“The market is under-investing now, as a reaction to over-investing. There were a lot of bullshit ideas that got funded during that speculative boom around new ways to manufacture vehicles, forgetting the last 100 years of lessons on how hard it is to build a car company. People will look at Tesla, forget how hard it was for them, and assume everybody else can also do this really quickly.”– Olaf Sakkers – Partner and Co-Founder at mobility venture investment firm RedBlue Capital in Zag Daily
Yes, creating a new automotive company—advanced battery chemistry, digital twins, asset-light approaches, and other advantages that legacy OEMs didn’t start with—is difficult.
While it is easy to take for granted things like automatic transmissions in vehicles of all types, Allison Transmission has announced it is working with Volare, the leading manufacturer of minibuses in Brazil, to equip “South America’s first school buses with fully automatic transmissions.”
Brazilian busess to be fitted with Allison automatics. (Image: Allison)
Sidnei Vargas da Silva, Volare’s Domestic Market Business Manager:
“The introduction of Allison’s fully automatic transmissions in school buses in Brazil will be revolutionary in the progress of school transportation.”
Who would have thought that in 2024 a step-gear transmission could be considered “revolutionary”?
Puts things in perspective.
The 320 new buses, which will be fitted with Alllison Torqmatic transmissions and which are being financed by Brazil’s National Fund for Educational Development, are said to be more efficient to operate on roads that are characterized by mud, gravel or sand, which apparently is characteristic of the roads in the rural areas of northern and northeastern Brazil.
While it might be thought that all school buses in the U.S. are equipped with automatics, according to Schoolbusfleet.com, the transmissions are “prevalent in most school buses” and while manuals are “less common,” they are not nonexistent.
Sarid-Hausler is referring to the man who, with Chris Valasek, remotely hacked a 2014 Jeep Cherokee. As Andy Greenberg wrote in Wired of his adventures being behind the wheel of a Jeep that the two hacked from a distance:
“Though I hadn’t touched the dashboard, the vents in the Jeep Cherokee started blasting cold air at the maximum setting. . . .Next the radio switched to the local hip hop station and began blaring Skee-lo at full volume. . . . Then the windshield wipers turned on, and wiper fluid blurred the glass.”
Nothing he did could allow him to regain control of these systems. On the one hand, those things would be annoying. On the other, it would be highly disturbing that the knobs, buttons, or screen interface didn’t work.
Greenberg, driving on I-64:
“my accelerator stopped working.”
Yes, on an interstate with the traffic one would expect. With unhappy motorists behind him.
He couldn’t get the accelerator to start working. Miller and Valasek, sitting in a house several miles away here in charge.
Welcome to cybersecurity issues.
Sarid-Hausirer reports, based on finding from the 6th annual report that Upstream has conducted on cybersecurity, that things are going beyond hacks like that, that in terms of attacks on automotive companies we’re at “an inflection point.”
Swell.
A couple of data points that substantiate that inflection point:
Based on its analysis of publicly reported cyber incidents, as well as those that Upscale personnel have found on the Deep and Dark Web, they’ve calculated that between 2010 and 2023 there were 1,468 incidents—and of that number, 295 occurred in 2023—that’s 20% of the entire number.
While there are researchers and other helpful hackers, so-called “White Hats,” they accounted for 36% of the incidents, with the Black Hats accounting for the rest. And whereas for the past few years the number of attacks that would affect thousands or millions of “mobility assets”—which range from vehicles to EV charging stations were under 23%, in 2023 the number was 49%.
And as we more frequently hear of the wonders of “the Cloud” doing all manner of compute and control and communicate functions for us, turns out that of all attack vectors, telematics and the Cloud are far and away the biggest target: 43% of the attacks are focused there.
Infotainment, the other thing that OEMs are always pointing out their newest vehicles have to the utmost and then some, is the second-highest attack vector, at 15%.
