If you live in SoCal or NoCal, you’ve got a chance to lease a piece of what could be the automotive future. Could be.
By Gary S. Vasilash
Honda has announced its three lease options for Californians—who can access one of the 12 approved dealerships—interested in the 2025 CR-V e:FCEV, a fuel-cell electric version of its popular crossover.
Looks like a Honda CR-V because it is one. What makes this one—which is manufactured at the Honda Performance Manufacturing Center in Ohio—uses a second-generation fuel cell module produced by a Honda-GM joint venture in Michigan. Some people in California can lease the CR-V e:FCEV. (Image; Honda)
Honda thinks that the most popular option will be 3 years/36,000 miles. This will require $2,959 at signing, then monthly payments of $459.
The least expensive is a 6-year/72,000-mile program that requires $2,889 at signing and $389 per month.
The most expensive is 2 years/60,000 miles, which requires $2,989 at signing and $489 per month.
However, given that mileage allowance, perhaps it pencils well for those who drive a lot: 30,000 miles per year vs. 12,000 miles for the other two lease deals.
Honda is adding an incentive for the lease packages in the form of hydrogen fuel credits: $15,000 for the 3-year lease, $30,000 for the 6-year lease and $25,000 for the 2-year lease.
While that appears to be exceedingly serious money, it is worth knowing that the average cost of a kilogram of hydrogen, which is comparable from an energy standpoint to a gallon of gas, is about $33 in California.
So that means for $15,000 one will get ~455 kg (again, think “gallons”) at the pump.
With gas at about $5.40 per gallon in California, were one to have that deal it would translate into 2,778 gallons.
The CR-V e:FCEV, which has a battery that provides up to 29 miles of range (this is charged via a plug), has a total range of 270 miles. It has a 4.3-kg fuel tank.
Some good news is that to fill one of the vehicles it is pretty much just like fueling a gasoline CR-V both in terms of procedure and time, something that can’t be said for battery-powered electric vehicles.
Still, with that cost of hydrogen, one really has to be dedicated to an environmental vehicle regardless of the fuel credits.
McLaren Automotive produces amazing rolling sculptures that (1) go exceedingly fast and (2) cost a non-trivial amount of money.
Supercars.
Not your run-of-the-road hybrid: the McLaren Artura (price tag: ~$237,500). (Image; McLaren)
Like all OEMs, McLaren is pursuing electrification.
Its CEO, Michael Leiters, thinks that the UK, where McLaren is based, needs to do more to facilitate the creation of a supply chain that would be more EV-intensive:
“Today, our hybrid McLaren Artura powertrain has 64% UK content. If this car was a pure EV, the UK content of the powertrain would reduce to 13% because we cannot currently source the relevant componentry in the UK,” Leiters says.
He argues that because the UK has specialization in vehicles that are at the top end—“Today it remains home to some of the world’s most admired performance car brands, as well as the majority of Formula 1 racing teams”—it would be beneficial were the UK government—which, incidentally, will get a new leader on July 4—to develop a plan for electrification:
“A clear industrial strategy, led by investment in the domestic supply-chain, will deliver growth, support jobs, help decarbonise the economy and secure a vibrant future for the UK performance car industry.”
Metaphorically waving the Union Jack:
“We must harness the skills, knowledge and ingenuity of the UK motorsport and performance car industry to create a global, high-performance centre of excellence.”
Leiters points out:
“UK-based luxury and sports car brands command tremendous pricing power thanks to their rich histories, intrinsic brand value and class-leading performance attributes.
“As a result, the productivity gross value added of McLaren employees is 51% higher than that of the UK automotive manufacturing sector as a whole.”
But here’s the thing:
McLaren sold just over 2,000 vehicles in 2023.
Highly productive McLaren workers notwithstanding, it probably isn’t making the Chancellor of the Exchequer overly exercised.
Leiters also pointed out:
“The UK was once the world’s largest vehicle exporter.”
While that’s not going to happen again, the question that should be asked by the next UK government is whether it should be investing to benefit the supercar manufacturers in the country or create a supply chain so that companies like Stellantis, which threatened earlier this week that it may stop producing vehicles in the UK (among its brands are Vauxhall, which was founded in London in 1857) due to EV rules, would consider it better to build in Britain than not.
