If you live in SoCal or NoCal, you’ve got a chance to lease a piece of what could be the automotive future. Could be.
By Gary S. Vasilash
Honda has announced its three lease options for Californians—who can access one of the 12 approved dealerships—interested in the 2025 CR-V e:FCEV, a fuel-cell electric version of its popular crossover.
Looks like a Honda CR-V because it is one. What makes this one—which is manufactured at the Honda Performance Manufacturing Center in Ohio—uses a second-generation fuel cell module produced by a Honda-GM joint venture in Michigan. Some people in California can lease the CR-V e:FCEV. (Image; Honda)
Honda thinks that the most popular option will be 3 years/36,000 miles. This will require $2,959 at signing, then monthly payments of $459.
The least expensive is a 6-year/72,000-mile program that requires $2,889 at signing and $389 per month.
The most expensive is 2 years/60,000 miles, which requires $2,989 at signing and $489 per month.
However, given that mileage allowance, perhaps it pencils well for those who drive a lot: 30,000 miles per year vs. 12,000 miles for the other two lease deals.
Honda is adding an incentive for the lease packages in the form of hydrogen fuel credits: $15,000 for the 3-year lease, $30,000 for the 6-year lease and $25,000 for the 2-year lease.
While that appears to be exceedingly serious money, it is worth knowing that the average cost of a kilogram of hydrogen, which is comparable from an energy standpoint to a gallon of gas, is about $33 in California.
So that means for $15,000 one will get ~455 kg (again, think “gallons”) at the pump.
With gas at about $5.40 per gallon in California, were one to have that deal it would translate into 2,778 gallons.
The CR-V e:FCEV, which has a battery that provides up to 29 miles of range (this is charged via a plug), has a total range of 270 miles. It has a 4.3-kg fuel tank.
Some good news is that to fill one of the vehicles it is pretty much just like fueling a gasoline CR-V both in terms of procedure and time, something that can’t be said for battery-powered electric vehicles.
Still, with that cost of hydrogen, one really has to be dedicated to an environmental vehicle regardless of the fuel credits.
McLaren Automotive produces amazing rolling sculptures that (1) go exceedingly fast and (2) cost a non-trivial amount of money.
Supercars.
Not your run-of-the-road hybrid: the McLaren Artura (price tag: ~$237,500). (Image; McLaren)
Like all OEMs, McLaren is pursuing electrification.
Its CEO, Michael Leiters, thinks that the UK, where McLaren is based, needs to do more to facilitate the creation of a supply chain that would be more EV-intensive:
“Today, our hybrid McLaren Artura powertrain has 64% UK content. If this car was a pure EV, the UK content of the powertrain would reduce to 13% because we cannot currently source the relevant componentry in the UK,” Leiters says.
He argues that because the UK has specialization in vehicles that are at the top end—“Today it remains home to some of the world’s most admired performance car brands, as well as the majority of Formula 1 racing teams”—it would be beneficial were the UK government—which, incidentally, will get a new leader on July 4—to develop a plan for electrification:
“A clear industrial strategy, led by investment in the domestic supply-chain, will deliver growth, support jobs, help decarbonise the economy and secure a vibrant future for the UK performance car industry.”
Metaphorically waving the Union Jack:
“We must harness the skills, knowledge and ingenuity of the UK motorsport and performance car industry to create a global, high-performance centre of excellence.”
Leiters points out:
“UK-based luxury and sports car brands command tremendous pricing power thanks to their rich histories, intrinsic brand value and class-leading performance attributes.
“As a result, the productivity gross value added of McLaren employees is 51% higher than that of the UK automotive manufacturing sector as a whole.”
But here’s the thing:
McLaren sold just over 2,000 vehicles in 2023.
Highly productive McLaren workers notwithstanding, it probably isn’t making the Chancellor of the Exchequer overly exercised.
Leiters also pointed out:
“The UK was once the world’s largest vehicle exporter.”
While that’s not going to happen again, the question that should be asked by the next UK government is whether it should be investing to benefit the supercar manufacturers in the country or create a supply chain so that companies like Stellantis, which threatened earlier this week that it may stop producing vehicles in the UK (among its brands are Vauxhall, which was founded in London in 1857) due to EV rules, would consider it better to build in Britain than not.
It is not hard to imagine that at some point, as the issue of Dieselgate was still burbling like the surface of the La Brea Tar Pits, there was a meeting at Volkswagen HQ in Wolfsburg at which point someone smacked the surface of a conference room table and said, “Verdammt! We’re going to develop vehicles that are going to reestablish some green credentials for the company!”
