To be sure, the future is uncertain, but these numbers should chill some EV product planners. . .

By Gary S. Vasilash

In 2024 in the U.S. Ford delivered 1,793,541 light vehicles powered by internal combustion engines.

In 2024 the total number of light vehicles delivered in the U.S. was some 15.9 million units.

If we take the number of Ford ICE vehicles sold, that’s about 11% of the whole market.

According to AutoPacific, in 2024 the total number of electric vehicles (EVs) delivered in the U.S. represented 8% of the market.

That would be 1,272,000 vehicles.

While that is not a trivial number, it is still about half-a-million shy of the number of vehicles that Ford alone sold with internal combustion engines.

You’d think with the billions invested in the vehicles and attendant technology the numbers would be somewhat larger for EVs now.

They aren’t.

AutoPacific has some new numbers that adjust the number of EVs to be sold in the U.S. market, an adjustment that the Federal tax credit of $7,500 that expires on September 30 plays no small roll in.

Or, as Ed Kim, AutoPacific president and chief analyst puts it:  “The EV market in the U.S. is headed for a rough patch with market share growth stalled due to multiple factors related to lack of affordability.”

And the elimination of the tax credit will make the vehicles less affordable.

Last year AutoPacific made projections of what it anticipated the size of the market would be.

And across the board, they are adjusted in a downward direction. And not a trivial decline:

Even with all of the claims of less-expensive, longer-range and quicker-charging EVs coming within a few years’ time, going forward the AutoPacific forecast shows serious declines.