It is not hard to imagine that at some point, as the issue of Dieselgate was still burbling like the surface of the La Brea Tar Pits, there was a meeting at Volkswagen HQ in Wolfsburg at which point someone smacked the surface of a conference room table and said, “Verdammt! We’re going to develop vehicles that are going to reestablish some green credentials for the company!”
So it set to work on its ID. line of vehicles. It introduced, in Germany, the ID.3, a small hatchback, in 2020. Because the company figured that Americans aren’t all that keen on small cars, its first in the new line of electric vehicles (there had been the e-Golf, but that was more of a novelty than a commercial product) for the U.S. was the ID.4, in 2021, a compact crossover.*
The ID.4 didn’t get much of a reception given that it was available with a maximum range of 260 miles, with most models south of that.
2024 VW ID.4. A highly credible EV crossover. (Image: VW)
A Pivot
The company dedicated to that proposition of going green has improved the ID.4 for 2024 in many ways, including improving the range to a maximum 291 miles (for the ID.4 Pro, driven here, and the ID.4 Pro S), which is close enough to that 300-mile mark that seems to be what people are looking for.
(And although the starting MSRP for the ID.4 Standard is $39,735 and it, like the others in the ’24 lineup, is eligible for the $7,500 federal tax credit, a 206-mile range probably is not a good thing from a marketing standpoint—not that that is the least range in an EV out there (the MINI Cooper SE is rated at 114 miles), but if someone goes into the dealership and hears that 206-mile number, they may be a bit turned off, even though for a few grand more they can get a model with an 82-kWh battery rather than the entry 62-kWh and get a more reasonable range.)
Performance
What’s more, the ID.4 Pro is peppy: the rear-drive model (VW points out that just like the original Beetle, the motor is in the back) produces 282 hp.
All of which is to say the range and performance have both been improved, so those who were lukewarm for the earlier entry may want to give the ’24 ID.4 consideration.
(And while this doesn’t strike me as a vehicle that anyone is going to be doing performance driving in—more likely something to load up with soccer gear or Costco cargo, and it can do a good job at that: cargo volume is 30.3 cubic feet behind the second row and 64.2 cubic feet with the seats folded—it does feature a vehicle dynamics control system that debuted on the Mk 8 Golf GTI.)
Driving
To drive the ID.4 one climbs into the driver’s seat while carrying the fob, then uses a stalk (similar to the automatic transmission gear selector of yore) to select forward or reverse by turning it. No key rotation or button push.
There is an option labeled “B.” This is for “Brake.” But what it does is increase the amount of regenerative braking automatically applied so that there is more otherwise-wasted energy put back into the battery. It doesn’t provide what’s known as “one-pedal driving,” meaning that when lifting on the accelerator the vehicle doesn’t come to a full stop. Apparently VW wanted a bit of normalcy for those who are used to driving vehicles with what is still by far the dominant form of propulsion.
Useful
Another thing addressed in the new model is the interface.
In the Pro (and other models) there is a 12.9-inch touchscreen interface configured for ready access to apps without layers of confusion. Along the top of the screen are icons for things like music, navigation, and battery; at the bottom there are HVAC settings. This means that regardless of what’s going on in the center of the screen, items that are regularly used are a finger touch away. Just below the display are illuminated touch sliders that can be used to adjust temperature although there is the ability to set the temp using the infotainment screen.
American-Made
An interesting thing about the ID.4 is that Volkswagen manufactures it in its plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee. It ranks #3 in the Cars.com 2024 American-Made Index. This not only means that it is the only non-Tesla in the Top 10, but Teslas aside, you have to scroll down the list to #56 to get to another Cars.com American-Made electric vehicle: the Ford F-150 Lightning. Yes, VW at #3, Ford at #56. Imagine.
All in all, the 2024 VW ID.4 is something that ought to be on the list of those who are considering a move to an EV.
(Why didn’t I simply say “on the list of those who are considering a new crossover”? Simple. In terms of size and capacity, the ID.4 is fairly close to the VW Tiguan, which has a starting MSRP of $28,880. And the VW Atlas, the largest SUV on offer, has a starting MSRP of $37,995. Yes, the $7,500 tax credit for the ID.4 makes it effectively less expensive than the Atlas, but the Atlas is still more substantive. You have to want to move to an EV.)
