shinymetalboxes

Cars, culture & contingent considerations

Post-Auto Show

Posted on January 12, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

The North American International Auto Show (NAIAS) is sponsored by the Detroit Auto Dealers Association (DADA). Which makes a whole lot of sense. Dealers want to sell vehicles, and what better venue than an expo hall full of shiny sheet metal and a wide array of interactive displays that can draw people in to spend hours looking at things ranging from the bread-and-butter to the exotic, from the gotta-have to the if-only.

NAIAS has historically been held during January, as the timing provided a variety of benefits. For one thing, it was always the first major auto show of the year. That was beneficial to the OEMs who wanted to get their newest of the new—and even what could be coming in the years to come—in front of the public, sooner rather than later.

There isn’t exactly a whole lot going on in Detroit in January, which is when winter really starts in earnest, so this meant that those consumers who were looking for something to do had it.

But then there were some issues that arose, one of which was a huge one: CES. The event that was previously known as the “Consumer Electronics Show.” Two key words there: Consumer. Electronics.

Auto OEMs are interested in consumers, of course, and, more importantly, they have been, especially as Tesla became something more than a quirky company sticking computer batteries into a Lotus Elise chassis, trying to position themselves as electronics, or tech, companies.

CES was happening adjacent to NAIAS. OEMs (and suppliers, which has not been a huge part of NAIAS, but one that was growing) started doing introductions at the massive show in Las Vegas (where, let’s admit, the weather tends to be friendlier than Detroit in January). Journalists were going out to Las Vegas. OEM execs from places like Germany had to weigh where they’d travel to (see previous parenthetical remark).

So NAIAS made a move. It decided to skip its show in January 2020 with plans to hold a SXSW-like experience in downtown Detroit in June 2020.

But then there was March 2020 and the beginning of the seriousness that is COVID-19.

The reimagined event was canceled.

And yesterday, Rod Alberts, executive director of both DADA and NAIAS, stated, “While auto shows remain an important platform to promote new mobility innovations and to help people make major vehicle purchase decisions, the traditional auto show model is changing.”

Not changing a little bit. A lot. Which has to be a tough thing for an outfit that has gotten so proficient over the years putting on tradtional auto shows.

Alberts announced an event that will be held in Pontiac, Michigan, September 21-26, 2021, named “Motor Bella.” It will be held not at a traditional expo center but at the M1 Concourse, which features car condos, a 1.5-mile track and is having a restaurant and event space built.

Tellingly, it is built on property that was once covered by the General Motors Pontiac West Assembly Plant. Things change. Factories give way to race tracks. Auto shows give way to something else.

While NAIAS is a show, Motor Bella will be more of an event, one that will take advantage of the grounds of the M1. There will be a concentration on the outside, not the confines of a building. People will not just look. They will also do. It will be active, not passive.

Credit to Alberts and his associates for recognizing “the traditional auto show is changing.”

More credit to them for doing something about it.–gsv

NACTOY 2021 Winners Announced

Posted on January 11, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

The NACTOY jury presented its awards this morning:

Car of the Year: 2021 Hyundai Elantra
Truck of the Year: 2021 Ford F-150
Utility of the Year: 2021 Mustang Mach-E

Yes, Ford takes two Ed Welburn-designed trophies.

2021 Hyundai Elantra: Look only at the care taken on the exterior sheet metal. (*Image: Hyundai*)

And on the subject of two: this is the second time the Elantra has taken the NACTOY Car of the Year, with the first being in 2012.

Briefly: there are 50 jurors who work for a range of publications—physical and digital—and broadcast outlets. Vehicles selected were those which were available for sale during CY 2020.

The Mustang Mach-E: Ford gets electric right with this model. (*Image: Ford*)

Thoughts:

Elantra: The seventh generation of a sedan has gotten a lot more attention and investment—even as other OEMs are retreating from the segment. Hyundai didn’t stint. What’s more, the company has rolled out three versions—the everyday driver, a hybrid and a performance variant from the start.
F-150: The F-Series has been the best-selling pickup in the U.S. for 44 years running, so (1) the team that built this new one knows a whole lot about how to put together trucks and (2) they surely don’t want to be the ones who break that streak. Odds are more than good that this new F-150 will handily rack up the 45^th year.
Mustang Mach-E: Not only does this vehicle make us rethink what a ‘Mustang’ is, but it also reminds us that the company that made the automobile accessible to everybody in 1908 is doing the same thing for electric vehicles in 2021. And what’s more, it is a damn good execution.–gsv

2021 F-150: Clearly unstoppable. (*Image: Ford*)

Jeff Stout of Yanfeng: The Inside Story

Posted on January 11, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

“Exterior design gets them in the vehicle. Interior design keeps them there.”

