shinymetalboxes

Cars, culture & contingent considerations

Chips: Yes There Is a Difference

Posted on April 13, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Back in ’92, Michael Boskin, then Bush 41 economic advisor, said it didn’t matter whether a country produced potato chips or microchips. Guess what?

By Gary S. Vasilash

“CEO Summit on Semiconductor and Supply Chain Resilience.”

That’s what a meeting held yesterday in Washington and Cyberspace was named, which included CEOs from a number of companies, including General Motors, Ford and Stellantis.

The point is that there is no resilience in the supply chain for semiconductors.

Evidently it is something that hadn’t been deemed to be necessary.

But then there was the pandemic.

Then people suddenly started working from home. Students started studying from home.

And there was a recognition that—oops!—the home compute equipment wasn’t (1) up to snuff and/or (2) not in sufficient numbers to accommodate the whole family.

Meanwhile, people at companies like Sony and Microsoft were busy working on their new gaming consoles. And things like PlayStations and Xboxes require sophisticated microprocessors.

The auto industry shut down for a couple of months last year. There were thoughts that it would be down for longer.

When you’re not making cars and trucks you don’t need lots of things, from steel to tires to. . .semiconductors.

But the auto industry came back.

And the number of semiconductors on the shelves began decreasing—and not replenished just-in-time, or at any time.

Some vehicles were built without control modules that would be added later. Which is not exactly a tenable way of doing things.

So factories were put on hold. When you don’t have the parts, you can’t build the vehicles.

Consequently, the meeting in Washington.

Within the Biden $2-trillion infrastructure plan there is money—some $50-billion—for semiconductor manufacture.

Odds are, the $2-trillion infrastructure plan is going to remain just that. A plan. It is going to be difficult to get sufficient support to pass it.

President Biden told attendees at the meeting that there is bi-partisan support for addressing the semiconductor dearth.

There ought to be. Left or right, urban or rural, 99% or 1%–this country’s infrastructure is predicated on private vehicle drivership and everyone needs one (or economic access to one).

As vehicles get more technologically sophisticated, the number of chips needed is only going to grow.

If this issue isn’t significantly and substantially addressed, then not only is this going to affect the vehicle manufacturers, but everyone who would like to get a new vehicle.

Creating a Micromobility Company

Posted on April 12, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

A surprising story about the use case for electric mopeds

By Gary S. Vasilash

Matt Brueggeman says that when he was growing up in suburban Chicago, his family had three Chevy Tahoes. He acknowledges that they were good vehicles. But he also admits that it occurred to him that the Tahoe wasn’t the most efficient vehicle to transport a single person to, say, go visit a nearby friend or to go pickup a carton of milk.

After graduating from the University of Wisconsin, where he studied Chinese, he moved to Beijing for six years.

While there the absurdity of the Tahoe really became evident to him, as he watched people riding on electric mopeds.

The Flux EM1: It won’t replace a car. But it offers an alternative for those quick trips. (*Image: Flux Mopeds*)

When he returned to Madison he and his colleagues decided to start a company to allow people to sensibly take local trips. Brueggeman is the co-founder and CEO of Flux Mopeds.

With time, research and development they came up with the Flux EM1. It is an electric moped that has a limited range—50 miles on two batteries. A limited top speed—38 mph. A limited capacity—300 pounds.

It also has a comparatively limited MSRP: $2,400.

And on this edition of “Autoline After Hours” Brueggeman talks about how the vehicle came to be and how it is doing in the market. He talks with “Autoline’s” John McElroy, John Beltz Snyder of Autoblog Green and me.

Brueggeman explains that while the mopeds are produced in China there was extensive engineering developed in the U.S. He says that while the owner of a moped in China can get a broken part fixed by a corner repair shop, that’s not the case in the U.S., so they’ve engineered the units to be as robust and reliable as possible.

He says that the company is keeping its costs down by not selling through dealerships and not carrying inventory: it is build to order.

And while you might think that this is a vehicle that would be on college campuses or being ridden in downtowns by urban hipsters, Brueggeman says that the big market for the company is. . .RV owners. (Why tow a car when you can stick an EM1 on the back?)

If you’re interested in micromobility, you’ve got to watch this show. Right here.

Would It Be Called the “iCar” or “Apple Car”?

Posted on April 9, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

That assumes it (1) is a car and not a different type of vehicular architecture and (2) comes to exist

By Gary S. Vasilash

Apple’s head Tim ~~Apple~~ Cook talked with the New York Times’ Kara Swisher earlier this week and had some interesting comments about what is reportedly known as “Project Titan,” the Apple vehicle project that seems to be one of those on again, off again undertakings.

There is something, based if nothing else than the fact that there are Apple-owned vehicles that are racking up miles in California, according to the state’s DMV.