And speaking of talked about tech, Upstream has discovered that AI is going to amp up the cyberattacks on mobility assets. (The good news on this front is that AI can also be used to counteract it.)
While some might think that there are state actors behind much of this activity, Sarid-Hausirer says that for the most part those doing the hacking are groups and individuals that are interested in money more than political activities.
Somehow all of this makes that 1978 Chevy Impala with an AM/FM radio seem all the more appealing.
You can get a copy of the 138-page report that is likely to make you wonder about all of that tech being offered in new vehicles here.
Back when many of us were kids, before there were even articulated concepts about “multi-modal mobility,” a bike was something that, well, we just rode around with friends.
I’m not talking about serious riding that required special outfits and equipment.
I’m not talking about mission-oriented transport.
I’m talking about, “Hey, Mom, I’m going to go ride my bike.”
The U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, did a study of bike trips in the U.S. during 2022.
It found that of the “Total person-trips made by bike”—some 2.2 billion of them—52% were in the “Social/Recreational” category.
Presumably some of those rides were of the dedicated variety. And odds are more than a small number were just “going riding.”
The second-highest category is “School/Church,” which came in at 20%.
The lowest category, tied with “Other” at 1%, is “Work-Related Business.”
Sure, cargo bikes may be a growing category, and while there have long been bike messengers and now bike-based food deliverers in urban areas, let’s face it: At least in the U.S. bikes are more associated with fun than generating finance.
The biggest surprise about the Lincoln Aviator—and as a three-row vehicle that offers 140.6 cubic feet of passenger room or a maximum 78.6 cubic feet of cargo capacity (with the second and third rows folded) it is itself fairly big—is that there aren’t more of them sold.
That is, in all of 2023 there were just 15,551 Aviators sold in the U.S., putting it in last place in the four SUV Lincoln lineup.
Actually, that goes to an even bigger point, which is that Lincoln, for some reason, has become one of the best-kept secrets in the luxury market.
Lincoln, which positioned itself using the design philosophy “Quiet Flight” over the past several years and which uses the term “sanctuary” to describe the interior experience of its cabins, perhaps did too good a job of being stealthy.
Perhaps they should have made more noise.
The exterior designs of the Lincoln vehicles are sophisticated and unostentatious; the interior executions—particularly in the higher trim Black Label variants—are absolutely first rate. Anyone who sits in a vehicle from its crosstown rival and then gets into a Lincoln will be surprised at how well done the Lincoln interior is.
It is nothing short of striking.
Lincoln has done a refresh for the 2025 Aviator.
Fresher for MY 25: the Lincoln Aviator. (Image: Lincoln)
While there are some exterior modifications—
“The new Aviator looks more planted with a more dynamic presence than ever before. The changes we made to our signature grille shows our laser-focus on details and design that pulls you in. And with our new lighting features which we call ‘jewelry,’ the Lincoln star comes to life and immediately catches your attention.” – Kemal Curic, design director, Lincoln
–the real story for this model is upping the ante on the interior tech—
“With the new Aviator, technology takes an even larger role in helping create a relaxing, luxurious space that our clients have come to appreciate and expect from Lincoln. With advanced, connected features like the Lincoln Digital Experience and BlueCruise hands-free driving technology, we are creating a new, digital sanctuary on the road.” – Heidi Shaffer, director, Lincoln
The Lincoln Digital Experience is accessed through a 13.2-inch touchscreen or via voice, using Google Assistance or Alexa. For those who are part of the Apple ecosystem, there is CarPlay, as well. (An available Revel Ultima 3D audio system, with 28 speakers, makes the SiriusXM or Spotify or other music sound all the better.)
There is a leaning towards Google, however, as there is the ability to download apps from the Google Play store.
The BlueCruise feature, standard, allows hands-free driving on some 130,000 miles of roads in North America. There is Lane Change Assist—which allows the Aviator to switch lanes when safe to do so by simply using the turn signal indicator—and In-Lane Repositioning—which determines where the SUV is in relation to vehicles on either side of it and makes steering adjustments to provide the most room.
