Author Archives: shinymetalboxes

Bank of America Study of Auto: ICEs Aren’t Over Yet

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Market churn and vehicle costs are making a big difference on program launches

By Gary S. Vasilash

Pity the product planner.

Pity the consumers of vehicles near the end of the decade.

The first is one of the things that John Murphy, senior U.S. Auto Analyst for Bank of America Securities, in effect, said at an Automotive Press Association meeting held yesterday in a BoA facility in Farmington Hills, Michigan.

Or, in Murphy’s words, “The unprecedented EV head-fake over the last three years has wreaked havoc on product planning. The prior acceleration in EV launches is doing a U-turn in favor of extending ICE programs and new hybrids. However, while there is a lot of talk about hybrids, there isn’t much action. The next four+ years will be some of the most uncertain and volatile in product strategy ever.”

So while it wasn’t all that long ago that people talked about how EVs had it the “tipping point” and henceforth they would be the powertrain of choice, comparative consumer indifference has led to a reconsideration of what had thought to be fait accompli.

Pity the product planner who has to explain why what was to be a winner is just doing OK—at best.

As part of the BoA Car Wars proprietary analysis, which Murphy has been working on, it is determined that looking ahead—from model years 2025 to 2028—the rate of alternative powertrain launches—which includes hybrids—is being trimmed back a bit, with what had thought to be 79 launches in MY 2025-26 being reduced by one and launches in MY 2027-28 being down from 123 to 112.

Remember: there only seemed to be upside in that space not all that long ago.

Enjoy your opulent interior while it is still there

As for the consumers: Murphy explained that Tesla has figured out how to build cost-effective EVs in a way that the traditional OEMs haven’t. Unless the traditional can design and engineer vehicles that are just as cost effective, then while they will eat into Telsa’s market share, they won’t impact Tesla’s profitability.

Murphy said the place where the traditionals really need to focus their cost-cutting efforts are on things like the structure of the vehicle and the creature comforts (or lack thereof).

Consider: you’re unlikely to hear someone tout the comfortable cabin experience in a Tesla, but there have been plenty of thumbs-up for the interior of the Cadillac Lyriq.

But if Cadillac really wants to compete with Tesla, then that interior needs some significant change—which may not be beneficial so far as the customer is concerned.

What does Murphy recommend the traditional domestic OEMs do while they try to figure out how to get those costs out of EVs?

Go to where the money is.

Concentrate on pickup trucks with internal combustion engines.

In order to get change, thing evidently also have to stay the same.

Yes, Murphy said, the trend is still going EV. But not quite as rapidly as seemed to be the case.

Electric. Autonomous. Useful.

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This is a vehicle that makes absolute sense.

By Gary S. Vasilash

If you’ve ever been in an automotive plant you’ve undoubtedly been surprised by the number of forklift trucks zipping around that are transporting parts, equipment and various other things that go into building things.

An autonomous vehicle operating in a BMW plant–capable of handling 55 tonnes. (Image: BMW)

The BMW Group Plant Regensburg is quite similar to other state-of-the-art factories. . .but then there’s this, which apparently is something that doesn’t exist elsewhere: Its uses of an electric lidar-equipped transport vehicle.

What’s notable is not only that this is an autonomous vehicle, but that it transports payloads up to 55 tonnes.

It operates at speeds up to 2.5 mph.

“Not fast,” you think. But (1) it is inside a facility where people are working, so speed is relative, and (2) it is carrying up to 55 tonnes of steel—not the sort of thing you want to bump into.

The autonomous vehicle operates in the factory’s stamping operation. It is used to transport tools for the presses—there are four press lines that turn some 1,100 tonnes of steel into approximately 131,000 stamped parts (e.g., side frames, door outers, hoods) per day—as well as steel blanks that are turned into those parts.

Some Numbers in China

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Ever wonder why Western governments are concerned about their domestic auto manufacturers?

