Still small(ish) numbers. . .

By Gary S. Vasilash

The European Union is ahead of the U.S. in the acceptance of electric vehicles. That is, according to Cox Automotive, in 2023 the EV share of the U.S. vehicle market was 7.6%.

The European Union has just reported that in 2023 the number of EVs registered represents 14.6%.

What’s interesting about the 2023 number in the U.S. is that Cox Automotive reckonings show that Tesla sales represented 55% of all EV sales in the U.S.

There are now 30 brands offering EVs in the U.S., including Tesla, yet the company that seems to be going out of favor through the first half of 2024 has 49.7% of the market.

Taking out its estimated (it doesn’t provide clarity about sales in particular countries, including the U.S.) 304,451 vehicles from the 2024 first half total of 599,372, that means there were a total of 294,921 EVs sold in the U.S. in the first half of 2024.

To put that into perspective, in the first half of 2024 there were 248,295 Toyota RAV4s sold in the U.S.

So this means that 29 vehicle brands sold 46,626 more vehicles than a single model.

Questions

It is easy to get excited about percentage increases until they are contextualized.

Will the number of EVs on offer continue to grow? Yes.

Will the number of EVs sold increase as they become available in different segments? Yes.

Will growth in EV sales continue should there be a change in Washington that eliminates the incentives to buy an EV?

There’s the question that doesn’t have an answer.

But there’s something that provides perhaps of a hint in Germany.

Cautionary tale?

Meanwhile, back in Europe, EV growth continues, primarily because of government support and/or regulations.

According to T&E, “Europe’s leading advocates for clean transport and energy,” during the first half of 2024 EV sales were up in the EU by 9.4%–but that’s by leaving out the largest car market, Germany.

With Germany, the EV sales grew in the EU by 1.3%.

The organization’s Lucien Mathieu, cars director, said, “Germany is the sick man of Europe when it comes to electric cars. Meanwhile, markets which have strong, predictable incentives for EV adoption are reaping the rewards.”

At the end of 2023 Germany stopped providing a subsidy for the purchase of an electric vehicle. T&E calculates that that caused a 16.4% decrease in EV sales in Germany in the first half of 2024.

According to T&E:

“In the first half of 2024, EV sales grew in markets with supportive regulatory environments:

• In France, which has a social leasing scheme to provide cheap electric cars to low-income households, BEV sales increased by 14.9% in H1 2024;
• In Italy, BEV sales increased by 7.0% in the first half of the year, with a sales peak in June 2024 when new EV incentives were launched;
• In Belgium, the company car segment drove the BEV market with a 47.8% increase in the first half of the year;
• In the UK, the ZEV mandate has driven the BEV market, with sales increasing by 9.2% in H1 2024.”

Which raises a question: are “markets which have strong, predictable incentives” real markets or artificial ones?

Germany has some appealing EVs from small VWs to generally lauded BMWs to Mercedes lux.

And it is not like no one is buying EVs in Germany: T&E has EV sales in the first half representing 12.5% of the market.

Still, given the amount of investment and attention paid to EVs, the numbers seem somewhat small.

There. And here.