That may be an old truism, but it is likely accurate.

Consider—what if you’re in the market for a new car and see something that really looks awesome. You know that you’d be proud each and every time you walk up to it in your driveway. You know that you’d be proud to have it in your driveway so your neighbors can see what incredible taste you have.

So you open the door, climb inside, get behind the wheel and—meh.

Nothing special. Maybe underwhelming.

So you figure that this may not be the best choice. After all, while you’re going to see the outside of the vehicle for a minute or two as you approach it, you’re going to be looking at—and using—what’s on the inside for hours on end.

Interiors matter.

A whole lot.

And as the transportation industry moves toward a state where there may be less ownership and increased use of ride hailing, what is going to make the most difference between using Service L and Service U may be the interior execution and amenities.

Yanfeng is a global supplier, with more than 240 branches and some 64,000 employees networked around the world. It specializes in interiors, seating, cockpit electronics, passive safety and more.

Yanfeng XiM 20 concept model: determining the elements of the interior moving forward. *(Image: Yanfeng)*

Jeff Stout leads global research into technology and mobility for Yanfeng. (To the point of the wide span of the company’s operations, he has an office in Holland, Michigan.)

One of the areas that he and his colleagues are most interested in is what electrification and automation are going to mean vis-à-vis automotive interior development.

For example, in an EV, where there is certainly a consideration when it comes to using stored energy, they are looking at improved thermal management approaches, such as using large interior surfaces—from door trim panels to headliners—as heat sources rather than relying on the blower of a conventional HVAC system.

When it comes to autonomous driving, there are a range of considerations, from monitoring driver awareness for Levels 2 and 3, to how do you assure that the interior of a vehicle is sanitized in shared vehicles so that people are willing to climb in one that someone has climbed out of. (In this case, one of the answers is UV light.)

Stout talks about these and other topics on this edition of “Autoline After Hours” with “Autoline’s” John McElroy, Pete Bigelow of Automotive News and me.

It is an hour-long, wide ranging discussion that goes from the inside of vehicles to the market at large, to an analysis and assessment of what’s happening now and what could happen in the not-too-distant future.

And you can see it here. —gsv

Mercedes Hyperscreen in the Age of the Jitterbug

Posted on January 10, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Age 55-64. That’s the point at which the mean net worth of a person in the U.S. is in excess of $1-million. Specifically, according to the most recent figures from the Federal Reserve, it is $1175,900.

For those 65-74 it is more, $1,217,700.

For those beyond that, less, $977,600.

Mercedes-Benz has announced the MBUX Hyperscreen. It is a screen that will be offered as an option in the forthcoming EQS, an electric version of the Mercedes S-Class.

The Hyperscreen is approximately 56 inches wide—think from one side of the car to the other—and covers 377 square inches.

There are 12 actuators under the screen that provide haptic feedback.

The Mercedes MBUX Hyperscreen: information-intensive. (*Image: Mercedes-Benz*)

There are 8 CPU core, 24-gigabyte RAM and 46.4 GM per second RAM memory bandwidth.

It will activate a massage functions in the seats. It will remind you of someone’s birthday.

Navigation. Entertainment. Climate. The status of the electric propulsion system. Oh, and the “classic cockpit display with two circular instruments has been refreshed with an all-new digital look” for the Hyperscreen.

The price of a Mercedes S-Class starts at about $173,000.

Odds are, the EQS will be a bit more expensive.

Which leads to a question of the type of person who is likely be able to afford the EQS. Probably someone who is in a higher income bracket. Which according to the aforementioned Federal Reserve figures is likely to be someone who is in a higher age bracket.

The issue of cognitive overload provided by the Hyperscreen certainly things like a possibility.

After all, at the risk of being ageist: those Jitterbug phones have huge buttons and a simple interface. . . .–gsv

China Sales Compared to U.S.—and They’re Not Done Yet

Posted on January 9, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

According to Automotive News, for 2020 there were 14,645,049 light vehicles sold. This is down 14.4% compared with the total number for 2019, 17,104,792. Which is to say that while COVID-19 had an impact on overall sales, it wasn’t as substantial as it had been feared to be.

China, too, was affected by the pandemic. And its sales were affected, as well.

That said, numbers for the first 11 months of 2020 have it, according to LMC Automotive, that there were 21.64 million light vehicles sold in China. About a third more than U.S. sales.

