shinymetalboxes

Cars, culture & contingent considerations

2025 Toyota Camry XLE

Posted on May 24, 2024 by shinymetalboxes

Shake it up. . .

By Gary S. Vasilash

It may seem that the most controversial move made by Toyota for the 2025 Camry—the ninth generation of the midsize sedan—was to make all of them, be it FWD or AWD, LE, SE, XLE, or XSE trim, hybrids.

2025 Camry XLE. Stylish, well-equipped, and a hybrid. *(Image: Toyota)*

That’s right: Every Camry is a hybrid.

Under the hood across the board is a 2.5-liter, four-cylinder engine supplemented by electric motor generators such that the FWD version produces 225 net-combined horsepower (engine + motor) and the AWD 232 hp. This is Toyota’s fifth-generation hybrid system. Yes, they’ve been at it a while.

Depending on the drive configuration the fuel efficiency goes from a low of 44/43/44 mpg, city/highway/combined, for the XSE AWD (the top of the line) to 53/50/51 mpg for the LE FWD. To call 44 mpg combined “low” is, well, ridiculous.

Lots and lots and. . .

Realize that the Camry is the perennial best-selling car in the U.S. (22 years running), with the company delivering 290,649 units in the U.S. last year, units produced by Toyota in its manufacturing complex in Georgetown, Kentucky. (During the history of the plant, which opened in 1986, there have been more than 11 million Camrys built within those ever-growing walls. Yes, the expansion there has been notable such that today there is 9-million square feet under roof, which, according to Toyota, is equivalent to the size of 157 football fields.)

One might think that Toyota would not want to rock the proverbial boat, to make changes that might seem upsetting to what is clearly a loyal base of buyers. It’s not like there haven’t been hybrid powertrains in Camrys.

There have—since model year 2008 (calendar year 2007).

But it has always been a powertrain selection until now. You could get a Camry with or without electrification.

Yet the product planners at Toyota decided that the best thing to do was to go all in on hybrids.

Yikes! one might think.

The time is right

But broader market timing seems propitious, as there is the swerve away from full electric vehicles to electrified vehicles, a.k.a., hybrids. In 2023 Toyota Motor North America overall sales—including Lexus models, its bZ4X electric and Mirai fuel cell—included 29.2% hybrid models, up from 23.9% in 2023. One can only imagine the number when 2024 is calculated.

What I found to be surprising about the Camry XLE wasn’t under the hood but on the inside: there is trim covered with Dinamica, a microfiber, that has a quilted pattern. It is light gray. Black is available, as well.

Said another way: there is fabric covering surfaces on the door panels and dash board where you otherwise would see leather or plastic. The material is produced with recycled polyester without the use of organic solvents, so it is comparatively environmentally advantageous.

It is also surprising for those of us who are more used to seeing smooth materials that are naturally or mechanically grained.

A generational difference

However, when I showed the Camry to a Gen Z niece, she thought the interior was the most wonderful she’d ever seen. And when I explained that the car in question is a hybrid, it gained significantly more points in her book.

So what might seem like a risky move by Toyota is undoubtedly a correct one.

It is often said that a given generation doesn’t want to buy the type of vehicles that they’re parents had driven them in. In my niece’s case it was a Honda Odyssey and Ford Flex.

She and her husband presently drive a pickup for no reasons of utility.

But it seems that a sedan is on the table for her. And given what Toyota has done with the ’25 Camry, it is something that is of even greater interest.

And here’s another thing to consider: at her age she has a whole lot of vehicles in her future, so if she finds appeal in the Camry, odds are good that the company will get more business from her in the future. Given the reliability of Toyotas and given that the Camry is full of tech for purposes of entertainment and safety, it seems that the edge of style makes it all the more attractive.

Certainly a clever move by Toyota.

The Ford 180

Posted on February 15, 2024 by shinymetalboxes

By Gary S. Vasilash

“Ford has shifted its electric vehicle strategy so it concentrates on smaller, lower priced EVs and electric work vehicles such as pickup trucks and full-size vans, Farley said. Any EV larger than a Ford Escape small SUV ‘better be really functional or a work vehicle.’”

