example, consider Ford, which has been part of the UK’s automotive structure since 1911.

The mandate has it that 22% of a carmaker’s sales in 2024 are electric.

How did Ford do? Apparently 6.8% for the first 11 months, so unless there was some massive change, it will be well below the government bogey.

Which means serious fines.

This is sort of an insult-to-injury situation in that the company has been investing billions of dollars/pounds/euros—pick your currency—in EVs, and because people aren’t as interested in buying them as they are other products, it costs Ford (and other companies that don’t meet the mandate) more.

Heck of a business.

Or as Mike Hawes, head of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders trade association for the auto business in the UK, put it:

“Aside from the billions invested in new technologies and products, it has cost manufacturers in excess of £4 billion in discounting in the UK this year alone. This is unsustainable and, with the 2025 market looking under even greater pressure, it is imperative we get an urgent resolution, with a clear intent to adapt the regulation to support delivery, backed by bold incentives to stimulate demand.”

Which probably means that the government is going to have to pony up more money in order to generate demand.

And Ford isn’t the only company with the lack-of-demand situation. It is estimated EVs will represent 18.7% of the UK car market in 2024, not the mandated 22%.

In 2025 that goes up to 28%.

Hawes’ “unsustainable” is an understatement.

This isn’t just a UK issue.

In the US, where EV sales in 2024 were on the order of 9%, currently standing EPA greenhouse gas regulations have it that more than 50% will need to be EVs by 2030.

The word for that may be “unachievable.”