Those Skeptics will change their outlook

By Gary S. Vasilash

Of the 100% of people who are planning to purchase a new or used vehicle in the next two years, Cox Automotive finds that 55% are “Considerers,” as in considering an electric vehicle and the remaining 45% are “Skeptics,” as in interested only in internal combustion engines.

From a demographic point of view, the Considerers are probably more appealing to dealers in that they have a higher average income than the Skeptics ($71,756 v. $60,625) and are younger (42 v. 46), which means they may have more vehicles in their future.

However, speaking of the future, Cox Automotive personnel expect that within the next three to five years 54% of the Skeptics will become Considerers, then an additional 26% in 10 years, meaning there will just be 20% remaining dedicated to combustion.

It is interesting to note that as for now, when it comes to barriers to EV adoption Considerers rank as 1 and 2 “Too expensive” and “Lack of charging stations,” while Skeptics flip the order of those two.

What is an interesting difference in barrier rankings is that for the Skeptics “Inability to charge EV at home” is in third place (tied with “Concern about battery losing charge”) while it is in fifth (or last) place for the Considerers.

Which presumably means home charging is acutely important for EV sales.

There are some potentially concerning numbers regarding the Considerers, however.

For example, in 2023 the EV Buyer was 41 years old, had an average household income of $139,00 and 84% of them had excellent/very good credit.

In 2024 the Considerer is 42, has an average household income of $72,000 and 53% of them have excellent/very good credit.

Still, according to Isabelle Helms, vice president of Research and Market Intelligence at Cox Automotive, “We remain bullish on the long-term future of EV sales in America, as many Skeptics today will be carefully considering an EV by the end of the decade. With more infrastructure, education, and technological innovation and improvements, we believe electric vehicle sales will continue to grow in the long term.”

One thinks about Keynes’ quote regarding the long run. . . .