That is from an AP story by Tom Krisher about a presentation Ford CEO Jim Farley gave to the Wolfe Research Global Auto Conference in New York on February 15.

Farley also talked about the relationship between Ford and the UAW in light of last fall’s strike.

Farley said, “Our reliance on the UAW”—it has more UAW members that either GM or Stellantis—“turned out to be we were the first truck plant to be shut down.”

He was referring to the Kentucky Truck Plant, Ford’s largest plant and where the highly profitable F-Series Super Duty, Ford Expedition and Lincoln Navigator are produced.

Ford has pretty much placed its production bets in North America on things like the F-Series.

The only car the company has on offer in the U.S. is the Mustang, not exactly what one would describe as a “family vehicle,” so arguably it is something of a niche at most. Trucks and utes are where it is at, it seems, for the Blue Oval.

In the smallish category there are the Escape and the Bronco Sport, which are both based on the same platform. And the Maverick pickup truck, which is also based on the same C2 platform. This extremely popular pickup is built at a Ford plant in Hermosillo,Mexico, so some of Farley’s USA! USA! USA! chest thumping needs to be adjusted a bit.

But his comment about where the sweet spot for EVs is going to be is somewhat puzzling.

Right now Ford has three EVs, two for consumers and one for vocational use: the F-150 Lightning, Mustang Mach-E and E-Transit.

The Ford EVs for consumers: the Mustang Mach-E and the F-150 Lightning. *(Image: Ford)*

The first is, of course, a full-size pickup truck. The second trades on the muscle car performance of the Mustang. And the third is a vehicle for contractors.

Ford has been championing larger vehicles for the past few years for the simple reason that it is where it makes more money, so when it went EV it went big with the Lightning (and for power with the Mach-E).

It used to have the Focus to go up against the likes of the Honda Civic and Toyota Corolla, both of which still exist and do quite well in the market. Presumably neither Honda nor Toyota build those vehicles out of charitable impulses.

Ford used to have the Fusion to go up against the likes to the Honda Accord and the Toyota Camry, both of which. . . . Yes, same thing.

Ford—and it isn’t the only company in southeastern Michigan that has done this—has been messaging consumers that Bigger Is Better.

Suddenly Farley is talking about small vehicles.

Don’t get me wrong: small EVs, assuming that they can be made so that they are actually affordable for consumers and that provide a return to the OEMs, are undoubtedly a good idea to increase the number out on the roads.

Regardless of the size of the currently available EV (with the exception of Teslas) need to be sold to a still-skeptical public.

So there is that challenge.

And now Farley is doing a 180 and planning to go to the market with things that are small.

Which means he is going to need to convince people that on roadways populated with large F-150s and Explorers small Ford EVs are a good thing.

To which I say: Good luck.

Ford: Hybrids Should Be the Story

Posted on February 13, 2024 by shinymetalboxes

By Gary S. Vasilash

Much of the attention given to Ford’s Q4 2023 earnings call last week has been focused on CEO Jim Farley’s comment:

“[W]e made a bet in silence two years ago. We developed a super-talented skunk works team to create a low-cost EV platform. It was a small group, small team, some of the best EV engineers in the world, and it was separate from the Ford mothership. It was a start-up.

“And they’ve developed a flexible platform that will not only deploy to several types of vehicles but will be a large installed base for software and services that we’re now seeing at Pro.”

Somehow the inherent mystery of a “skunk works” has gotten people all excited.

Would they be so excited to know that the skunkworks methodology goes back to 1943 in the aircraft industry?

Yes, an 80-year-old approach.

Well, You’ve Got to Build It. . .

The other thing about this is that it is one thing for an R&D team operating independently to develop something and a whole other thing for that development to be engineered for and launched in production.

Launches have been something that Ford has been finding a bit troubling, so there’s that.

And it should be noted that the company also announced last week that its Ford e operation—as in the electric vehicles—lost $4.7 billion last year and the company anticipates losing $5 to 5.5 billion this year on Ford e.

The excitement of the skunk works project was certainly helpful from diverting some attention to that red ink.

What About This?

But what was largely overlooked was Farley’s comments on hybrids.

As in,

“Our global hybrid sales were up 20% last year, and we expect them to be up 40% this year.”

