shinymetalboxes

Cars, culture & contingent considerations

Interesting EV Numbers

Posted on October 27, 2022 by shinymetalboxes

The good news for EV enthusiasts (as in those who enthusiastically support the proliferation of EVs not necessarily because of any environmental considerations but simply because (a) they have one and figure that others should, too, or (b) they simply think it is cool tech, and while they can’t afford it—according to KBB.com, EVs had an average retail price of $65,291 in September—they still think it is cool for those who can):

According to Elizabeth Krear, vice president, electric vehicle practice, J.D. Power: “October breaks a three-consecutive month decline in EV consideration.” More people are thinking about getting an EV.

J.D. Power data have it that 27.4% of people who are going to be in the market for a new vehicle in the next 12 months are “very likely” to consider an EV.

While that is a move in the right direction for EV sales, Krear has some other figures that are less propitious:

“Adoption has been flat for the past six months with the retail monthly share for BEVs hovering at 5.6%. The top two reasons for EV rejection are lack of public charging and price.”

As for that all-important price component, she points out that affordability has decreased by 15 points during the past 12 months and the recent rise in interest rates is having an effect, as well.

But the federal EV support money for EV purchases as well as an increase in the number of models (J.D. Power has 51 in its data set; two years ago it contained 27) are at least helping people consider EVs, even though they still might opt for that ICE model.

EV Is VE: Very Expensive

Posted on October 4, 2022 by shinymetalboxes

The average transaction price for an electric vehicle this past August—that is, the average price that a real person paid to get the vehicle off the lot—was $66,524, according to Kelley Blue Book. A full-size pickup truck (presumably powered by gasoline) was less costly: $63,456. (Here’s something random to consider: That is a $3,068 difference. If gasoline is $5 per gallon, then that would buy 613.6 gallons. If the vehicle gets 18 mpg, then one could drive said pickup 11,044 miles.)

Forthcoming (albeit pre-production) 2024 Chevrolet Blazer EV SS. *(Image: Chevrolet)*

Next fall Chevy is to bring out the Equinox EV with an announced, anticipated, starting price of $30,000. The company will also be bringing out the Blazer EV, that has an “estimated MSRP starting around $44,995.” The photo on the webpage has a photo of a preproduction version of the Blazer EV. The “as shown” price for that midsize SUV: $67,990.

Somehow that $30,000 is likely to be closer to $40,000 for someone going for an average transaction.

Or more.

Some Notable Numbers

Posted on July 22, 2022 by shinymetalboxes

Let’s face it: vehicle sales in the first half of 2022 were not great in terms of volume.

What’s more, they weren’t great for customers who were looking for something affordable—according to Kelley Blue Book, the average transaction price for a new vehicle was a record $48,043.

They were great for OEMs and dealers, because higher prices mean bigger profits.

Be that as it may, it is interesting to look at how the leading OEMs made out in terms of one another when it came to sales.

In first place there is General Motors, which sold 1,087,761 vehicles. Based on that, here is the sales delta between pairs of subsequent companies (i.e., how many more the first named company sold than the company that follows it in sales ranking):

GM to Toyota: 42,064
Toyota to Ford: 135,965
Ford to Stellantis: 95,900
Stellantis to Hyundai: 110,867
Hyundai to Honda: 196,668
Honda to Nissan: 73,683
Nissan to Volkswagen: 173,162

The gap between Toyota and Ford is surprising. And the gap between Ford and GM is even more surprising: 178,029.

Hyundai (as in the Group, meaning Kia, too) is certainly coming on strong. And Honda seems to be fizzling.

Realize that all of these companies are dealing with supply chain snafus and chip shortages, so it is a matter of (1) those who did a better job of managing their way through adversity and (2) a range of products (generally large SUVs and light-duty pickups) that consumers were interesting in acquiring.

What Vehicles Are People Considering and Why?

Posted on May 13, 2022 by shinymetalboxes

By Gary S. Vasilash

Kelley Blue Book puts together an interesting study on what people are interested in by examining what they are searching for automotive-wise both on desktops and mobile.

