Ford Sells a Lot of Trucks. Again.

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By Gary S. Vasilash

For those of you still humming Mariah Carey’s “All I Want For Christmas Is You,” here’s a bit of context for an announcement Ford made this morning:

The year that the Ford F-Series started making its consecutive run as the best-selling truck in the U.S., Ms. Carey was seven.

The F-Series has taken the lead for 47 years in a row.* They’re looking at more than 700,000 of them driven off of dealer lots in 2023.

2024 Ford F-150 Platinum. So nice that you probably wouldn’t want to use it as. . .a truck (Image: Ford)

And underscoring the curious popularity of trucks in suburban driveways as well as on work sites (curious because I rarely see my pickup truck-owning neighbors doing anything with the boxes on the back of those vehicles that they couldn’t manage with a trunk), the F-Series has been the best-selling vehicle in the U.S. for 42 years running.*

There is, of course, the question of whether “the most” means “the best.”

After all, McDonald’s has sold more hamburgers than any other company in the world and there is probably no one who doesn’t know whether they can get a better burger.

But one thing it certainly means is that the F-Series provides an unparalleled level of value for more people than any other pickup.

While there may be specific attributes of trucks from other OEMs that are more appealing or necessary for some purchasers, which means those trucks are more valuable for those people, on an overall basis Ford is consistently delivering.

Credit where credit is due. (And you’ll probably need good credit to get a full-size pickup: according to Kelley Blue Book, the average transaction price (ATP) for one in November 2023 was $66,590. You could get an entry-level luxury car for an ATP of $57,889.)

(On a related-unrelated subject, the tremendous number of trucks sold by Ford—closely followed by GM and Ram—in the context of vocational or functional (i.e., towing, hauling) uses of the vehicles might indicate that people are less environmentally keen than might be expected. After all, light-duty pickups aren’t exactly fuel-economy leaders, so were people concerned about carbon, they’d be buying more efficient vehicles for their daily drives. Yes, there are an electric F-150 and Chevy Silverado and one coming from Ram, but from the point of view of resource utilization, as in the massive batteries that have to be constructed, if those trucks aren’t being used as, well, trucks, then that isn’t exactly the most-environmental choice.)

*As the announcement was made a couple days before the actual end of the year, it is a bit of estimation on behalf of Ford. A small bit.

Belt, Road and Electric Vehicles

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By Gary S. Vasilash

The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative was launched in 2013 by Xi Jinping. BRI is a means by which China, though investments and development projects around the world, aims to have increased global influence. According to the Council on Foreign Relations (certainly not something you’d imagine would be cited on a site like this):

“China’s overall ambition for the BRI is staggering. To date, 147 countries—accounting for two-thirds of the world’s population and 40 percent of global GDP—have signed on to projects or indicated an interest in doing so.”

What’s more, CFR points out:

“Beijing could seek geopolitical leverage over BRI countries. A 2021 study analyzed over one hundred debt financing contracts China signed with foreign governments and found that the contracts often contain clauses that restrict restructuring with the group of twenty-two major creditor nations known as the ‘Paris Club.’ China also frequently retains the right to demand repayment at any time, giving Beijing the ability to use funding as a tool to enforce Chinese hot button issues such as Taiwan or the treatment of Uyghurs.”

All of which is to say that the Belt and Road Initiative is somewhat controversial in places other than Beijing.

CFR quotes French president Emmanuel Macron saying during a 2018 trip to China that BRI could result in the countries that have signed up for the loans and/or development programs becoming “vassal states.”

Which makes it odd to see this headline on a recent news release:

Deepening “Belt and Road” Initiatives: Remarkable Global Expansion for DENZA in 2023

DENZA is a car brand that was established in 2010 by Chinese company BYD and Mercedes-Benz. While it started out as a 50:50 joint venture, last year Mercedes sold all but 10% of its share to BYD.

(Image: DENZA/BusinessWire)

The original announcement about the company noted it would combine BYD’s capabilities in vehicle electrification (BYD is a world leader in that space) and Mercedes’ capabilities in providing luxury and quality. A sensible approach for a startup: the best of both worlds.

While DENZA has been somewhat quiet over the past several years, the company describes 2023 as its “inaugural year on the international stage.”

And then there’s this from the news release:

“With a steady and orderly international expansion, DENZA has not only won the hearts of global media and customers but has also laid a solid foundation for becoming a leading international high-end brand, poised to be the ‘business card’ of Chinese new energy luxury cars, redefining China’s automotive industry and introducing DENZA to a global audience.”