By Gary S. Vasilash

The U.S. is applying big tariffs on electric vehicles from China (as in 100%), and the European Union, moderately big (38%). (Apparently the Chinese are doing a bit of retaliation, as it has opened an investigation into pork products exported from the EU.)

Some numbers from GlobalData provide a sense of the sort of numbers associated with Chinese vehicle manufacture that are concerning to those in the U.S. and Europe.

Looking at sales of passenger vehicles in China from January to through April, there was an increase of 5.5% year-over-year to 6.3 million units.

But the red flag is this number: a rise in production by 9%, or 7.6 million units.

Simply: 1.3 million more passenger vehicles made than sold.

This means overcapacity. Which also means that companies are probably interested in finding markets where they can offload those excess vehicles.

And while the 7.6 million number  is all passenger vehicles, not just those with batteries in addition to the 12-V battery under the hood, in April there were 424,0000 vehicles exported from China, a year-over-year increase of 36.9%.

And those joint ventures. . .

Once, Western brands were almost giddy when it came to the opportunity to create joint ventures in China with Chinese companies. The market size was (and is) nothing short of amazing.

GlobalData finds that when it comes to NEVs—or “New Energy Vehicles,” which are the hybrids and full EVs—the penetration rate of Chinese local brands was close to 60% of the market, up 7% from the same period last year, while the joint venture brands have a penetration rate of 12%–still up from last year’s number. But only 1%.

So one can expect the Chinese OEMs that produce NEVs to up the production of those vehicles, which will undoubtedly lead to overcapacity there, too, which means they’ll have to do something to do with those vehicles.

And that something is probably exports.

EVs in the UK: One Step Forward, One Step Back

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When will ICEs be banned next?

By Gary S. Vasilash

Although the U.S. government is rolling out various and sundry rules, regulations and funding schemes meant to increase the number of electric vehicles on the roads, elsewhere governments are drawing lines in the proverbial sand and saying, “After this date certain, no more ICE.”

In the UK there had initially been a plan to ban the sale of new vehicles with combustion engines (gas or diesel) by 2040, but even that was considered extreme by people in the auto industry.

Still, in 2020 the UK government set the time when it would no longer be permissible to sell new combustion vehicles: 2030.

But last year, British prime minister Rishi Sunak, member of the Conservative Party, pushed that deadline back by five years, to 2035. That happens to be when the European Union has announced it will enact a ban. Seems like there was something the UK and the EU could agree on.

(It is worth noting that the Germans are taking a carve out: it will be permissible to sell combustion engine powered vehicles there beyond 2035—if those vehicles use carbon-neutral fuels. Odds are there aren’t going to be a whole lot of e-fuels available there or anywhere else at that time, unless the big oil companies go at it right away, and given that as about 85% of crude oil by weight is carbon, carbon neutrality will be a tough assignment.)

Back to the UK.

There will be an election for a new prime minister in the UK on July 4.

Sunak will be facing Keir Starmer of the Labour Party.

The party has written a “manifesto” outlining its approach to various social and economic issues facing the UK.

And in it there’s this:

“Labour will support the transition to electric vehicles by accelerating the roll out of charge points, giving certainty to manufacturers by restoring the phase-out date of 2030 for new cars with internal combustion engines, and supporting buyers of second-hand electric cars by standardising the information supplied on the condition of batteries.”

That’s right: going back to 2030.

Somehow this probably isn’t “giving certainty to manufacturers.”

Anything but.

Buy a Truck or a BMW

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Turns out the prices are fairly close. . .

By Gary S. Vasilash

When you think of the quintessential full-size pickup truck, the sort of thing that you imagine farmers loading with bales or hay or contractors carrying loads of gravel, it is probably the Ford F-Series.

With good reason, given Ford sells those trucks the way McDonald’s sells hamburgers. The numbers are staggering.

But odds are, those images of the F-Series are probably not entirely accurate.

BMW 5 Series. Or you could consider a pickup truck. (Image: BMW)

Listen to Erin Keating, executive analyst for Cox Automotive, talking about vehicle transaction prices in May.

