Tag Archives: IDTechEx

Shuttering Shuttle Ops

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Roboshuttles are facing a challenging route

By Gary S. Vasilash

One of the issues related to things like roboshuttles, small bus-like vehicles that can operate autonomously, carrying, say, about a dozen passengers, vehicles that are often described as providing “last mile” transportation, is that for most people who need something for that last mile, as they’ve been needing it for a while they have undoubtedly figured out a method of accomplishing it.

It may not be the most efficient way, but it (a) works and (b) old habits die hard.

That chart shows roboshuttle companies going in the wrong direction. (Image: IDTechEx)

This could be one reason why research organization IDTechEx has found that between 2020 and 2024 the number of companies globally involved in the roboshuttle market went from 25 to 12.

A fairly sharp drop.

IDTechEX points out:

  • Navya, which was a leader in the space, had some issues that led it to be acquired by two companies, one of which is likely to acquire the company that they’d relaunched from the Navya acquisition
  • ZF has shifted from developing and building shuttles to producing hardware and software for autonomous operation; its shuttle business has been taken over by two other companies, Oceaneering and Beep
  • May Mobility, which had been operating compact bus-like vehicles from Polaris GEM, is shifting to using Toyota Sienna minivans, just like the ones you can pick up from a local dealer (albeit without the autonomous capability that May adds)

As IDTechEX puts it, “The primary challenge facing the roboshuttle industry lies in the difficulty of finding practical commercial applications.”

Practicality and financial viability are two elements that cannot be underestimated.

Electric Big Rigs?

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By Gary S. Vasilash

Although it seems as though the only electric truck that is garnering outsized attention is the Tesla Cybertruck, big trucks-as in medium- and heavy-duty cargo haulers—have considerable upside.* (Of course anything starting from a low base can have a big upside.)

As is the case with light-duty vehicles (trucks and otherwise) research firm IDTechEx finds that innovations in battery tech and a build-out of more charging are essential for the growth of battery-electric trucks. (Its new report “Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2024-2044: Markets, Technologies, and Forecasts” also looks at fuel cells, but we’ll let that go.)

No surprise that a lot of electric heavy-duty trucks were sold in China between January and June 2023: 11,500 of them.

By comparison, between Q1 and Q3 ’23 there were just over 6,000 electric trucks sold in the European Union, European Free Trade Association and United Kingdom, combined.

And in the EU, Germany and the Netherlands accounted for 65% of the 3,918 electric trucks sold during the first three quarters of ’23.

However, it is worth knowing that electric trucks represent a mere 1.5% of the EU market.

As for the U.S., IDTechEx forecasts that zero-emissions trucks could represent 13% of the medium- and heavy-duty truck sales by 2030.

Generally, estimates have light-duty EV sales being on the order of ~30% by 2030, so that 13% may say something about the durability, capability, usability, and economy of diesel engines.

However, zero-emissions they aren’t.

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*Yes, there is the Tesla Semi. But it is, comparatively speaking, somewhat stealthy at this point.