The midsize lux SUV category has a number of competitors, many of which (e.g., Genesis, Lexus, BMW) have solid options.
But sit in a Lincoln with a 30-position driver’s seat and then think about what your daily drive will be like.
Even if it is a two-year lease, you’re going to be spending a considerable amount of time in an interior, so it is best to get the one that you’ll be most comfortable with–and it could very likely be in a Lincoln.
As John McElroy points out at the top of this edition of “Autoline After Hours,” in 2023 Chevy sold 71,081 Colorados, GMC 22,458 Canyons, Ford 32,334 Rangers, and Nissan 58,135 Frontiers.*
That is a total of 184,008 midsize trucks.
And another number: 234,768.
That’s the number of Toyota Tacomas sold in 2023.
There were 50,760 more Tacomas sold than all of the others on the market combined.
Clearly a popular truck.
Now there is a new generation Tacoma, one designed, engineered and manufactured in the North American market because that’s where the preponderance—and it is clearly quite a preponderance—of vehicles sold.
2024 Tacoma. Badass. (Image: Toyota)
During the development of the ’24 Tacoma an objective was to create a “Badass adventure machine.”
It was configured to be capable.
It was configured with several trims—SR, SR5, TRD Off-Road, TRD PreRunner, TRD Sport, Limited—so there would be a bandwidth available for buyers.
Because Toyota is committed to providing electrified variants of all of its vehicles, the Tacoma was fitted with an optional hybrid powertrain, a propulsion system that provides 326 hp and 465 lb-ft of torque.
Because Toyota is still interested in providing something for those off-road enthusiasts (and to the economy buyers) who are interested in a third pedal, there is a six-speed manual available.
Sheldon Brown, chief engineer for the new Tacoma, talks with McElroy, Richard Truett of Automotive News, and me on this show for an entire hour.
If you’re interested in Tacomas specifically or trucks in general, it is worth your time.
==
*Who would have thought that Nissan outsold Ford in trucks?
Volvo Cars CEO Jim Rowan said on CNBC this morning about Polestar, the EV brand that it has some 44% of the shares of:
“They’ve have got a very exciting future ahead of them, they’ve moved from being a one-car company to a three-car company, they’ve got two brand-new cars coming out very shortly, in fact in the first half of this year, and that’s going to take them to a new growth trajectory.”
Sounds good, right?
But then there’s the fact that the reason Rowan was interviewed on CNBC is because Volvo Cars has announced it is going to reduce its holdings in Polestar.
Volvo Cars and Geely Holding essentially own Polestar.
In a press release from Polestar it says, in part,
“Volvo Cars is evaluating a potential adjustment to its shareholding in Polestar including a distribution of shares to its shareholders, with Geely Sweden Holding being the primary recipient. Volvo Cars will remain a strategic partner in areas across R&D, manufacturing, after sales and commercial.”
Which one could read as:
Geely China and Geely Sweden are going to own the majority of Polestar. So it is Geely, pure and straightforward.
Given that Geely owns Volvo Cars, there are probably just some bookkeeping adjustments being performed in Hangzhou. In Gothenburg the books are getting some line items removed so there can be an increased focus on its vehicles.
One wonders: Is this a further sign that the EV slowdown is having some consequences, especially on new OEMs trying to grow up?
MINI, a quintessentially British brand, is owned by BMW, a company with a German state in its name.
Last fall BMW announced an investment of more than £600 million in the MINI factories at Oxford—yes, as in the place that also has the university—and Swindon—the place where the Wernham Hogg office that merged with the Slough branch in “The Office” was located.
About the investment Milan Nedeljković, Member of the Board of Management of BMW AG responsible for production, said, “With this new investment we will develop the Oxford plant for production of the new generation of electric MINIs and set the path for purely electric car manufacturing in the future.”