And:

“We now have the No. 1 and No. 2 best-selling hybrid trucks in the U.S. Maverick is No. 1. And we’re the No. 3 hybrid brand in the U.S. behind Toyota and Honda. But unlike them, our hybrids really sell best on trucks for our side.”

Given that Farley said “And margins on hybrids are closer to ICE, much higher than EV margins,” you’d think hybrids would be the headline going forward if for no other reason than the company can make money on them, something that it is not going to see on the EV side of the business until. . . . Well, that remains to be seen.

Maverick hybrid: Fuel efficiency and the energy to bust out the beats. *(Image: Ford)*

Not Exactly a Strong Third

While it is nice that Farley is so bullish about the company’s hybrid performance, it is worth really putting that into context.

Of course its hybrids “really sell best on trucks” because with the only hybrid Ford has without a box on the back is the Escape.

And as for it being number three, know that these are the number of hybrid sales for the three companies in 2023:

Toyota: 523,664
Honda: 293,640
Ford: 133,748

In other words, it sold less than half of what Honda did and about a quarter of what Toyota did.*

So while the claim is factually true, one should perhaps not be too chuffed about the Ford hybrid performance.

About a quarter of Toyota and Honda sales are hybrids.

About 7% of Ford’s sales are hybrids.

Did I mention the skunk works. . .?

*It is worth noting that until recently Toyota was treated like some technological troglodyte for its continued support of hybrids and its not all-in approach to EVs. Not only do we see that Ford is reconsidering its positioning vis-à-vis hybrids and full EVs, but General Motors, which doesn’t have much of a record in the hybrid space, has announced that it, too, is going to bring hybrids to the U.S. market. Farley pointed out on the earnings call that consumers can quickly do the math on the fuel efficiency benefits of hybrids and, perhaps the most important factor: “they don’t have to change their behaviors.” It is surprising that there seems to be so many auto execs who ignore the long public charging time required for EVs compared with pumping gas: perhaps this is a case that when they get behind the wheel of their company vehicles someone else has done the charging.

Fuel Cell Market to Expand, But. . .

Posted on February 12, 2024 by shinymetalboxes

Fuel cells are having their moment again for various vehicle applications, from light-duty to big rigs.

How big a moment?

Seems not trivial according to a report by MarketsandMarkets, which products the automotive fuel cell market will grow from $200 million this year to $2.1 billion by 2030. It will have a compound annual growth rate of 48%.

Where will the largest market be?

Asia Oceana.

Given that the geographies covered in the firm’s report also includes Europe, North America and Rest of the World, presumably that Asia Oceana includes China, which could explain the biggest market.

That said, with companies including Toyota, Honda and Hyundai continuing their hydrogen fuel cell development efforts, Japan and South Korea can’t be counted out as players, and consumers, in this field.

However. . .the global battery electric vehicle market size right now is on the order of $500 billion and it is estimated to be about $1.5 trillion by 2030, so even with the impressive growth of fuel cells, they’re still approximately the size of a dandelion in a redwood forest.

Lots and Lots of Tacomas

Posted on February 2, 2024 by shinymetalboxes

By Gary S. Vasilash

As John McElroy points out at the top of this edition of “Autoline After Hours,” in 2023 Chevy sold 71,081 Colorados, GMC 22,458 Canyons, Ford 32,334 Rangers, and Nissan 58,135 Frontiers.*

That is a total of 184,008 midsize trucks.

And another number: 234,768.

That’s the number of Toyota Tacomas sold in 2023.

There were 50,760 more Tacomas sold than all of the others on the market combined.

Clearly a popular truck.

Now there is a new generation Tacoma, one designed, engineered and manufactured in the North American market because that’s where the preponderance—and it is clearly quite a preponderance—of vehicles sold.

During the development of the ’24 Tacoma an objective was to create a “Badass adventure machine.”

It was configured to be capable.

It was configured with several trims—SR, SR5, TRD Off-Road, TRD PreRunner, TRD Sport, Limited—so there would be a bandwidth available for buyers.

Because Toyota is committed to providing electrified variants of all of its vehicles, the Tacoma was fitted with an optional hybrid powertrain, a propulsion system that provides 326 hp and 465 lb-ft of torque.