So it set to work on its ID. line of vehicles. It introduced, in Germany, the ID.3, a small hatchback, in 2020. Because the company figured that Americans aren’t all that keen on small cars, its first in the new line of electric vehicles (there had been the e-Golf, but that was more of a novelty than a commercial product) for the U.S. was the ID.4, in 2021, a compact crossover.*
The ID.4 didn’t get much of a reception given that it was available with a maximum range of 260 miles, with most models south of that.
2024 VW ID.4. A highly credible EV crossover. (Image: VW)
A Pivot
The company dedicated to that proposition of going green has improved the ID.4 for 2024 in many ways, including improving the range to a maximum 291 miles (for the ID.4 Pro, driven here, and the ID.4 Pro S), which is close enough to that 300-mile mark that seems to be what people are looking for.
(And although the starting MSRP for the ID.4 Standard is $39,735 and it, like the others in the ’24 lineup, is eligible for the $7,500 federal tax credit, a 206-mile range probably is not a good thing from a marketing standpoint—not that that is the least range in an EV out there (the MINI Cooper SE is rated at 114 miles), but if someone goes into the dealership and hears that 206-mile number, they may be a bit turned off, even though for a few grand more they can get a model with an 82-kWh battery rather than the entry 62-kWh and get a more reasonable range.)
Performance
What’s more, the ID.4 Pro is peppy: the rear-drive model (VW points out that just like the original Beetle, the motor is in the back) produces 282 hp.
All of which is to say the range and performance have both been improved, so those who were lukewarm for the earlier entry may want to give the ’24 ID.4 consideration.
(And while this doesn’t strike me as a vehicle that anyone is going to be doing performance driving in—more likely something to load up with soccer gear or Costco cargo, and it can do a good job at that: cargo volume is 30.3 cubic feet behind the second row and 64.2 cubic feet with the seats folded—it does feature a vehicle dynamics control system that debuted on the Mk 8 Golf GTI.)
Driving
To drive the ID.4 one climbs into the driver’s seat while carrying the fob, then uses a stalk (similar to the automatic transmission gear selector of yore) to select forward or reverse by turning it. No key rotation or button push.
There is an option labeled “B.” This is for “Brake.” But what it does is increase the amount of regenerative braking automatically applied so that there is more otherwise-wasted energy put back into the battery. It doesn’t provide what’s known as “one-pedal driving,” meaning that when lifting on the accelerator the vehicle doesn’t come to a full stop. Apparently VW wanted a bit of normalcy for those who are used to driving vehicles with what is still by far the dominant form of propulsion.
Useful
Another thing addressed in the new model is the interface.
In the Pro (and other models) there is a 12.9-inch touchscreen interface configured for ready access to apps without layers of confusion. Along the top of the screen are icons for things like music, navigation, and battery; at the bottom there are HVAC settings. This means that regardless of what’s going on in the center of the screen, items that are regularly used are a finger touch away. Just below the display are illuminated touch sliders that can be used to adjust temperature although there is the ability to set the temp using the infotainment screen.
American-Made
An interesting thing about the ID.4 is that Volkswagen manufactures it in its plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee. It ranks #3 in the Cars.com 2024 American-Made Index. This not only means that it is the only non-Tesla in the Top 10, but Teslas aside, you have to scroll down the list to #56 to get to another Cars.com American-Made electric vehicle: the Ford F-150 Lightning. Yes, VW at #3, Ford at #56. Imagine.
All in all, the 2024 VW ID.4 is something that ought to be on the list of those who are considering a move to an EV.
(Why didn’t I simply say “on the list of those who are considering a new crossover”? Simple. In terms of size and capacity, the ID.4 is fairly close to the VW Tiguan, which has a starting MSRP of $28,880. And the VW Atlas, the largest SUV on offer, has a starting MSRP of $37,995. Yes, the $7,500 tax credit for the ID.4 makes it effectively less expensive than the Atlas, but the Atlas is still more substantive. You have to want to move to an EV.)
*VW has made a decided shift from cars to crossovers in the U.S. market, which has been improving its fortunes here. However, I’d argue that the company should have brought the ID.3 to the U.S. market. “But people don’t buy small cars,” you say. That is partially true, but you can still buy a Civic or an Elantra and others. What’s more, consider this: when VW brought the Beetle to the U.S. in 1949 it sold. . .two. But through the 1950s, when Americans otherwise weren’t buying small cars, to say nothing of small cars that looked like the Beetle, the vehicle managed to defy expectations. In a big way. And while on the subject of small cars, when GM was boasting about the number of EVs sold in 2023, the only vehicle that really made a difference to those numbers was the Bolt EV/EUV, which had sales of 62,045. As for the rest there were Silverado EV, 461; Hummer EV 3,244; Blazer EV, 482; Lyriq, 9,154. Yes, small cars can matter and I’d submit that VW could have done that with the ID.3.