And there is still an additional month to go in the Chinese market.

In November there were 2,710,957 vehicles delivered in China. So if that number was repeated in December, that would be a total of 24.35 million units, or nearly 10 million more than were sold in the U.S.

One thing that is interesting about the China market is that the top-selling brands are probably not what you’d expect.

Volkswagen Lavida–number-one in China. (*Image: Volkswagen*)

The number-one brand in terms of sales and production is Volkswagen. What’s more, the top-selling vehicle is the Volkswagen Lavida, a Passat-like sedan that is available only in China. The car was the best-selling model in China in 2019, and even the folks at Volkswagen acknowledge, “but hardly anyone in Germany has ever heard of it.”–gsv

New Look for GM

Posted on January 8, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

This is General Motors’ logo since 2015:

This is GM’s logo since today:

While the kerning on the top logo looks a bit off (look at the top left of the “M” in relation to the “G”), it does have an appearance that one could argue is “classic” General Motors: A substantive, staid business that is solid (especially with the horizontal bar, which appears as though it could be made out of ultra-high-strength steel).

It looks as though it is saying: “This is a Fortune 500 company.”

The new logo is different.

It is friendlier. More casual.

Something that could be affixed to a trendy bag or arm patch on a technical jacket.

If the top logo is that of a company on the Dow Jones, the new logo is one that says, “I’m not out of place in the S&P”–the index that includes Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook. . .and Tesla.

Sharon Gauci, GM executive director of Global Industrial Design, said of the new design was carefully ideated and crafted: “At every step we wanted to be intentional and deliberate because this logo signifies creative and innovative thinking across the global General Motors family.”

One of the objectives of the new logo is to telegraph a message that GM, especially as it undertakes a massive electrification effort–30 electric vehicles globally by the end of 2025–and is a leader in autonomous driving tech, is an of-the-moment relevant company, not a classic, predictable manufacturer of shiny metal objects.

Of course, people buy vehicles, not logos (in 2005 GM started putting postage-stamp size GM logos on all of its vehicles, which is stopped doing in 2009), so the graphic design team has done their bit, now it is up to the rest of the organization to deliver.–gsv

Kia’s New Badge

Posted on January 6, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Kia is a company on the move, with hopes to have global sales of 2.92 million vehicles in 2021, up from the 2.61-million sales it had in 2020.

This will be bolstered by its brand transformation plan that is predicated on something called “Plan S,” a business strategy. The company is working to improve its profitability through flexible production operations in the regions it operates in.

For example, in the U.S. it produces the Telluride, Sorrento and K5 (previously known as the Optima), and in 2020, the Telluride (75,129) and Sorento (74,677) were its third and fourth overall best-selling vehicles in the market.

And there is something else that will certainly help.

Going from this logo:

To this:

Yes, that will certainly make a difference for a company whose vehicles are so design-forward.–gsv

Train Time

Posted on January 6, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

According to the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), in 2020 is screened approximately 61% fewer passengers in 2020 compared to 2019, 324-million vs. 824-million.

And while there are undoubtedly lots of people who are anxious (in a good way) to climb on a plane with the family and go to Orlando to feel the socially distanced embrace of Mickey, business travel, which is where airlines really make their nut, with overall predictions that there will be a decline of double-digit magnitudes, with Bill Gates—who knows a little more than something about business, to say nothing of travel—anticipating it may be down by as much as 50%.

Which leads me back to yesterday’s subject: trains.

Is it possible that there could be a return to the rails for business travelers in parts of the country that aren’t the East Coast?

Having spent a non-trivial amount of time in Detroit Metro, especially early in the morning, I’ve seen (and been at) the gates for blurry-eyed business travelers on their way to ORD or MDW.

They’ve left their house, driven to the airport, gone around and around the parking structure attached to the terminal (surprising that DTW has a great terminal yet a parking structure without detailed information about where there really are parking spaces), clearing security (even for those who have purchased CLEAR, there are many times when you ask someone, “This this the CLEAR line?” as it seems like it ought to be for those who only take an annual trip to MCO), then waiting to board. The flight—and Chicago flights are sometimes not as quick as they ought to be—finally gets you there.

In other words, it is a multi-hour adventure.

The train from Detroit to Chicago takes five hours. Let’s face it, it is well known that because more people take Delta rather than Amtrak, Amtrak in places like Detroit isn’t what it could be were it to have more passengers (= revenue).

But consider the experience. Drive to station. Park. Get on train. Fire up wifi. Sleep. Reconnect. Arrive. All in, less time.