Because Toyota is still interested in providing something for those off-road enthusiasts (and to the economy buyers) who are interested in a third pedal, there is a six-speed manual available.

Sheldon Brown, chief engineer for the new Tacoma, talks with McElroy, Richard Truett of Automotive News, and me on this show for an entire hour.

If you’re interested in Tacomas specifically or trucks in general, it is worth your time.

*Who would have thought that Nissan outsold Ford in trucks?

Hybridized CUVs Matter

Posted on January 18, 2024 by shinymetalboxes

By Gary S. Vasilash

Here’s a fun fact: the Honda CR-V hybrid was the best-selling hybrid vehicle, bar none, in the U.S. market in 2023.

197,317 were delivered.

Honda CR-V Hybrid under its skin. *(Image: Honda)*

Meanwhile, over at Toyota, 161,125 RAV4 Hybrids were sold and an additional 26,073 RAV4 Primes, the plug-in hybrid, for a total of 187,198 hybrids.

GM has zero hybrids.

Ford has hybrid versions of the Escape, Maverick, Explorer, and F-150.

Combined, it delivered 133,743 hybrids.*

Ford sold 140,986 Escapes in 2023. That’s with all powertrain options.

Fewer than the Honda and Toyota hybrids.

Chevy sold 212,701 Equinoxes—none of which are electrified, and not all that many more than the CR-V hybrid (15,384, non-trivial, but when you take into account that Honda sold 361,457 CR-Vs in 2023, well. . . ).

Clearly, compact CUV hybrids are appealing.

Surprising GM is ignoring the market and Ford probably needs to ramp up its output.

Dodge has a hybrid version of the Hornet available, a crossover that launched last Spring, so its efforts are still nacent in this space. It sold a total 9,314 Hornets in 2023, of which 3,591 were the hybrid version, so there’s evidently some traction.

(Jeep has the Wrangler 4xe plug-in and the Grand Cherokee 4xe plug-in, of which it sold 67,429 and 45,684, respectively. Neither, of course, is likely cross-shopped with a CR-V or RAV4, but still nice numbers.)

*Here’s a big number–the electrified Toyotas sold in 2023: 565,800. With the exceptions of 2,737 Mirai fuel cell electric vehicles and 9,329 bZ4X BEVs, all hybrids.

2024 NACTOY Winners Examined

Posted on January 4, 2024 by shinymetalboxes

By Gary S. Vasilash

This morning the 2024 North American Car, Truck and Utility Vehicle of the Year (NACTOY) awards were announced.

And with no further ado. . .

North American Car of the Year: Toyota Prius & Prius Prime
North American Truck of the Year: Ford Super Duty
North American Utility Vehicle of the Year: Kia EV9

Kia EV9: 2024 NACTOY Utility of the Year. In 2023 Kia also took that NACTOY category with the EV6. Seems that company really has it going on with electric utes. *(Image: Kia)*

To look at this a more closely:

The Car category also included the Hyundai IONIQ 6 EV and the Honda Accord. Several people whom I’ve talked with (full disclosure: I am one of the 50 jurors for the awards) thought it would more likely be the Accord than the Prius.

While all three are excellent cars, the transformation of the Prius from something that was somewhat awkward to an object of desire (with really good gas mileage) undoubtedly pushed it over the top.

In trucks, the Ford Super Duty was up against the Chevrolet Colorado midsize pickup and the Chevrolet Silverado EV. The NACTOY awards are consumer-centric, not commercial-centric. Which led me to wonder about the Super Duty being a finalist. Then two things happened:

I talked with Detroit Free Press car reviewer Mark Phelan (also a juror) who pointed out that plenty of people buy Super Duty trucks as daily drivers
I spent time behind the wheel of a Super Duty and discovered that in terms of the tech and the amenities it gave nothing up compared with cars or utilities

That the Silverado EV didn’t take the trophy probably surprised some people at GM HQ because this is their Ultium-based offering in the full-size truck segment and it betters the specs of the Ford F-150 Lightning, the EV pickup that won the NACTOY award in 2023. Perhaps the $74,800 price for a work truck kept Chevy from winning.