*VW has made a decided shift from cars to crossovers in the U.S. market, which has been improving its fortunes here. However, I’d argue that the company should have brought the ID.3 to the U.S. market. “But people don’t buy small cars,” you say. That is partially true, but you can still buy a Civic or an Elantra and others. What’s more, consider this: when VW brought the Beetle to the U.S. in 1949 it sold. . .two. But through the 1950s, when Americans otherwise weren’t buying small cars, to say nothing of small cars that looked like the Beetle, the vehicle managed to defy expectations. In a big way. And while on the subject of small cars, when GM was boasting about the number of EVs sold in 2023, the only vehicle that really made a difference to those numbers was the Bolt EV/EUV, which had sales of 62,045. As for the rest there were Silverado EV, 461; Hummer EV 3,244; Blazer EV, 482; Lyriq, 9,154. Yes, small cars can matter and I’d submit that VW could have done that with the ID.3.
Seems like the EV slowdown is happening elsewhere, too
By Gary S. Vasilash
The South Korean-based brands—Hyundai, Kia and Genesis—are producing some of the most-appealing electric vehicles available in the U.S. market.
Award-winning Kia EV9 (Image:Kia)
Consider, for example: for the 2024 North American Car, Truck and Utility Vehicle of the Year Awards, the Hyundai Ioniq 6 was one of the three finalists in the Car category. The Genesis Electrified GV70, Hyundai Kona/Kona EV, and Kia EV9 were the three finalists; the EV9 received the award.
And, of course, these products (and others, too) are available to Korean consumers.
GlobalData has run numbers for how well electric vehicles are doing in the home market of those companies, and finds that through April 2024, zero-emissions vehicle sales in Korea, 97% of which are EVs and the balance fuel-cell vehicles, are down 17% compared with April 2023.
Meanwhile, hybrids (including plug-ins) are up by some 45%.
Why are EVs not doing so well? GlobalData suggests:
Early adopters have gotten them. The majority isn’t buying yet.
And on the subject of buying, there is the comparative higher costs of EVs.
Charging is a concern.
Residual value decreases make an EV purchase less appealing.
GlobalData points out that while there had been dismissiveness expressed by some pundits regarding hybrids as being a bridging technology between internal combustion engine vehicles and EVs, the numbers are showing that that is indeed the case.
The good news for Hyundai, Kia and Genesis is that they offer compelling hybrid products as part of their global portfolios, too.
Market churn and vehicle costs are making a big difference on program launches
By Gary S. Vasilash
Pity the product planner.
Pity the consumers of vehicles near the end of the decade.
The first is one of the things that John Murphy, senior U.S. Auto Analyst for Bank of America Securities, in effect, said at an Automotive Press Association meeting held yesterday in a BoA facility in Farmington Hills, Michigan.
Or, in Murphy’s words, “The unprecedented EV head-fake over the last three years has wreaked havoc on product planning. The prior acceleration in EV launches is doing a U-turn in favor of extending ICE programs and new hybrids. However, while there is a lot of talk about hybrids, there isn’t much action. The next four+ years will be some of the most uncertain and volatile in product strategy ever.”
So while it wasn’t all that long ago that people talked about how EVs had it the “tipping point” and henceforth they would be the powertrain of choice, comparative consumer indifference has led to a reconsideration of what had thought to be fait accompli.
Pity the product planner who has to explain why what was to be a winner is just doing OK—at best.
As part of the BoA Car Wars proprietary analysis, which Murphy has been working on, it is determined that looking ahead—from model years 2025 to 2028—the rate of alternative powertrain launches—which includes hybrids—is being trimmed back a bit, with what had thought to be 79 launches in MY 2025-26 being reduced by one and launches in MY 2027-28 being down from 123 to 112.
Remember: there only seemed to be upside in that space not all that long ago.
Enjoy your opulent interior while it is still there
As for the consumers: Murphy explained that Tesla has figured out how to build cost-effective EVs in a way that the traditional OEMs haven’t. Unless the traditional can design and engineer vehicles that are just as cost effective, then while they will eat into Telsa’s market share, they won’t impact Tesla’s profitability.
Murphy said the place where the traditionals really need to focus their cost-cutting efforts are on things like the structure of the vehicle and the creature comforts (or lack thereof).