Three interesting quotes from Cook:

“An autonomous car is a robot.” Generally we think of robots as things that have arms, not tires. But in terms of the sensors and processors and the fact that it is meant to perform specific tasks under various conditions, that is indeed the case.
“We love to ingrate hardware, software and services, and find the intersection points of those because we think that’s where the magic occurs.” Perhaps this indicates that if there is going to be a vehicle, there is going to be some serious vertical integration going on: Apple doing most of it. (Which leads to the question about producing the vehicle, because this is a difficult thing to do. Of course, there are no capital constraints that Apple would face in terms of facilities, resources and people, so maybe it could pull a DIY.)
“We investigate so many thinks internally. Many of these never see the light of day. I’m not saying this one will not.” Of course, he’s also not saying this one will. For some reason motor vehicles (that’s motor as in “electric motor”) have become interesting things to all manner of tech companies. Remember when Detroit was dismissed as the “Rust Belt”? Now it seems that vehicle development and manufacturing—although not necessarily being done in the Rust Belt—seems to be an appealing thing for tech companies large and small, from lidar companies none of us have ever heard of to, well, Apple.

Remember When Nissan Was Noticeable?

Posted on April 8, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Not all that long ago the Japanese Big Three were Toyota, Honda and Nissan. Nowadays the last-named seems to have lost its momentum in the market while the other two keep driving forward. Why?

By Gary S. Vasilash

“Remember when driving was fun?” actress Brie Larson opens a new Nissan commercial rhetorically asking before she blitzes her way through the array of new vehicles that Nissan has launched, or is about to.

At one point she’s being the wheel of the Z Proto and acknowledges that there are three pedals down there. Enthusiasts will get it. Others may be confused.

Will Brie boost Nissan? (*Image: Nissan*)

Nissan is rolling out 10 new or improved products over 20 months, so its showrooms will be fresh with sheet metal.

For those who are interested in one-pedal driving, Larson drives in a Nissan Ariya, the new EV that is anticipated to launch this year. (EV drivers will get it. Others may be confused.)

Although Nissan showed improvement in the first quarter, with its sales up 14.8% from Q1 2020, it really isn’t a good reflection of what it has on offer right now.

Consider: the Nissan Division had sales of 266,482 units. That’s Versa, Sentra, Altima, Maxima, LEAF, 370Z, GT-R, Kicks, Frontier, Titan, Pathfinder, Armada, Rogue, Murano, NV, and NV200.

Ford sold 277,233 trucks. F-Series, Ranger, E-Series, Transit, Transit Connect, and Heavy Trucks. 203,797 of those were F-Series.

What accounts for Nissan’s lack of traction in the market is certainly mystifying.

The question is whether Captain Marvel will save the day.

The Auto Market Right Now

Posted on April 7, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Yes, it is hot, as the pent-up demand looks for a release valve. But. . .

“The quarter ended strong, setting the market up for an incredible spring from a demand perspective, with $1,400 stimulus payments starting to be issued, tax refund season beginning, rising consumer sentiment because of the vaccination progress, and, literally, it is spring which normally causes people to think more about buying vehicles. All those things are coming together right now, and the industry would likely be setting all-time sales records if it were not for tight supplies and elevated prices.”—Jonathan Smoke, chief economist, Cox Automotive

It’s that second thing that can be troubling.

According to Experian, in 2020 U.S. consumer debt was $14.88 trillion, which is a 6% increase compared to 2019 and the highest growth rate in more than a decade.

And of that, auto loan debt was at an all-time high of $1.35 trillion, a 3.8% increase over 2019.

Gen X has the largest auto loan debt balance, at $22,307, followed by the Boomers, at $19,306, which is just ahead of the Millennials, at $19,011.

(Seems like Gen X is big on debt, as it leads all generations in all categories, including credit card debt, student loans and mortgages.)

Toyota, Subaru and “Ever-better Cars”

Posted on April 6, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

A new 86/BRZ is being launched. But this is about a different approach

By Gary S. Vasilash

Toyota and Subaru developed a car that is tailored for each brand’s character, the 86 for Toyota and the BRZ for Subaru. The collaborative vehicle, which was launched in 2012, is built by neither, but by Magna in a plant in Austria.

The companies have introduced the new version of the vehicle, the GR 86 for Toyota and still BRZ for Subaru.

What is interesting to note about this is that the companies have developed the rear-drive vehicle with a bigger engine—no surprise there—but they’ve gone from a 2.0-liter to a 2.4-liter that produces 232 hp.

Yes, bigger, but not in the least bit like the mill that would be likely installed in an American performance vehicle.

(Performance? According to Toyota, 0 to 100 km/h (this is a global intro, so km) in 6.3 seconds. This is an improvement from the previous car, which was 7.4 seconds.)