MINI Aceman. No, that isn’t the production paint. It is undergoing final tests–evidently in Arizona, given that license plate–before production starts for the EV in a plant in China. (Image: MINI)
The MINI Cooper 3-door and the MINI Aceman, both EVs, will go into production in the U.K. in 2026.
Going back to the owner of the brand’s HQ country, it isn’t entirely surprising that the MINI Countryman is made in Leipzig.
What may be a bit of a surprise, however, is where the Aceman will soon start production: at a plant in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu Province, China.
About the Aceman, Stefanie Wurst, head of MINI said, “The all-electric MINI Aceman opens new opportunities for customers who want a smaller crossover than our successful MINI Countryman. The consistent electrification of our product portfolio makes a clear statement about the future of the MINI brand.”
The Aceman is based on a new EV platform developed by BMW and Great Wall Motor.
Today Fisker is holding a meeting at its HQ in Manhattan Beach, California, for prospective dealers.
Sort of like someone going into a dealership thinking about buying a given vehicle. Kicking the tires, as it were.
Fisker has had a direct sales approach, which seems to be de rigueur for new energy vehicle companies.
But it has decided that it might be more efficient—or effective—to go the old-school route and sign up some dealers.
However, as part of its “Dealer Partnership” model, it will ask that its dealers offer no-haggle pricing, where that is permitted. And it will allow dealers to have larger chunks of geography than is typically the case with dealerships, particularly in urban areas.
The first element is presumably good for customers—as in customers who don’t want to treat their buying experience as some sort of swap-meet event.
The second element provides a dealer with greater odds of moving some metal without having to compete with the dealer down the street.
According to Fisker chairman and CEO Henrik Fisker, “Over 120 dealers in North America and Europe have expressed interest in our new Dealer Partnership model.”
Of course, there is interest and there is signing on the bottom line.
So far, Fisker has gotten one dealer to sign on. It is in Europe.
In GM CEO Mary Barra’s letter to shareholders for the Q4 2023 results it reads, in part:
“In our EV business, we expect our U.S. portfolio will become variable profit positive in the second half of the year based on our current expectations for EV demand and production growth, strong interest in our vehicles, lower commodity prices and other factors.
“It’s true the pace of EV growth has slowed, which has created some uncertainty. But many third-party forecasts have U.S. EV deliveries rising from about 7% of the industry in 2023 to at least 10% in 2024, which would mean another year of record EV sales.
“We believe our competitive position will improve throughout the year, based on higher production of the Cadillac LYRIQ, GMC HUMMER EV, Chevrolet Blazer EV and Silverado EV Work Truck. We’re also excited to have the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Silverado EV RST, the GMC Sierra EV Denali and the Cadillac Escalade IQ arriving in showrooms over the course of the year.”
There is something to be said for optimism. And given that GM is investing billions in EV development and production, optimism is better than the alternative.
In her Q4 2022 letter to shareholders Barra wrote:
“By leveraging U.S.-made battery cells produced by our Ultium Cells joint venture and the scalability and flexibility of the Ultium Platform, we are accelerating production of the Cadillac LYRIQ, GMC HUMMER EV and BrightDrop Zevo 600, and we will launch exciting vehicles like the Chevrolet Silverado EV, Blazer EV and Equinox EV. This keeps us on track to produce 400,000 EVs in North America from 2022 through the first half of next year.”
For the full year of 2023, rather than just the first half, GM sold 75,883 EVs. About 19% of that 400,000. Even if we add in the 2022 EV sales, 39,096, to the full year ’23 sales, that is 114,979, or about 29% of that 400,000.
Yes, GM will sell more EVs in 2024 than it did in 2023.
And it will be a good thing if the EVs it sells are “variable profit positive” by the second half of the year.
But consider: in 2023 GM’s total U.S. sales were 2,594,698 units. That means the 75,883 EVs represented about 3% of total sales.
If industry sales of EVs this year are “at least 10%,” what is the likelihood that GM will come close to reaching that number?
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