First she notes: “The popularity of fully loaded, full-size pickup trucks that are more luxurious than many luxury vehicles is unique to the U.S. market.”

Which can be understood that (1) there aren’t a lot of full-size pickup trucks sold in other markets around the world* and (2) those trucks are probably used as utility vehicles (e.g., the opening examples).

Keating does on: “The Ford F-Series outsold BMW 2-to-1 in May, and BMW’s ATP [average transaction price] was only marginally higher than the F-Series.”

Whereas the average transaction price for a BMW in May was $72,946, the ATP for an F-Series was $67,837.

Now that’s about a five-grand difference, which isn’t exactly trivial.

But somehow a Bimmer seems as though it is in another category all together compared with something that you probably once saw with a decal of Calvin relieving himself on a Chevy bowtie on the back window of the truck.

Of course, not a $68,000 truck, but nonetheless. . . .

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*That full-size pickups are pretty much indigenous to the U.S. market is something that makes the development of EV versions of the trucks somewhat problematic in the long run. That is, on a global basis something like the Ford Mustang Mach-E has more applicability than an F-150 Lightning. While it seems to have been thought by some OEM execs that because customers in the U.S. buy lots and lots of trucks, then if a somewhat sizable percentage of them buy electric versions then everything will be great. For reasons including cost and/or performance, that is not proving to be the case. This means that scale isn’t being achieved, and if there is something that is necessary for an OEM, it’s that. So by spending lots of engineering and manufacturing resources on making a type of vehicle that has a limited domestic market and a nearly non-existent global market, achieving scale is anywhere is not particularly likely.

2024 Volkswagen Golf GTI 380

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Something you actually need to drive—assuming you are one of the remaining few who knows how that third pedal works in an era being increasingly characterized by one-pedal driving

By Gary S. Vasilash

 “Wow! You should drive the wheels off that!”

Which isn’t the sort of remark that you’d ordinarily get when someone sees a parked car. Not even a muscle car.

2024 VW Golf GTI: Engineered to be driven. (Image: VW)

Especially not something when the guy saying it probably grew up watching muscle cars on Telegraph or Woodward.

It was clear that one look and he thought that it is a vehicle to be driven and everything else would just be icing on the cake.

He was looking at the VW Golf GTI.

In autodom in general the GTI is somewhat rare.

That is, it didn’t appear in the U.S. until 1983.

And while 41 years is a non-trivial number, there isn’t an abundance of the cars out there.

In 2023 Volkswagen of America delivered 7,451 GTIs.

Through Q1 2024 it has delivered 2,412, which is a 156% increase over Q1 ’23.

If it maintains the Q1 pace through the remaining three quarters it could reach 9,648 by the end of the year. As a percentage, a lot. But as tires on the ground, not so many.

And the reason is simple.

While the Golf in Germany* is still primarily a family car that is available with a variety of powertrains, the GTI is, quite simply, a car that it categorized by enthusiasts as a “hot hatch.”

The hatch configuration lends itself to, say, stocking up on things for the family. And with the rear seat folded the GTI offers 34.5 cubic feet of cargo capacity. Plenty.

But odds are Costco is not the destination for the car, especially not the Mk3 GTI 380, as it is equipped with a six-speed manual transmission.**

It is meant to have its wheels driven off. So to speak.

When the observation was made, even though the car was standing still the bright-red brake calipers seen though the gloss-black wheels inserted in the summer tires telegraphed the message that this car is meant to go.

And it does.

The transmission is mated to a 2.0-liter turbocharged engine that produces 241 hp and 273 lb-ft of torque.

It is a front-drive car. To help mitigate issues when getting on the accelerator therew is an electronically controlled torque-sensing limited-slip differential that keeps the car going where pointed.

There is something that strikes me as somewhat ironic about the GTI with the six-speed.

There are metal surfaces on the pedals. A massive metal dead pedal. It is a car that you have to, comparatively speaking, work at driving.