Which, going back to the Belt and Road Initiative, really sounds rather, um, ominous, given the methodical approach that is being taken, especially in contrast to the less-consistent execution by some Western OEMs (i.e., from being all-in on EVs to being sort-of-in to. . .). DENZA has a plan and they’re working it.

And seeing more business cards being passed out by several other Chinese EV companies goes to explain, in part, why the European Union launched an investigation this past Fall into whether Chinese EV OEMs, which are gaining considerable traction in the European market, are benefitting from what could be considered “unfair” government subsidies.

This could cause a considerable concern for European OEMs given the importance of the Chinese domestic market to them and the possibility that the Chinese government could retalitate to things like the imposition of tariffs on Chinese EVs coming into the EU by making it more difficult for EU-based OEMs in the China market.

For example, through Q3 2023 Mercedes-Benz Cars sold the following number of vehicles:

  • Germany:     172,900
  • U.S.:             216,700
  • China:          570,600

Presumably the folks in Stuttgart aren’t going to want to agitate any issues with their biggest market by volume, and they aren’t the only ones.

Somehow the auto industry is becoming as much political as it is technical.

Be Careful Around Ram, Tesla and Subaru Drivers

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By Gary S. Vasilash

Sometime there are survey results that seem reasonable and some that make you wonder, like a sampling of findings of “driving incidents” (including accidents, DUIs, speeding, and citations) that were codified using QuoteWizard by LendingTree insurance quote data.

For example, it determined that Ram drivers had 32.90 driving incidents per 1,000 drivers, which makes them “the worst drivers.” And Ram drivers in Massachusetts are particularly bad: 64.44 incidents per 1,000 drivers. Ram drivers have the dubious distinction of being the worst drivers in 23 states, followed by Tesla drivers, who took the lead in 11 states.

Tesla drivers overall, incidentally, were second to Ram. They had 31.13 incidents per 1,000, although they took the lead in the specific accidents category, with 23.54 accidents per 1,000 drivers, besting (?) Ram, which was at 22.76 accidents per 1,000 drivers.

But here’s something curious: The third overall worst drivers were piloting Subarus. They had 30.09 driving incidents per 1,000.

Only Ram, Tesla and Subaru were above 30.00 in the overall incidents category.

In addition, Subaru was also third in accidents per 1,000 drivers, with 20.90.

Again, those three brands are the only ones of the 30 surveyed that were above 20.00.

Subaru? Ram and Tesla are not necessarily unexpected, but Subaru drivers might seem benign—unless they live in California where Suburb drivers racked up 57.66 incidents per 1,000

What do drivers drive that had the least number of driving incidents? Mercury. It was at 15.82 incidents per 1,000 drivers. Given that Mercurys stopped being built in 2011, thereby making those that exist somewhat vintage, might mean that the drivers are exceedingly. . .careful.

There’s Something About Mazda Design

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By Gary S. Vasilash

Several years ago I met Derek Jenkins, who was heading up Design at Mazda North America.

Then Derek introduced me to one of his colleagues on the team, Julien Montousse.

Both of those guys were doing extraordinary work. Although Mazda sales numbers are low when you put them into context of most other marques, arguably if the vehicles lacked the superb execution of design—inside and out—that they exhibit (and have had for the past several years), then those numbers would likely be microscopic and business-wise it would be catastrophic.

Jenkins moved on to Lucid, where he is leading the design efforts. The Lucid Air is both extraordinary and exquisite from the styling perspective. Simply an amazing vehicle and would be even if it didn’t have its propulsion system.

Montousse moved on, as well, but in his case to Archer Aviation, the company that is creating electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, which Archer plans to have its aircraft in commercial service by 2025.

The Archer Midnight. No, not a car. (Image: Archer Aviation)

Montousse and colleagues just won a MUSE Design Award for the Archer Midnight eVTOL.

Montousse: “After spending most of my life designing cars, I saw from a distance that technology breakthroughs were happening in aerospace and that they would unlock new aircraft architectures. When developing a product in a completely new space like eVTOL aircraft, it’s important to instill confidence and earn the trust of consumers.”

Then, sounding much like a car guy, he went on: “When setting out to design Midnight, we focused on creating a powerful aircraft design that forged an emotional connection between passenger and aircraft. Midnight combines high function with high emotion delivering a travel experience unlike any other.”

Swap out some of those nouns with automotive terms.

Seems like there must be something in the water at Mazda for two extraordinary talents to have come from there.

Don’t Be Fuelish

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When I think “fuel economy” I think of, well, fuel. Liquid fuel. Gasoline. Things measured in miles per gallon, not miles per kilowatt hour.