This is a lithe vehicle: it weighs just 2,800 lb.

If it is like the previous generation—and it probably is—then when you’re behind the wheel you feel like you’re wearing it, not just driving it.

This is a sentence from the press release that is worth pondering: “Going forward, Toyota and Subaru intend to further ally their respective strengths, deepen their relationship, and so pursue the possibilities of making ever-better cars.”

It isn’t often you hear car companies about creating “ever-better cars.”

Strange that they don’t.

Laudable that Toyota and Subaru do.

Automotive Encyclopedias

Posted on April 5, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

A historian and a design strategist walk into a virtual studio. . . .

By Gary S. Vasilash

If a person who was interested in a career in the auto industry did just one of the things that Karl Ludvigson has done in his time on the scene, that would be a notable accomplishment.

Ludvigson has been a:

Designer at General Motors
PR guy at GM
VP of Corporate Affairs at Fiat Motors of North America
Technical editor of Auto Age and Sports Car Illustrated
Editor-in-Chief of Car and Driver
VP of Ford of Europe

And there are more items on his resume.

In addition to which he has been deeply involved in motor sports, which has given rise to a book shelf worth of tomes on racers including Jackie Stewart, Juan Manuel Fangio, Emerson Fittipaldi and more.

He has written another shelf’s-worth on companies including Porsche and Ferrari, on specific vehicle, and even on vehicle components.

His knowledge of the auto industry is, in a word, breathtaking.

Ostensibly, Ludvigson came on this edition of “Autoline After Hours” to promote his most-recent volume, Fast Friends, in which he writes about an array of people who he had the opportunity to know. But functionally, Ludvigson shares a portion of his wealth of knowledge not only about people he has known, but about the design and development of a number of important vehicles.

Joining him on the show—in addition to “Autoline’s” John McElroy and me—is Jim Hall, a walking Wikipedia of automotive knowledge and recent GM retiree, who was working on strategic design before he departed the automaker.

This is a show where the depth of discussion of, primarily, the recent past of the auto industry is discussed, although how those developments have come to affect what is on the road today is revealed, with a particular emphasis on automotive design, which Ludvigson and Hall are particularly well-versed in.

And while this may sound as though it may be a dry recitation of what once was with a glance at what is, know that it is anything but.

And you can see the show in its entirety here.

Q1 Sales Surprises

Posted on April 2, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Yes, customers are back. But some of what they’re buying is surprising.

By Gary S. Vasilash

Although it was April Fool’s Day when the first quarter 2021 numbers for U.S. sales were announced by OEMs, the smiles were real in offices across the land as the SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) rose to approximately 16.5-million units, or about a 12% sales increase compared to Q1 2020, which, of course, contained the first month of the pandemic in America.

2021 Toyota Prius Prime. There was a 70.6% sales increase for the model in Q1 2021. Who saw that coming? (*Image: Toyota*)

This wasn’t supposed to happen

Plenty of people who seem to have a particular affection for liking the use of fossil fuel and has therefore been gloating over the fact that Toyota Prius sales have been dropping must have gotten a surprise. Despite that fact gasoline prices have been low for the past several months and still under $3.00 per gallon ($2.85 in the U.S. as of now, according to the Energy Information Agency), Prius sales rose 22.4% in Q1, to 14,050 units. (For a not apples-to-apples comparison: Chevy sold 7,089 Camaros during Q1.)

What is more striking is that all Toyota hybrids had a combined 152% increase, to 125,318 units. (“Thank you, RAV4,” they must be saying down in Plano.)

***

The Big Three?

Remember when that was General Motors, Ford and Chrysler?

GM is still big. Overall sales of 642,250 vehicles.

The other Two, however:

Ford, including Lincoln, had sales of 521,334.

FCA, including Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, Fiat, Alfa Romeo, had sales of 469,651.

Toyota, including Lexus, 603,066. That’s a lot more than either Ford or FCA.

***

This wasn’t supposed to happen, 2

Everyone knows that (1) sedans are nearly dead in the market and (2) economical vehicles are so 2010.

Nissan, including Infiniti, had a good first quarter, with overall sales of 285,553 vehicles, which is a 10.8% increase over Q1 2020.

But there are two absolute standout vehicles in the Nissan lineup:

Versa: 22,394 vehicles, or an 83.9% increase
Sentra: 37,238 vehicles, or a 55.9% increase

Admittedly, crossovers like the Kicks (24,421 units) and the Rogue (86,720) were big contributors, the fact that the Versa and the Sentra did so well ought to make some analysts reconsider that whole “Cars are on life support” position.

***

This puts March 21 vs. March 20 in perspective

In March 2020 Hyundai delivered 35,118 vehicles.