And in utilities, the finalists that the Kia EV9 faced were the Genesis Electrified GV70 and the Hyundai Kona/Kona EV. In mid-November when the finalists were announced the Kona wasn’t on the list and the Volvo EX30, a small electric crossover, was. But Volvo had to pull the vehicle from consideration because it wasn’t going to have vehicles in-market before the end of 2023.

Two things about the utility situation:

Kia also won the category last year with the EV6
As Genesis is a sibling company with Hyundai and Kia, it is clear that the three companies have remarkable capabilities in the utility space—including the electric utility space

And that second point raises another consideration:

The traditional domestics had the Truck category. But nothing in the other two categories.

Is that a model for long-term success?

Another List With Some Missing Names

Posted on December 8, 2023 by shinymetalboxes

By Gary S. Vasilash

Kelley Blue Book, an outfit with plenty of folks who know a whole lot about vehicles, their value and what consumers like or don’t about those vehicles, has come up with its list of “Best Buy Awards.”

In other words, the vehicles that were launched last year (or which underwent a redesign) that, based on a variety of criteria, KBB thinks people will be happier to acquire than competitive vehicles not on the list.

So without further ado, here are the winners of the 2024 Kelley Blue Book Best Buy Awards (all model year 2024 vehicles):

Best New Model: Toyota Prius
Best Compact Car: Honda Civic
Best Midsize Car: Honda Accord
Best Subcompact SUV: Hyundai Kona
Best Compact SUV: Honda CR-V
Best Midsize SUV: Kia Telluride
Best Full-Size SUV: Ford Expedition
Best Compact Truck: Ford Maverick
Best Midsize Truck: Toyota Tacoma
Best Full-Size Truck: Ford F-150
Best Minivan: Toyota Sienna
Best Electric Vehicle: Hyundai Ioniq 5
Best 3-Row Electric Vehicle: EV9
Best Electric Truck: Ford F-150 Lightning

One of the things that is evident from this list is that Ford is a superlative truck company.

Which leads to a question: Where’s anything from General Motors? No Cadillac? Chevy? Buick? GMC? Not one?

Or the company formerly known as Chrysler? Nothing from the Stellantis cadre (Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, Ram, Alfa Romeo, Fiat)? The company that invented the minivan doesn’t make the Best Buy minivan?

And there is also the noticeable lack of anything with a European pedigree.

Looking into the Ford wins, in the Compact Truck category, there is really only the Maverick, so Ford gets a bonus there because it competes with nothing.

And the only other electric full-size truck that would qualify would be the Chevrolet Silverado EV, though it probably came out too late in the year to be assessed by KBB, so Ford Lightning by default (although it is a bit odd, given that the Lightning was launched in April 2022, not 2023).

But credit where credit is due.

Some Surprising Toyota Numbers

Posted on January 4, 2023 by shinymetalboxes

By Gary S. Vasilash

One thing that is occurring is that OEMs are decreasing the number of types of vehicles that they have on offer.

Consider, for example, Ford.

If you want a “car,” then you’d better be happy with a Mustang because that’s all that’s available.

It has gone from arguably a “full-line” manufacturer to a SUV/truck manufacturer.

And it is doing well in that truck category, as the company announced that the F-Series is the best-selling truck in the U.S. for 46 years running, and that it sold more than 640,000 trucks in 2022 (this isn’t just the F-150 but the F-550 chassis cab, so it is a mix of personal and commercial vehicles).

Toyota is a full-line manufacturer, as it builds cars, trucks and utes.

And while it might seem as though this spreading might cause some dilution of vehicle sales (i.e., with a range to chose from, a consumer might pick a car rather than a ute or a truck rather than a car, thereby diminishing the overall sales for a given vehicle), when it added up its 2022 U.S. sales it had some impressive numbers:

The Camry is the best-selling passenger car for 21 years running
The Tacoma is the number-one small pickup and has been for the past 18 years
The RAV4 is now the best-selling SUV for seven years in a row

While some might think that the car segment isn’t all that interesting, know that it sold 295,201 Camrys in 2022.

It also sold 222,216 Corollas (the number-one selling compact in the U.S.)

And there are other cars on offer: Supra, GR86, Mirai, Avalon, and Prius.