So when I looked that the just-released “Model Year 2024 Fuel Economy Guide” from the U.S. Dept. of Energy I was more interested in seeing what the fuel economy ratings are for various vehicles, ignoring the full electric vehicles*, but giving attention to the plug-in and standard hybrids because in some cases, like minivans, there really is no option when consulting the “Fuel Economy Leaders”:

Minivans

  • Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid (PHEV): 48 mpg combined
  • Toyota Sienna 2WD (hybrid): 36 mpg combined
Pacifica PHEV gets a combined 48 mpg rating. Impressive. (Image: Chrysler)

Other top performers:

Subcompact cars

  • Audi A3 (hybrid): 32 mpg combined
  • MINI Cooper Hardtop (2 and 4 door): 32 mpg combined

Compact car

  • Toyota Corolla Hybrid: 50 mpg combined

Midsize car

  • Toyota Prius (hybrid): 57 mpg combined

Large car

  • Honda Accord Hybrid: 48 mpg combined

Small pickup truck

  • Ford Maverick HEV FWD (hybrid): 37 mpg

Standard pickup truck

  • Chevrolet Silverado 2WD (diesel): 26 mpg combined

Small SUV

  • Kia Nio FE (hybrid): 53 mpg combined

Standard SUV

  • Toyota Grand Highlander Hybrid: 36 mpg combined

Something for everyone—especially those who don’t like to pay a lot at the pump.

*The whole MPGe ranking strikes me as being almost meaningless. While one could say the same for the mpg rating, I think that there is a notion that if a car gets 25 mpg and the average size of a fuel tank is at least 10 gallons (actually it is more on the order of 12.5, but that’s trickier math-wise), then 25 mpg means 250 miles. But unless someone knows the capacity of the battery and is able to do the math, the MPGe is a cipher.

Hybrids Still Matter

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By Gary S. Vasilash

Japanese car shoppers are going to buy more hybrids in 2024—more than half of all sales will be the electrified powertrains—than any other type of propulsion system, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Tatsuo Yoshida, Bloomberg Intelligence senior auto analyst, said:

“In Japan, hybrids are popular because they’re affordable and reliable, since they don’t rely on the existence of strong charging infrastructure.”

Arguably, those same characteristics—affordability, reliability, and no dependence on the availability of electric chargers (at home or out in the world)—are important to consumers everywhere.

2024 Toyota Prius: Looks good. Travels far. (Image: Toyota)

Although Honda had a hybrid in the U.S. market, the Insight, before Toyota brought the Prius, it was literally just a matter of months—Insight December 1999; Prius June 2000—and Toyota has really become more associated with hybrid technology thanks to its persistence in bringing out hybrids, both as powertrain options to vehicles (e.g., the hybrid RAV4) and as hybrid-only offerings (e.g., the Toyota Venza).

In Japan Toyota has had the Prius available since 1997, so the vehicle, and hybrid tech, are certainly familiar to consumers there.

While the Prius design over the years transitioned from something frumpy to something that looked like the designers were spending too much time watching anime, the 2024 Prius, the fifth generation of the model, is absolutely stunning in looks and certainly not lacking in its efficient performance: the top-of-the-line XLE and Limited models with AWD offer fuel economy of 49 mpg city, 50 mpg highway, and 49 mpg combined. For those who have more frugality, there’s the LE FWD version which is rated at 57/56/57 mpg, which means that given its 11.3-gallon fuel tank (and it takes regular gasoline) it can travel some 640 miles on a tank. That is the definition of “convenience.”

(The 2024 Prius was named the MotorTrend Car of the Year and it is a finalist for the North American Car of the Year, which will be announced January 4.)

Hybrids are garnering more attention in the U.S. market. Not as much as in Japan, but more.

The Ford Maverick Hybrid continues to be a massive hit.

And when Ram brings out its Ramcharger Ram 1500 variant next year, although it will probably emphasize that it is an “electric vehicle,” it is really a hybrid (a series hybrid: there is a battery that powers the electric motor; when the battery gets close to depletion, the gasoline engine operates as a generator to recharge the battery, to keep the propulsion going).

And at an Automotive Press Association Q&A late last month, GM CEO Mary Barra acknowledged that the company has hybrid tech in its portfolio, even though it has no hybrids on offer in the U.S. market.

Arguably, if more Americans knew about the ease of using a hybrid and the efficiency the vehicles provide, they, too, would buy more of them.

Perhaps this will happen when the 2025 Toyota Camry is launched.