For Q1 22 in the non-luxury space the number-one brand is Toyota, with 34% brand consideration. In Q4 21 it was Ford on top. They’ve switched places. Ford is at 32%. Chevy is on the rise because in Q4 it was at 25% but has risen by five percentage points.

What is somewhat sad is Fiat, which was at 0% in Q4 and is at 0% in Q1.

And just above it are Mitsubishi and MINI, both at 1%, which is where they were last quarter, too.

Perhaps people just know all they need to about those brands.

Ram Laramie 1500: Imposing *and* comfortable. (*Image: Ram*)

KBB slices, dices and rices data in various ways. Like looking at four categories: SUVs, Cars, Pickups, and Minivans.

The top SUV is the Honda CR-V (besting the Tahoe, Durango, RAV4 and Highlander).

The #1 car is the Honda Accord, edging out the Civic (sibling rivalry). The Camry, Charger and Challenger follow.

In Pickups it is the Silverado 1500, followed by the F-150, F-250/F-350/F-450, the Silverado 2500/3500 HD, and the Tacoma.

In Minivans it is the Sienna followed by the Odyssey, Pacifica, Pacifica Hybrid and Voyager.

Of those categories, 66% looked at SUVs, 37% Cars, 35% Pickups, and 5% Minivans.

Perhaps there is some life in Cars, although the considerations were down 31% in the last quarter and 33% in the last year, so clearly things aren’t moving in the right direction.

Another potentially encouraging sign for Cars is that in the top 10 models considered, there are three Cars on the list (Accord, Civic and Camry), which is the number of SUVs on the list (CR-V, Tahoe, Durango).

What are the top three factors driving consideration?

Durability/reliability is in the top spot, which is not a surprise, nor is the fact that Toyota is the one that takes it.

Second is safety, and while you might imagine that would be Volvo, Subaru is actually in that position.

And third is driving comfort. This is taken by Ram. Who would have thought that a pickup truck would win the comfort honors?

Top Tech According to KBB

Posted on February 8, 2022 by shinymetalboxes

Kelley Blue Book has come out with a list of top vehicular tech for 2022.

One thing that you may immediately notice is that this technology isn’t exactly new in most cases.

But it is a list of things that you might want to be aware of should you be out there looking for a new vehicle.

Of course, finding an affordable new vehicle is all the more difficult nowadays because of the on-going shortage of semiconductors–and it is worth noting that by and large these technologies are predicated on. . .semiconductors:

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)
Automatic Emergency Braking
Connected Mobile Apps/Digital Key (the latter uses a phone as a device to unlock and start the vehicle)
Teen Driver Tech (squeals to Mom and Dad if the kids go too fast, for example)
Safe Exit Assist to Protect Cyclists (blind spot detection of bike rides—helps save them and the driver’s door)
Wireless Smartphone Connectivity and Charging
360-degree Camera
Emergency Services/Stolen Vehicle Tracking Software (when is the last time you heard anyone mention LoJack?)
Blind-Spot View Monitor (not just that little yellow light in the sideview mirror but an actual image of what’s where)
Video Rearview Mirror (switches the reflective mirror to a video display)

Drive carefully even if you don’t have any of this stuff.

Remarkable Rotary Engine and Agreeable NACTOY Jurors

Posted on December 20, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Power in a small package. Jurors before casting their ballots

By Gary S. Vasilash

The Omega 1 is a highly efficient engine, one that can produce 160 hp and 170 lb-ft of torque. Yet it weighs just 35 pounds.

While it is a combustion engine, it doesn’t have pistons. Doesn’t have crankshafts.

Rather, the output from the engine comes from a single rotating power shaft.

Yes, the configuration of the engine is predicated on rotary motion. In fact there are no moving parts besides the rotational elements.

It can be fueled with gasoline or hydrogen.

On this edition of “Autoline After Hours” we are joined by Matthew Riley, the founder, CEO of Astron Aerospace and inventor of the Omega 1 and Chris Theodore of Theodore & Associates and technical advisor to Astron.

They explain the way this engine works.