Consider: you’re unlikely to hear someone tout the comfortable cabin experience in a Tesla, but there have been plenty of thumbs-up for the interior of the Cadillac Lyriq.
But if Cadillac really wants to compete with Tesla, then that interior needs some significant change—which may not be beneficial so far as the customer is concerned.
What does Murphy recommend the traditional domestic OEMs do while they try to figure out how to get those costs out of EVs?
Go to where the money is.
Concentrate on pickup trucks with internal combustion engines.
In order to get change, thing evidently also have to stay the same.
Yes, Murphy said, the trend is still going EV. But not quite as rapidly as seemed to be the case.
Although the U.S. government is rolling out various and sundry rules, regulations and funding schemes meant to increase the number of electric vehicles on the roads, elsewhere governments are drawing lines in the proverbial sand and saying, “After this date certain, no more ICE.”
In the UK there had initially been a plan to ban the sale of new vehicles with combustion engines (gas or diesel) by 2040, but even that was considered extreme by people in the auto industry.
Still, in 2020 the UK government set the time when it would no longer be permissible to sell new combustion vehicles: 2030.
But last year, British prime minister Rishi Sunak, member of the Conservative Party, pushed that deadline back by five years, to 2035. That happens to be when the European Union has announced it will enact a ban. Seems like there was something the UK and the EU could agree on.
(It is worth noting that the Germans are taking a carve out: it will be permissible to sell combustion engine powered vehicles there beyond 2035—if those vehicles use carbon-neutral fuels. Odds are there aren’t going to be a whole lot of e-fuels available there or anywhere else at that time, unless the big oil companies go at it right away, and given that as about 85% of crude oil by weight is carbon, carbon neutrality will be a tough assignment.)
Back to the UK.
There will be an election for a new prime minister in the UK on July 4.
Sunak will be facing Keir Starmer of the Labour Party.
The party has written a “manifesto” outlining its approach to various social and economic issues facing the UK.
And in it there’s this:
“Labour will support the transition to electric vehicles by accelerating the roll out of charge points, giving certainty to manufacturers by restoring the phase-out date of 2030 for new cars with internal combustion engines, and supporting buyers of second-hand electric cars by standardising the information supplied on the condition of batteries.”
That’s right: going back to 2030.
Somehow this probably isn’t “giving certainty to manufacturers.”
When you think of the quintessential full-size pickup truck, the sort of thing that you imagine farmers loading with bales or hay or contractors carrying loads of gravel, it is probably the Ford F-Series.
With good reason, given Ford sells those trucks the way McDonald’s sells hamburgers. The numbers are staggering.
But odds are, those images of the F-Series are probably not entirely accurate.
BMW 5 Series. Or you could consider a pickup truck. (Image: BMW)
Listen to Erin Keating, executive analyst for Cox Automotive, talking about vehicle transaction prices in May.
First she notes: “The popularity of fully loaded, full-size pickup trucks that are more luxurious than many luxury vehicles is unique to the U.S. market.”
Which can be understood that (1) there aren’t a lot of full-size pickup trucks sold in other markets around the world* and (2) those trucks are probably used as utility vehicles (e.g., the opening examples).
Keating does on: “The Ford F-Series outsold BMW 2-to-1 in May, and BMW’s ATP [average transaction price] was only marginally higher than the F-Series.”
Whereas the average transaction price for a BMW in May was $72,946, the ATP for an F-Series was $67,837.
Now that’s about a five-grand difference, which isn’t exactly trivial.
But somehow a Bimmer seems as though it is in another category all together compared with something that you probably once saw with a decal of Calvin relieving himself on a Chevy bowtie on the back window of the truck.
Of course, not a $68,000 truck, but nonetheless. . . .
//
*That full-size pickups are pretty much indigenous to the U.S. market is something that makes the development of EV versions of the trucks somewhat problematic in the long run. That is, on a global basis something like the Ford Mustang Mach-E has more applicability than an F-150 Lightning. While it seems to have been thought by some OEM execs that because customers in the U.S. buy lots and lots of trucks, then if a somewhat sizable percentage of them buy electric versions then everything will be great. For reasons including cost and/or performance, that is not proving to be the case. This means that scale isn’t being achieved, and if there is something that is necessary for an OEM, it’s that. So by spending lots of engineering and manufacturing resources on making a type of vehicle that has a limited domestic market and a nearly non-existent global market, achieving scale is anywhere is not particularly likely.