The company has landed a $27.3-million order for the MET from the U.S. Army Contracting Command – Detroit Arsenal.
Oshkosh will work with its partner Broshuis B.V., a Netherlands-based trailer manufacturer, on the project.
How many METs will the Army get for $27.3-million?
57.
Roughly $479K each.
It is worth knowing, however, the MET is engineered to handle Bradley Fighting Vehicles (BFV), Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicles (AMPV), Paladin, and Field Artillery Ammunition Support Vehicles (FAASV), so its not like this is something that you’re going to find at Trailers R’ Us.
Seems like the EV slowdown is happening elsewhere, too
By Gary S. Vasilash
The South Korean-based brands—Hyundai, Kia and Genesis—are producing some of the most-appealing electric vehicles available in the U.S. market.
Award-winning Kia EV9 (Image:Kia)
Consider, for example: for the 2024 North American Car, Truck and Utility Vehicle of the Year Awards, the Hyundai Ioniq 6 was one of the three finalists in the Car category. The Genesis Electrified GV70, Hyundai Kona/Kona EV, and Kia EV9 were the three finalists; the EV9 received the award.
And, of course, these products (and others, too) are available to Korean consumers.
GlobalData has run numbers for how well electric vehicles are doing in the home market of those companies, and finds that through April 2024, zero-emissions vehicle sales in Korea, 97% of which are EVs and the balance fuel-cell vehicles, are down 17% compared with April 2023.
Meanwhile, hybrids (including plug-ins) are up by some 45%.
Why are EVs not doing so well? GlobalData suggests:
Early adopters have gotten them. The majority isn’t buying yet.
And on the subject of buying, there is the comparative higher costs of EVs.
Charging is a concern.
Residual value decreases make an EV purchase less appealing.
GlobalData points out that while there had been dismissiveness expressed by some pundits regarding hybrids as being a bridging technology between internal combustion engine vehicles and EVs, the numbers are showing that that is indeed the case.
The good news for Hyundai, Kia and Genesis is that they offer compelling hybrid products as part of their global portfolios, too.
The “Car Wars 2025-2028” study from Bank of America Securities includes an interesting assessment of what OEMs need to do.
Simply:
“Automotive manufacturers can compete through cost leadership, superior product, or product differentiation.”
As for the first, the analysts think this is likely “unachievable for most OEMs.” There is pretty much cost parity across the board. Which, no doubt, makes auto execs extremely nervous about the potential of low-cost Chinese vehicles being made available in the U.S. 100% tariffs may not be enough to get them through sleepless nights.
Superior product is certainly something all consumers are looking for. But the BoA folks say there has been “a convergence in product quality, as all automakers have improved to a relatively common level.” Based on findings from Consumer Reports and J.D. Power, “relatively common” is rather relative, as some OEMs are putting out significantly more superlative products.
While it is generally true that there are no longer any “bad cars,” there are much better cars than the not-bad choice.
And finally, there is product differentiation. The study has it that OEMs pursuit of this includes such things as new model introductions, unique models, increased vehicle technology, and “attempts to stand out with new EVs.”
But there is something else that they found, which seems to indicate that product differentiation is something that isn’t getting a whole lot of effort:
“The CUV segment is becoming increasingly saturated by new product, and across all price points (from higher-end, luxury European brands to lower-end, entry-level Korean brands), so little incremental benefit is likely to accrue to the industry as a whole, in our view.”
In fact, BoA projects that of the 223 new models to be launched for model years 2025 to 2028, 53% (121 units) will be CUVs.
Hard to be different when you’re doing the same thing.
So my neighbor, a guy in is mid-20s said: “I really like that car a lot. I quite nearly bought one.”
He was talking about the 2024 Volvo V90 Cross Country B6 AWD.
Volvo V90 Cross Country. OK. Maybe this doesn’t look like your neighborhood. But it takes a good-looking vehicle to hold its own with that impressive setting. (Image: Volvo)
Which is surprising for two reasons:
He is in his mid-20s
The car in question is a station wagon
He said that not only does he like the styling of the Volvo, but he’d taken one for a spin and thought it drove well.