Astron Omega 1. Looks complicated. But simpler and lighter than a reciprocating engine. *(Image: Astron Aerospace)*

Given the name of the company, there is a focus on use in aircraft applications. For example, drone use would be certainly something that this lightweight engine would lend itself to.

But it also is conceivably applicable to automotive applications: Think of how it could be used to power a vehicle using hydrogen as fuel—there would be no need for a fuel cell to transform the hydrogen.

Then on the second half of the show “Autoline’s” John McElroy and I are joined by Matt DeLorenzo of Kelley Blue Book and Jack Nerad of “America on the Road Radio.” All four of us are jurors for the North American Car, Truck and Utility Vehicle of the Year (NACTOY) awards and will soon be voting on the winners for the 2022 awards.

The finalists are:

CAR

Honda Civic
Lucid Air
Volkswagen GTI/Golf R

TRUCK

Ford Maverick
Hyundai Santa Cruz
Rivian R1T

UTILITY

Ford Bronco
Genesis GV 70
Hyundai IONIQ 5

The four of us discuss which vehicles are likely to win.

The surprising part of the discussion is how much agreement there is, with little in the way of dispute.

But you be the judge by watching it here.

Auto: High/Low

Posted on August 18, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Better (1) have lots of cash—or credit—and (2) be flexible in your vehicle choice

By Gary S. Vasilash

According to Kelley Blue Book automobile prices hit an all-time high in July—and affordability hit a 10-year low.

Here’s a number that is undoubtedly making OEMs and dealers happy and consumers not:

42,736

Stick a $ in front of that and that’s the average transaction price—a.k.a., what people actually pay—for a new vehicle.

This, according to KBB, is $3,223 more than it was one year ago and $402 more than in June 2021.

What’s more, incentives are down, therefore accounting, in part, for the decline in profitability.

That is, in July 2021 the average incentive was 5.9% of the average transaction price. In July 2020 it was 10.1%.

And while probably not as crazy as things are in residential real estate, it is a bit of a surprise to learn that the average price paid was above the manufacturers’ suggested retail price.

You read that right: people paid more than MSRP.

Another factor that plays into this price rise is the lack of inventory. While the last time you went out for a new vehicle the dealer lot was probably jammed with new vehicles, nowadays it has the look of a church parking lot on a Monday.

Surprising Trends in Auto Retail

Posted on July 20, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

You spend a lot. And you may be willing to forego the dealer “experience”

By Gary S. Vasilash

According to the most-recent Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index, the number of median weeks of income to buy a new vehicle is 37.

37 weeks to buy a new vehicle.

That’s the greatest number of weeks since they started measuring it back in 2012.

The firms found a trifecta of things contributing to this situation:

Vehicle prices increased
OEMs and dealers are putting less cash on the hood
Median incomes fell

It would have been worse, apparently. Financing rates decreased, so if that didn’t happen, there would have been higher monthly payments.

Gulp.

In May, the most recent month with figures, the average transaction price that people were paying for a new vehicle was $41,263 according to Kelley Blue Book.

Now admittedly that doesn’t mean that everyone pays that much. It wraps in figures for OEMs from Mitsubishi to Mercedes, from Chevy to Porsche. Cars, trucks, SUVs.

But still, a lot of money.

A lot of weeks to earn that money.

All that said, J.D. Power has announced that predicated on its analysis of the usage of OEM websites, 49% of vehicle shoppers are willing to purchase a new vehicle online.

This is an increase of 11% from 18 months ago—about the time that the effects of the pandemic kicked in in the U.S. market.

So what’s behind this:

Is it that people are more comfortable shopping for things online, as many of them have done during the past 18 months for everything from groceries to appliances?
Are more people simply questioning the visit to a dealer as being a necessity?
Is this a case where people go to a dealership, take the test drive, and then go home and search for a better deal?

Whatever the case, it is clear that there is a shift in how vehicles are going to be bought. And it is also clear that there is a shift in what people are willing to pay for vehicles.

Consider this: If you bought a new vehicle the first week of January this year, you wouldn’t pay it off until the week of September 10.