Although the number of vehicles sold in a given month in the UK isn’t particularly large, from a percentage standpoint there are undoubtedly some people at US OEMs who wish they’d have the kind of EV registration numbers that exist in the UK:
According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), in May EVs have 17.6% of the market.
While the whole market was up 1.7% in May, SMMT figures show that EV sales were up 6.2%. Clearly, EVs in the UK are doing rather well.
Do British consumers know something that American consumers don’t?
Well, maybe not.
Turns out that consumer retail EV sales were actually down 2%.
The uptick in the EV market came from fleets.
In the UK there is something called the “Vehicle Emissions Trading Scheme” that mandates zero-emissions vehicles represent 22% of a manufacturers’ annual sales.
Apparently there are incentives available to businesses for getting EVs that are not open to consumers. The SMMT believes that it is necessary for “the next government to provide consumers with meaningful purchase incentives.”
Conservative leader Rishi Sunak, current UK prime minister, will square off against Labour leader Keir Starmer on July 4.
Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive:
“As Britain prepares for next month’s general election, the new car market continues to hold steady as large fleets sustain growth, offsetting weakened private retail demand. Consumers enjoy a plethora of new electric models and some very attractive offers, but manufacturers can’t sustain this scale of support on their own indefinitely. Their success so far should be a signpost for the next government that a faster and fairer transition requires carrots, not just sticks.”
While of the subject of incentives and such, it should be noted that in May plug-in hybrids were up 31.5% are regular hybrids up 9.6%, both handily outperforming EVs.
And while the May ’24 market share for plug-ins is 8% and hybrids 13.2%, each below the EV’s 17.6%, combined they represent 21.2% of the market.
Evidently consumers aren’t against reduced emissions but are in favor (favour?) of the convenience and range provided by hybrids.
One of the things that seemingly more European drivers—particularly those in Germany—do that isn’t as frequently performed by Americana drivers is to swap out their tires from summer tires to winter tires. Winter tires provide more grip than even the all-season tires that are more common in the U.S. And a lot more grip that that provided by summer tires.
Apparently there is a bit of an issue with winter tires and electric vehicles.
BMW/Pirelli jontly developed winter tire with EV applicataions as the focus. (Image: BMW)
The compounds and the tread patterns found on winter tires that provide the grip are such that the rolling resistance is increased.
And when it comes to EVs in particular, that rolling resistance can decrease range.
So BMW Group and Pirelli have developed 20-inch P Zero Winter 2 tires, specifically for the BMW 7 Series, including the electric i7.
The companies say that compared to a conventional winter tire, the i7 can get 50 km (31 miles) of additional range.
According to Dr. Mihiar Ayoubi, senior vice president, Development Driving Pleasure, BMW Group (with a title like that, I’d quote him even if it was not even tangential to the subject), “These tires exemplify our commitment to pushing the boundaries of our cars in even dimension.”
The tires will be available in August, then fitment for the new BMW X3 later this year.
One of the aspects of electric vehicles that is regularly not talked about is that because they tend to be pricier than vehicles with gas engines (according to KBB the average transaction price for an EV is $54,021 compared to $47,218 for vehicles in general) is that insurance rates are higher.
Higher because the vehicle itself is more expensive.
Higher because the cost of repairs is higher.
(When people talk about the need for more EV infrastructure, it is mainly about charging stations. But here’s something to consider: what is the level of availability of repair shops for EVs? I recently went to a repair shop on a Monday to find out when I could get some simple service performed for a non-EV. The scheduler said, “Erm, how about Friday? We’re understaffed.” I suspect that had it been an EV I would have heard, “Well, the EV guy is pretty much booked through. . .” and it would have been beyond Friday.)
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Consumer Price Index, while prices for goods and services across the board is up 3.4% from April ’23 to April ’24, motor vehicle insurance over the same period is up 22.6%.
Experian has surveyed consumers and found that 71% say that inflation has “impacted their road trip plans.”
However, over the past 12 months food away from home is up 4.1% and gasoline 1.2%, so it is hard to understand why so many people see inflation as being a big problem.
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