To fill out this little vignette, know that he bought an Alfa Romeo Giula sedan instead.
He had had another Giulia, a Quadrifoglio, that he’d leased. He purchased the one now in his driveway.
He said he bought the Alfa because he likes the way it handles.
It is worth noting that in the first quarter of 2024 Alfa sold 640 Giulas in the U.S., so perhaps my neighbor is something of an outlier.
Style vs. Utility
The station wagon body style—more puzzling referred to in other markets as a “shooting brake” (not that “station wagon” isn’t odd: the “wagon” bit makes sense because it can carry goods, but the “station” part seems to indicate that it is something that is static, like a train station—has gone out of favor for the sport utility vehicle.
In part, this goes to the notion that the sport utility vehicle configuration provides utility. Presumably that means the ability to contain a lot of stuff, whether it is golf clubs or hockey gear, suitcases or Costco-sized personal paper items.
The V90 Cross Country provides 25.2 cubic feet of cargo capacity with the second-row seat back up and 69 cubic feet if that is folded down.
So let’s say someone opts for a Jeep Grand Cherokee. Let’s face it: that vehicle is the absolute poster child for an SUV with comfort and style. The Jeep, of course, has four-wheel drive, which makes it incredibly capable when the pavement has given way to an undeveloped surface.
The Volvo has all-wheel drive, which means that it is configured to handle things like snow (after all, Volvo HQ is in Sweden, so they know more than a little something about that).
For what most people are likely to encounter in their driving, AWD is the ticket.
Anyway. . .the Grand Cherokee offers 37.7 cubic feet behind the second row, which is significantly greater than what the Volvo provides, but the Grand Cherokee has 70.8 cubic feet of space with the second row back folded, so it is pretty much a wash.
The V90 Cross Country is longer than the Grand Cherokee—195.2 inches vs. 193.5 inches—but with mirrors folded narrower—74 inches vs. 77.5 inches—and a lot lower: a height of 60.5 inches vs. 70.8 inches. All of which is to say that doing a bit of geometry explains the differences in capacity.
Looks Right. Drives Right.
But let’s get back to my neighbor.
He said he finds the styling of the Volvo appealing, which goes to show that the company has gone a long way from when it seemed as though the designers were kitted with a T-square and right-triangle. It could also go to the point that it very well may be that given the endless proliferation of SUVs and crossovers there may be a small-but-growing group of people who are looking for alternatives.
Yes, he didn’t buy the Volvo, but he did buy a sedan.
Also, he said that he thought the Cross Country handled well. Presumably this has something to do with the vehicle having a lower center of gravity than, say, an SUV.
The Volvo is a mild hybrid. Which means that there is, in addition to the regular 12-Volt battery, a 48-Volt battery that recovers some of the energy produced by braking and stores it until it is used when it works through an integrated starter-generator to provide assistance when starting from a stop.
The vehicle has a 2-liter turbocharged four-cylinder engine. It is mated to an eight-speed automatic. There are 295 hp and 310 lb-ft of torque. All of which is to say that it comports itself as you would expect something like a station wagon to. What’s more, it has a maximum towing capacity of 3,500 pounds. Combined fuel economy is 25 mpg.
Volvo has gone all-in with Google, so there are Google Maps, Google Assistant and Google Play. (Yes, it does support CarPlay.)
Will the Era End?
Swinging back to the Giulia, as previously mentioned, there weren’t a whole lot sold in the U.S. in Q1 2024.
But there were fewer V90 Cross Country models sold during that same period: 164.
At some point, perhaps, more people are going to want to get something that they don’t see in every other driveway on their block. On mine there is an array of F-150s.
And a Giulia.
But I suspect that car makers—Alfa and Volvo alike—are going to have to phase out things that are not gaining traction.
Market churn and vehicle costs are making a big difference on program launches
By Gary S. Vasilash
Pity the product planner.
Pity the consumers of vehicles near the end of the decade.
The first is one of the things that John Murphy, senior U.S. Auto Analyst for Bank of America Securities, in effect, said at an Automotive Press Association meeting held yesterday in a BoA facility in Farmington Hills, Michigan.
Or, in Murphy’s words, “The unprecedented EV head-fake over the last three years has wreaked havoc on product planning. The prior acceleration in EV launches is doing a U-turn in favor of extending ICE programs and new hybrids. However, while there is a lot of talk about hybrids, there isn’t much action. The next four+ years will be some of the most uncertain and volatile in product strategy ever.”
