Tag Archives: EV sales

Survey Reveals OEMs’ Anticipation of EV Market Penetration

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Well, optimism is always a good thing to have. . .

By Gary S. Vasilash

The Kerrigan Advisors 2025 OEM survey—which was conducted from December 2024 to March 2025, so it is pre-tariff—indicate that OEM execs are still bullish on the prospects for electric vehicles in the U.S. market.

Asked what their expectation is for EV market share by 2025—presumably that would be “by the end of 2025”—the largest cohort, 46%, answered 10% to 20%. While that bandwidth may have included a lot of 10%s and 11%, it still shows a certain sense of bullishness among these execs.

The second largest cohort, 40%, answered 7% to 10%.

So either way, there is a solid number of execs who see things growing, which is reasonable given the amount of new EVs that are being rolled out.

(The remaining 14% of respondents: 8% say 21% to 30% market share, 2% 31 to 40%, 3% 41% to 50%, and 1% greater than 50%. It would be interesting to know who that 1% is.)

That said, they are willing to admit that the EV transition isn’t happening as quickly as anticipated.

80% say that it is going slower than planned. 10% say faster than planned and 9% as planned.

Still, there is an evident stick-to-it-ness among the OEMs.

One question that might seem ominous—remember that in 2024 Elon Musk said that if Chinese EVs come into the U.S. market they would “pretty much demolish” U.S. OEMs—has it that 76% of OEMs “think Chinese OEMs will eventually enter the U.S. market.”

While “eventually” is possibly a long time, perhaps that recognition that it may happen will allow the U.S. OEMs to make the necessary countermeasures.

VW Group Isn’t the Only OEM “Challenged”

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By Gary S. Vasilash

When you see the word challenge in any form in a financial announcement, know that this really means some variant of “we are really struggling but don’t want to make it seem as though we are anything other than in control.”

(Image: VW Group)

When Volkswagen Group announced its 2023 financial results there were:

Oliver Blume, CEO: “Volkswagen Group is entering the long-distance rate of transformation from a position of strength. At the same time, we are aware of our challenges and are tackling them consistently to leverage the enormous potential of Volkswagen Group.”

Arno Antlitz, CFO and COO: “In a challenging environment, Volkswagen Group delivered robust results in 2023.”

While the company has said that it expects 50% of sales to be electric vehicles by 2030, for the full year in 2023 Group EV sales were 8.3%. So essentially it has six years to add 41.7%.

In the release about its earnings there’s this:

“Volkswagen Group is convinced that the future of mobility is electric. While some countries continue to show an impressive pace of transformation, the ramp-up of electric mobility in other regions is unfolding less quickly than expected. Volkswagen Group’s strategy is therefore characterised by flexibility. While extensive investments are being made in the expansion of electric mobility, highly competitive, efficient, and attractive models with combustion engines will remain part of the product range during the transition phase. Improved and new plug-in hybrids complement the range in many markets.”

Which could be restated as:

“We’ve bet big on EVs and are seeing returns in some areas but not like we’d hoped overall. So we figure we’d better be sure to continue to offer things that have internal combustion engines under their hoods, with or without hybrid systems attached.”

Of course, placing bets is about the future.

If VW Group doesn’t ante up on what seems as though it will play out (i.e., at some point there will be a bona-fide acceptance of EVs by a mass market, not the level of acceptance that has been puffed up (take Tesla numbers out of the sales of EVs in the West and see how well they are doing)), then it will be in a bad situation at the point that it does.

But playing is not without a cost.

It, like other OEMs, are investing billions in electrification.

There are a couple of things that are going to make receiving a return somewhat problematic:

  1. Tepid consumer interest
  2. Cheap Chinese EVs

And it isn’t VW Group alone that needs to consider its play in relation to those two factors.

Which makes it all the more. . .challenging.