In effect, it is more “mechanical” that your run-of-the-road vehicle. And I mean that in a positive way.

Yet as this is a contemporary car it has, in the words of VW, a “technologically advanced cabin, which offers an integrated high-end digital experience.”

Yes, this means digital gauges for the driver and an infotainment system. Now obligatory.

But the thing that is amusingly odd that for being such a “mechanical” vehicle, the interfaces are not knobs and buttons but smooth, touch-sensitive surfaces.

If there is any car that really needs a large, knurled volume knob, it is the GTI.

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*Whenever an auto plant is launched, politicians typically come out and make a speech. When the eighth-generation Golf went into production in Hall 12 of the Wolfsburg plant, Stephan Weil, Minister President of the State of Lower Saxony, made some remarks including, “I’m an absolute fan of the Golf and have myself been driving one for several years. For many people in Lower Saxony, the Golf is a piece of home and something they can identify with. Just like the VW Beetle was in the past, the Golf has been a symbol of mobility and freedom for decades. Since 1974, the Golf has made a significant contribution to the stability and growth of Volkswagen and industry in Lower Saxony.” During the past 50 years there have been more than 37-million Golfs sold around the world, of which more than half were produced in Wolfsburg. More of these cars are transportation vehicles rather than enthusiast cars.

**The GTI is also available with a seven-speed DSG automatic transmission with Tiptronic. The automatic is optional. Here’s something that seems, well, different. The MSRP for the GTI with the six-speed ranges from $32,685 to $40,825. But the MSRP for the vehicle with the optional seven-speed ranges from $31,965 to $40,505—less than the models with the manual. Presumably this has something to do with volume: something made in fewer numbers tends to have a higher price than something made in greater numbers. Or maybe it goes to the point that this is the final year there will be a manual in the GTI, so if you want it you’ve got to pay a bit more for the privilege.

Clever Steering Wheel Design

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Yes, it is still round. But it provides increased functionality

By Gary S. Vasilash

Steering wheels have increasingly become not only the means by which drivers can aim their vehicles, but as a user interface for a variety of functions, from controlling the audio system to engaging cruise control.

Then there is the packaging for the airbag.

Oh, and the steering wheel still is the place where one honks the horn. (Something that is more apparent in, say, New York City.)

Note the horizontal interface across the wheel. (Image: ZF LIFETEC)

A new approach to the steering wheel has been concepted by ZF LIFETEC.

No, this isn’t something where the configuration is radically changed, as though someone is piloting an aircraft rather than an auto.

But there is a horizontal element that goes across the diameter of this concept steering wheel that is described as serving as a control for the “vehicle’s entertainment and assistance functions.”

It is a seamless surface with force-sensitive “buttons.”

The airbag?

It “deploys from the top side of the steering wheel through the upper steering wheel rim toward the driver.”

By this repositioning from where the airbag is typically located the designers and engineers are able to provide that horizontal section with a variety of functions, perhaps even at some point a central screen.

Bigger Isn’t Necessarily Better

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For every action there is still an opposite reaction. . .

By Gary S. Vasilash

While it might seem that anyone riding in a large SUV would be safe, especially in relation to those who are not riding in a large SUV when said vehicle has a collision with the non-large vehicle—and, yes, according to IIHS president David Harkey, “The huge mass of these large SUVs provides some additional protection in crashes with smaller vehicles, though that also means they present more danger to other road users” (like those in smaller vehicles)—turns out not all is without risk.

Wagoneer in the small overlap front test. (Image: IIHS)

Harkey: “The flip side of their large size is that there is a lot more force to manage when they crash into a fixed obstacle like a tree or bridge abutment or the barriers we use in our front crash tests.”

Yes, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) has a tendency to crash all manner of vehicles into barriers of various sizes and orientations.

IIHS recently tested the Jeep Wagoneer, Chevrolet Tahoe and Ford Expedition.