The Tacoma clearly is a truck with legs. There were 237,323 sold in 2022. A point of comparison would be the combined number of the Chevy Colorado and GMC Canyon: 117,016.

The RAV4 run is perhaps the most impressive of all. While Ford and GM can legitimately argue—as can the Stellantis Jeep brand—that they have deep, deep SUV know-how and capability, the RAV4, of which 399,941 were sold in 2022, just keeps leading the list.

Seems that offering a full line can have some advantages for the OEMs’ sales and the customers’ choice.

Toyota’s Approach to Environmentally Appropriate Vehicles

Posted on December 19, 2022 by shinymetalboxes

By Gary S. Vasilash

There is an on-going criticism of Toyota that it is behind other OEMs when it comes to electric vehicles.

Which is true if the companies in comparison are Ford and GM.

At present, Toyota has one full battery electric vehicle, the bZ4X. It also has one hydrogen-powered electric vehicle—generally referred to as a “fuel cell electric vehicle” or “FCEV”—the Mirai.

At present there are no Lexus electric vehicles, battery or otherwise.

The EPA has recently published “The 2022 EPA Automotive Trends Report.” It examines greenhouse gas emissions and fuel economy.

In the report it shows that from 2016 to 2021, the miles per gallon for the aggregate of vehicles produced by the following companies are:

Ford: 22.8 to 22.9 mpg
GM: 22.4 to 21.6 mpg
Stellantis: 21.5 to 21.3 mpg

In other words, Ford improved by 0.1 mpg while GM and Stellantis both went in the wrong direction.

Similarly, the CO2 measures are:

Ford: 389 to 385 grams per mile
GM: 397 to 414 grams per mile
Stellantis: 413 to 417 grams per mile

In the case of CO2 measures, less is better. Ford got a bit better. The other two didn’t.

Stellantis presently has no full battery electric vehicles. It does have plug-in hybrid (PHEV) versions of the Pacifica, Wrangler and Grand Cherokee.

Ford has battery electrics. The F-150 Lightning, the Mustang Mach-E and the E-Transit. It also has hybrid versions of the Escape, Maverick, F-150, and Explorer. Lincoln offers hybrid versions of the Aviator and the Corsair but no battery electrics.

GM has the Chevrolet Bolt EV and Bolt EUV, Cadillac LYRIQ and HUMMER EV battery electric vehicles at present and no hybrids.

So how does Toyota measure on the EPA metrics?

Toyota: 25.0 to 27.1 mpg

and

Toyota: 355 to 327 grams per mile

Or simply put, in the aggregate, the vehicles that the company put out in the market between 2016 and 2021 are, from an environmental standpoint, better than the vehicles from the other three manufacturers.

And it is worth noting that in 2021 Toyota, with sales of 2.3-million vehicles, was the top manufacturer in the U.S. GM sold 2.2 million, Ford 1.9 million and Stellantis 1.8 million.

It didn’t have the bZ4X last year, so that doesn’t count in its numbers. It did have the Mirai, but the number of those it sells could pretty much fit in the parking lot of a large stadium.

But what it does have are the Prius and Venza and hybrid versions of the Corolla, Camry, Avalon, Sienna, Highlander, Sequoia, RAV4, Tundra, and Lexus ES, UX, NX, RX, LS, and LC.

It could be argued that those vehicles contributed a lot to the “greener” performance of Toyota compared with Ford, GM and Stellantis.

It could also be argued that especially compared with Ford and GM Toyota is some sort of Luddite when it comes to green powertrain technology. . .yet the EPA figures don’t indicate that what it is putting on the road is in any way behind the curve.

On this edition of “Autoline After Hours” we are joined by Jordan Choby, vice president of Powertrain Control at Toyota Motor North America R&D. He joins us from the Toyota Gardena, California campus where fuel cell development is occurring.

Choby explains that, yes, Toyota is working on battery electric vehicles and it plans to have 30% of its global volume be electric vehicles by 2030, but that the company is operating on model that is providing consumer choice regarding the type of engine or motor that is under the hood of their vehicle.

Choby talks with “Autoline’s” John McElory, Tom Murphy of Autoweek, and me.

And you can see the show here.