The EV Market May Not Be What Some Think It Will Be

By Gary S. Vasilash

There must be—and certainly ought to be—some consternation this week at GM HQ.

International consulting and accounting firm KPMG came out with its 23rd Global Automotive Executive Survey, with responses from execs in and related to the auto industry. More than 900 of them from 30 countries.

When asked to rank the companies they think will have a leadership position in electric vehicles by 2030, it went like this:

  1. Tesla
  2. Audi
  3. BMW
  4. Apple
  5. Ford
  6. Honda
  7. BYD
  8. Hyundai-Kia
  9. Mercedes
  10. Toyota
  11. Baidu
  12. Fisker

Look what’s not on the list. And I don’t mean VW, though that is absent, too.

Yes, Apple is on the list. It was last year, too. Then it was in 8th position. Clearly there are more than a few people in the industry that see something that many of us don’t (i.e., Why should Apple bother getting into a low-margin industry? It is unlikely that it could get considerably more in the way of subscription monies than it already has.)

There is another somewhat troubling survey results across the board.

On the question of what percentage of the market battery electric vehicles will have in 2030:

  • U.S.:             29%
  • China:          24%
  • Europe:        24%

While there is some evident optimism regarding the potential uptake of EVs in the U.S., 29% surely isn’t the 50% that is regularly bandied about by domestic OEMs.

And while some may think the 29% average is satisfactory, the median may give them more joy: 35%.

Until they find out that the median number for the percentage of EVs in the U.S. market by 2030 in last year’s KPMG survey was 65%

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