So while it wasn’t all that long ago that people talked about how EVs had it the “tipping point” and henceforth they would be the powertrain of choice, comparative consumer indifference has led to a reconsideration of what had thought to be fait accompli.
Pity the product planner who has to explain why what was to be a winner is just doing OK—at best.
As part of the BoA Car Wars proprietary analysis, which Murphy has been working on, it is determined that looking ahead—from model years 2025 to 2028—the rate of alternative powertrain launches—which includes hybrids—is being trimmed back a bit, with what had thought to be 79 launches in MY 2025-26 being reduced by one and launches in MY 2027-28 being down from 123 to 112.
Remember: there only seemed to be upside in that space not all that long ago.
Enjoy your opulent interior while it is still there
As for the consumers: Murphy explained that Tesla has figured out how to build cost-effective EVs in a way that the traditional OEMs haven’t. Unless the traditional can design and engineer vehicles that are just as cost effective, then while they will eat into Telsa’s market share, they won’t impact Tesla’s profitability.
Murphy said the place where the traditionals really need to focus their cost-cutting efforts are on things like the structure of the vehicle and the creature comforts (or lack thereof).
Consider: you’re unlikely to hear someone tout the comfortable cabin experience in a Tesla, but there have been plenty of thumbs-up for the interior of the Cadillac Lyriq.
But if Cadillac really wants to compete with Tesla, then that interior needs some significant change—which may not be beneficial so far as the customer is concerned.
What does Murphy recommend the traditional domestic OEMs do while they try to figure out how to get those costs out of EVs?
Go to where the money is.
Concentrate on pickup trucks with internal combustion engines.
In order to get change, thing evidently also have to stay the same.
Yes, Murphy said, the trend is still going EV. But not quite as rapidly as seemed to be the case.
If you’ve ever been in an automotive plant you’ve undoubtedly been surprised by the number of forklift trucks zipping around that are transporting parts, equipment and various other things that go into building things.
An autonomous vehicle operating in a BMW plant–capable of handling 55 tonnes. (Image: BMW)
The BMW Group Plant Regensburg is quite similar to other state-of-the-art factories. . .but then there’s this, which apparently is something that doesn’t exist elsewhere: Its uses of an electric lidar-equipped transport vehicle.
What’s notable is not only that this is an autonomous vehicle, but that it transports payloads up to 55 tonnes.
It operates at speeds up to 2.5 mph.
“Not fast,” you think. But (1) it is inside a facility where people are working, so speed is relative, and (2) it is carrying up to 55 tonnes of steel—not the sort of thing you want to bump into.
The autonomous vehicle operates in the factory’s stamping operation. It is used to transport tools for the presses—there are four press lines that turn some 1,100 tonnes of steel into approximately 131,000 stamped parts (e.g., side frames, door outers, hoods) per day—as well as steel blanks that are turned into those parts.
Ever wonder why Western governments are concerned about their domestic auto manufacturers?
By Gary S. Vasilash
The U.S. is applying big tariffs on electric vehicles from China (as in 100%), and the European Union, moderately big (38%). (Apparently the Chinese are doing a bit of retaliation, as it has opened an investigation into pork products exported from the EU.)
Some numbers from GlobalData provide a sense of the sort of numbers associated with Chinese vehicle manufacture that are concerning to those in the U.S. and Europe.
Looking at sales of passenger vehicles in China from January to through April, there was an increase of 5.5% year-over-year to 6.3 million units.
But the red flag is this number: a rise in production by 9%, or 7.6 million units.
Simply: 1.3 million more passenger vehicles made than sold.
This means overcapacity. Which also means that companies are probably interested in finding markets where they can offload those excess vehicles.
And while the 7.6 million number is all passenger vehicles, not just those with batteries in addition to the 12-V battery under the hood, in April there were 424,0000 vehicles exported from China, a year-over-year increase of 36.9%.
And those joint ventures. . .
Once, Western brands were almost giddy when it came to the opportunity to create joint ventures in China with Chinese companies. The market size was (and is) nothing short of amazing.
GlobalData finds that when it comes to NEVs—or “New Energy Vehicles,” which are the hybrids and full EVs—the penetration rate of Chinese local brands was close to 60% of the market, up 7% from the same period last year, while the joint venture brands have a penetration rate of 12%–still up from last year’s number. But only 1%.
So one can expect the Chinese OEMs that produce NEVs to up the production of those vehicles, which will undoubtedly lead to overcapacity there, too, which means they’ll have to do something to do with those vehicles.
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