The Camry, the perennial best-selling car in the U.S., will be available only with a hybrid powertrain. Clearly, Toyota is that confident in the tech. (Of course, having been putting hybrids under hoods for more than a quarter of a century, it ought to be.)

Affordability, reliability, and no dependence on the availability of electric chargers.

This may cause consumers to pay more attention to hybrids in the U.S., too.

You Can Reserve an Acura MDX EV Right Now

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By Gary S. Vasilash

Although it is widely known that Acura is late to the proverbial electric vehicle party, it announced today that reservations are now open for its forthcoming ZDX crossover, which is available as an A-Spec (single-motor, RWD; dual-motor AWD) or as a Type S (dual-motor, AWD, ~500 hp) vehicle.

The 2024 Acura ZDX: coming to a dealership near you (well, assuming you know where an Acura dealership is) sometime next Spring. They say. (Image: Acura)

So it is getting closer, as close as Spring 2024 for those who put down a $1,000 reservation fee. . .but given that the ZDX is based on the GM Ultium platform, there could be some minor or major delivery delays, given that the Ultium track record to date is not exactly confidence-inspiring.

The A-Spec models are said to be “Starting in the range of $60,000” and the Type S offering “Starting in the range of $70,000,” so the vehicles both of which are offered with a 102 kWh battery, don’t have particularly surprising price points.

That is, the Acura MDX has a starting MSRP of $49,850 and makes its way to $73,500.

Acura has always been premium, so for the money it tends to be a good value.

Often better than good.

So maybe it will be late, but it has the right body style for selling EVs, and a handsome body style out of its LA studio (which is undoubtedly surrounded by EVs from various and sundry OEMs, established, burgeoning, trying, and Tesla).

Let’s just hope the ZDX isn’t really late.

It’s not that the party will be over. It will be that people will have all selected their party hats vehicles and so the number Acura will be able to move will be less than it might be thought and there won’t be a whole lot of popping the cork.

Why Did the Solar Truck Climb the Volcano?

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By Gary S. Vasilash

Gebrüder Weiss Holding AG is an Austria-based logistics company. That means it moves things for other companies.

Evidently it is rather good at it, given that the company has been in existence since 1474.

The company announced that a vehicle it is the main sponsor of has set the world altitude record for e-vehicles—a solar-powered transport truck.

Solar truck climbs the volcano in the Andes to prove that it can be done. (Image: Gebrüder Weiss / Anna Pocinska)

The vehicle was developed by Peak Evolution, based on a modified Aebi VT450 transporter, with the combustion engine being replaced by two 120-kW motors.

It drove up the western ridge of Ojos del Salado, the highest active volcano on Earth. It is in the Andes, on the border of Argentina and Chile.

The truck went up to 6,500 meters (a.k.a., 21,325 feet).

Why was Gebrüder Weiss involved? Said Frank Haas, Head of Corporate Brand Strategy & Communications, “This success underlines our ongoing support for sustainable mobility projects and innovative technologies.”

The company is also working with the Austrian Space Forum for a planned mission to Mars.

While such undertakings may seem bizarre, evidently if the company has been in business as long as it has and is able to fund such unusual projects, clearly it knows something that plenty of other companies don’t.

Fuel Cells Coming to Mining Equipment

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By Gary S. Vasilash

The nominal payload for a Komatsu 930E-5SE—an electric truck that is used in applications like mining—is 640,000 pounds.

Heavy-duty piece of mining gear going to GM fuel cell tech. (Image: Komatsu)

So when Charlie Freese, executive director of GM’s HYDROTEC business says that they believe that fuel cells “can play an integral role in a zero-emissions future, helping to electrify heavier-duty applications,” he’s talking about things like the 930E.

To that end, GM and Komatsu have entered into an agreement through which the companies will co-develop a hydrogen fuel cell power module—on the order of 2 megawatts—to power the 930E.

Dan Funcannon, Komatsu vp of North America Engineering and Development, says Komatsu has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2050.

Typically mining trucks and associated equipment aren’t powered by batteries, aren’t powered by fuel cells, but are powered by diesel fuel.

And diesel isn’t on the pathway to carbon neutrality.

GM HYDROTEC will develop the fuel cell modules, which they refer to as “power cells.” Komatsu will work on the mining truck.

The plan is to have the first prototype tested at the Komatsu Arizona Proving Ground with a few years.

While it may seem like a long time, as Komatsu has a truck and GM has a factory producing fuel cells, let’s face it: when you are on a mining site in the middle of nowhere, you want to make sure that the massive piece of equipment, approximately the size of a small building, works, day in, day out.

It’s not like you can call AAA for a tow.