In March 2021 Hyundai delivered 75,403 vehicles.

That is a 115% increase.

Still: Wear a mask.

Made You Look, Didn’t I?

Posted on April 1, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

There are jokes. And things that fall flat. And things that have consequences. And something in between. Which isn’t particularly good.

By Gary S. Vasilash

“You’ve got a spider on your head!”

“Taylor Swift is on the phone.”

“There’s a unicorn in the backyard—come see, quick!”

Today in the U.S. people of all ages are saying things like that. It is April Fool’s Day.

Are those characteristics supposed to be a joke, too? (*Image: Volkswagen of America*)

For the past several years automotive companies have been participating in pranks. They distribute news releases on April 1 describing things from flying cars to flux capacitors.

The more plausible, the more funny they tend to be.

Earlier this week, on Monday, there was a “leak” that Volkswagen of America was going to change its name to “Voltswagen of America.”

Reporters contacted sources that substantiated that yes, VoA was going to be doing that. The rationale was that it really wanted to emphasize that it is going to be an all-electric brand.

Right now VoA has one electric vehicle, the ID.4.

On Tuesday, the company sent out a news release with the headline:

Voltswagen: A new name for a new era of e-Mobility

The opening sentence: “Today, Volkswagen Group of America, is unveiling the official change of its U.S. brand name from Volkswagen of America to Voltswagen of America.”

There was a link to the company’s media webpage.

(Those of a grammatical bent might have thought there was something awry because of that second comma, which shouldn’t be there.)

The dateline on that release: “Herndon, VA, March 30, 2021.”

Herndon is where VoA is headquartered.

Now the company is claiming that this is all an April Fool’s joke.

Let’s see:

–April Fool’s Day: April 1, 2021

–VW press release: March 30

–VW denial: March 31; the press release was scrubbed from the site

If it is a joke, then it wasn’t very well executed.

If you told your significant other, who was going to be leaving for an important meeting, that their car had a flat tire and then said “April Fool’s!” when it was March 30, you probably would be spending that night on the couch.

There are those who say that this isn’t a big deal, that it is simply something along the lines of P.T. Barnum’s “I don’t care what the newspapers say about me as long as they spell my name right.”

But in this case, the name wasn’t being spelled correctly.

The people trying to minimize this say that “regular people,” not those who are obsessed with the auto industry, probably don’t pay much attention to this.

I would suggest that this story had national attention and while it didn’t shake anyone to their core, “regular people” heard “Volkswagen” and words associated with denial and retraction.

Maybe the last time they heard the word “Volkswagen” on their local news “diesel” was linked to it.

VW’s market share in the U.S. is small. The company, which is #1 or #2 in Europe, depending on the month, is way down the list in the U.S. market.

The people in Wolfsburg are probably quite frustrated at this.

VW is going electric in a big way. So far that big way is in Europe and China.

In the U.S., not yet.

But this whole thing has done nothing to improve its reputation in this market.

And that’s the problem. They need to get people into dealerships to buy vehicles to increase their market share. One of the ways they could do this is by selling more EVs.

I’ve driven the ID.4 and I think it is a very good car, something that could make “regular people” go to an EV.

But if those regular people are skeptical about VW and are interested in an EV (and let’s face it: there aren’t a whole lot of them right now), they could conceivably go to their local Ford or Chevy dealer for a Mach-E or Bolt EUV.

Right now I am test driving a 2021 VW Golf GTI 2.0T Autobahn and think that it is the best car that I’ve had the opportunity to be in during the first quarter of 2021: Inside, outside and under the hood, this is what seems to me to be a well-executed machine that is the definition of affordable German engineering. A superb car.

It would be a shame if people stay away from VW vehicles because they think there is something foolish about the company.

P.T. Barnum also allegedly said, “There’s no such thing as bad publicity.”

Yes there is.

By the way: There’s ink on your nose.*

*Ignore this after April 1.

What That Semiconductor Shortage Could Mean to You

Posted on March 31, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Your phone may become far more advanced than your vehicle

By Gary S. Vasilash

Here’s something not to look forward to, according to Tom Blackie, founder and CEO of VNC Automotive, a Cambridge, UK-based car connectivity and telematics software developer for OEMs:

“Our customers are experiencing serious supply issues, with some making big long-term commitments in order to get any kind of guaranteed supply, and the implications are much higher costs.”

But here’s the dropping of the proverbial other shoe:

“This will ultimately impact consumers, who will be left with stagnated systems or, in extreme cases, retrograde technology as manufacturers and tier 1 suppliers are forced to hobble systems to work with less advanced semiconductor designs. . . . [W]e’re concerned that it will lead to a generation of cars that will become quickly incompatible with future mobile phones and connectivity technology.”

Swell.