Arguably, there could be more robust internet put on trains (additional mass isn’t as critical when you’re talking about something that is flat on the ground vs. at 35,000 feet) such that the ever-prevalent Zoom meetings could be conducted during the train trips.

Admittedly, this seems not likely.

So would someone saying there would be a 60% drop in air travelers back in January 2020.

Can Hydrogen Carry the Freight (and Commuters)?

Posted on January 5, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

One of the things that people probably don’t think too much about is the extent of the U.S. freight rail network: approximately 140,000 miles of track, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.

Also according to the US DOT, as of 2016 (its most recent number) there were 26,716 Class 1 freight locomotives hauling 315,227 Class 1 freight cars. And Amtrak had 434 locomotives and 1,402 cars.

As for transit rail, 7,190 vehicles for commuter rail, 10,775 for heavy rail, and 2,553 for light rail.

All of which is to say that there are a lot of goods and people being transported by rail.

2021 Toyota Mirai. It is powered by hydrogen. Can trains be, too? *(Image: Toyota)*

So it was interesting to note that two firms have announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding in which NextGenPropulsion (NGP) is going to be purchasing solid-oxide fuel cell (SOFC) systems from Fuel Cell Enabling Technologies (FCET), which developed the system.

Odd are you have not heard of NGP or FCET. We hadn’t.

But it is interesting to know that on the NGP team there are people who had worked with people at the University of Birmingham and the University of Warwick in the U.K.—and as you may recall, the steam locomotive had its start in the U.K., as George Stephenson is credited with developing the world’s first successful locomotive. Apparently there are prototype hydrogen-powered trains on the rails in the U.K.

However, those locomotives are using PEM fuel cells and the NGP tech is SOFC, which, according to Dr. Keith Baarson, a founder and a chief engineer of NGP, says represents “a high-efficiency ell at a price point that will make the commercialization of hydrogen-powered rail not only a possibility, but an obvious replacement for current, century-old technology.”

Sure, fuel-cell powered Toyota Mirais and Hyundai Nexos may be sexier, but things like this is where there can be return-on-investment for users, so it is undoubtedly an area where hydrogen is going to achieve a significant presence.

New Bentayga: Big Hopes for the Hybrid

Posted on January 4, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Although full electric vehicles garner lots of attention, there is still something to be said for non-full-electric vehicles: plug-in hybrids, which have bigger batteries than non-plug-in hybrids, so they can go farther on full electric power. (Yes, conventional hybrids have an EV button that allows them to creep along without the engine running, but you surely can’t depend on that range being much, especially if you do something crazy like turning on the HVAC system.)

New Bentley Hybrid. Cruise through the city center on electricity. (*Images: Bentley*)

And the latest to be said about plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) comes from Bentley, which is launching the Bentayga Hybrid.

Not only does Bentley proclaim that it is “the only electrified true-luxury SUV in the world”—presumably things like the Audi Q5 PHEV aren’t sufficiently “true”—but makes a very bold prediction: the PHEV Bentayga “will become the best-selling member of the new Bentayga family.”

Other family members are the Bentayga V8 and the Bentayga Speed. Neither of which, obviously, is focused on ecological motoring.

The Bentayga Hybrid provides “up to 31 miles of electric-only range” measured on the NDEC protocol. So one could roll through London on electricity alone, then take advantage of the 3.0-liter twin turbocharged V6 that provides 443 bhp and 516 lb-ft of torque and open it up on the motorway.

The hybrid features a 17.3-kWh lithium battery and a 94-kW motor. The motor is housed in the transmission case, between the engine and the transmission proper.

Like a Ford Explorer.

Bentley first offered a Bentayga Hybrid in 2018. One of the key features of that vehicle was the Power Dock, which was co-designed and developed along with Philippe Starck: it was designed as a home charging station and is described as “a functional piece of art that will enhance any home.”

Charging device designed, in part, by Phillipe Starck.

Buy a car. Get an artwork.

According to Bentley stats, over 90% of the customers used their first-gen Bentayga “a daily basis or several times a week.” Imagine. You buy an SUV that costs ~$160,000 and you drive it regularly.

Here’s a quote from Adrian Hallmark, chairman and CEO of Bentley Motors, that is worth pondering: “The Bentayga Hybrid is the next step on our journey to becoming the world’s leading sustainable luxury mobility company. Bentley will transform from a 100-year-old luxury car company to a new, sustainable, wholly ethical role model for luxury, and the Bentayga Hybrid is the first model to pioneer our company’s recently announced Beyond100 strategy.”

Surely, this one vehicle has a heavy load.