And of the three, only the Wagoneer received the organization’s 2024 TOP SAFETY PICK award.

The reasons the Chevy and Ford didn’t get the pick are various, including “subpar performance in the small overlap front crash test.”

What is surprising about that is, as IIHS points out, “More than 90% of new models have sailed through this evaluation with good ratings since 2021.”

The small overlap front crash test is about “maintaining survival space for the driver and front passenger.”

Survival space.

Of the three, IIHS found the Expedition to be most troubled when rammed into barriers on either the driver or passenger sides.

Another troubling thing is that while big vehicles like these are typically people movers, all three were not particularly good when it came to the second-row passengers during the moderate overlap test.

All of which is to say: No matter how big your vehicle is, drive it carefully and safely. After all, your passengers depend on it. To say nothing of how things like footwell intrusion should you be driving can be more than merely problematic.

EVs in the UK in May

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Yes, more are being bought. By fleets. . .

By Gary S. Vasilash

Although the number of vehicles sold in a given month in the UK isn’t particularly large, from a percentage standpoint there are undoubtedly some people at US OEMs who wish they’d have the kind of EV registration numbers that exist in the UK:

According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), in May EVs have 17.6% of the market.

While the whole market was up 1.7% in May, SMMT figures show that EV sales were up 6.2%. Clearly, EVs in the UK are doing rather well.

Do British consumers know something that American consumers don’t?

Well, maybe not.

Turns out that consumer retail EV sales were actually down 2%.

The uptick in the EV market came from fleets.

In the UK there is something called the “Vehicle Emissions Trading Scheme” that mandates zero-emissions vehicles represent 22% of a manufacturers’ annual sales.

Apparently there are incentives available to businesses for getting EVs that are not open to consumers. The SMMT believes that it is necessary for “the next government to provide consumers with meaningful purchase incentives.”

Conservative leader Rishi Sunak, current UK prime minister, will square off against Labour leader Keir Starmer on July 4.

Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive:

“As Britain prepares for next month’s general election, the new car market continues to hold steady as large fleets sustain growth, offsetting weakened private retail demand. Consumers enjoy a plethora of new electric models and some very attractive offers, but manufacturers can’t sustain this scale of support on their own indefinitely. Their success so far should be a signpost for the next government that a faster and fairer transition requires carrots, not just sticks.”

While of the subject of incentives and such, it should be noted that in May plug-in hybrids were up 31.5% are regular hybrids up 9.6%, both handily outperforming EVs.

And while the May ’24 market share for plug-ins is 8% and hybrids 13.2%, each below the EV’s 17.6%, combined they represent 21.2% of the market.

Evidently consumers aren’t against reduced emissions but are in favor (favour?) of the convenience and range provided by hybrids.

Tires Matter in the Snow

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Especially for electric vehicles. . .

By Gary S. Vasilash

One of the things that seemingly more European drivers—particularly those in Germany—do that isn’t as frequently performed by Americana drivers is to swap out their tires from summer tires to winter tires. Winter tires provide more grip than even the all-season tires that are more common in the U.S. And a lot more grip that that provided by summer tires.

Apparently there is a bit of an issue with winter tires and electric vehicles.

BMW/Pirelli jontly developed winter tire with EV applicataions as the focus. (Image: BMW)

The compounds and the tread patterns found on winter tires that provide the grip are such that the rolling resistance is increased.

And when it comes to EVs in particular, that rolling resistance can decrease range.

So BMW Group and Pirelli have developed 20-inch P Zero Winter 2 tires, specifically for the BMW 7 Series, including the electric i7.

The companies say that compared to a conventional winter tire, the i7 can get 50 km (31 miles) of additional range.

According to Dr. Mihiar Ayoubi, senior vice president, Development Driving Pleasure, BMW Group (with a title like that, I’d quote him even if it was not even tangential to the subject), “These tires exemplify our commitment to pushing the boundaries of our cars in even dimension.”

The tires will be available in August, then fitment for the new BMW X3 later this year.

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