EVs: Just You Wait

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Those Skeptics will change their outlook

By Gary S. Vasilash

Of the 100% of people who are planning to purchase a new or used vehicle in the next two years, Cox Automotive finds that 55% are “Considerers,” as in considering an electric vehicle and the remaining 45% are “Skeptics,” as in interested only in internal combustion engines.

From a demographic point of view, the Considerers are probably more appealing to dealers in that they have a higher average income than the Skeptics ($71,756 v. $60,625) and are younger (42 v. 46), which means they may have more vehicles in their future.

However, speaking of the future, Cox Automotive personnel expect that within the next three to five years 54% of the Skeptics will become Considerers, then an additional 26% in 10 years, meaning there will just be 20% remaining dedicated to combustion.

It is interesting to note that as for now, when it comes to barriers to EV adoption Considerers rank as 1 and 2 “Too expensive” and “Lack of charging stations,” while Skeptics flip the order of those two.

What is an interesting difference in barrier rankings is that for the Skeptics “Inability to charge EV at home” is in third place (tied with “Concern about battery losing charge”) while it is in fifth (or last) place for the Considerers.

Which presumably means home charging is acutely important for EV sales.

There are some potentially concerning numbers regarding the Considerers, however.

For example, in 2023 the EV Buyer was 41 years old, had an average household income of $139,00 and 84% of them had excellent/very good credit.

In 2024 the Considerer is 42, has an average household income of $72,000 and 53% of them have excellent/very good credit.

Still, according to Isabelle Helms, vice president of Research and Market Intelligence at Cox Automotive, “We remain bullish on the long-term future of EV sales in America, as many Skeptics today will be carefully considering an EV by the end of the decade. With more infrastructure, education, and technological innovation and improvements, we believe electric vehicle sales will continue to grow in the long term.”

One thinks about Keynes’ quote regarding the long run. . . .

Not All the Sounds in Auburn Hills Are Fratzonic

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Keeping the business card printers busy. . .

By Gary S. Vasilash

Recently Tim Kuniskis announced his retirement. Or, well, Stellantis announced his retirement. Kuniskis was the CEO of both Dodge brand at Stellantis and Ram.

The ’24 Dodge Charger: a muscle car with a motor, not an engine. Things change. So do execs. (Image: Dodge)

Having had the opportunity to chat with him on several Dodge-related occasions I concluded that the man was really into the Dodge brand in a way that wasn’t a “This is my job so I’ll do what I need to do in order to fulfill what needs to be done, period.” There was evident commitment.

Over the past several years Dodge has become an enthusiast niche brand, one predicated on high-octane muscle cars. Dodge has made an art of creating cars that are pretty much unlike anything else—anymore.

It once was that there were the Dodge Challenger, Ford Mustang and the Chevy Camaro that would line up at stoplights on Telegraph or Woodward in metro Detroit like something out of the Fast and the Furious. (There was also the Pontiac GTO, but given the non-existence of that marque as a going concern, we’ll let that pass.)

The Mustang still has serious muscle in some of its trim packages, but arguably it has become something more “continental,” as the vehicle is also being sold in markets where drivers are more interested in roads that curve than going in a straight line for a quarter mile.

The Camaro has been put on a shelf.

So that pretty much leaves the Challenger and its four-door stablemate, Charger.

Muscle cars—the Dodge slogan is “Brotherhood of Muscle”—probably isn’t an optimal space to be in right now given concerns with emissions.

So Dodge is going to offer a car that will produce 670 hp and do a quarter mile in 11.5 seconds. An electric car.

About it Kuniskis said: “The electrified 2024 Dodge Charger Daytona Scat Pack delivers Charger Hellcat Redeye levels of performance and announces its presence through the world’s first Fratzonic Chambered Exhaust.”

Even that car though it is a coupe not a sedan, the name “Charger” for an EV is just too good to pass up.

According to Dodge, the ’24 Charger battery has a nickel cobalt aluminum chemistry that is, in effect, “the battery-electric version of high-octane fuel.”

The Fratzonic Chambered Exhaust is said to produce “Hellcat levels of sound intensity”—or that should be generates that sound because while the Hellcat’s rumble is a consequence of combustion, there’s no combustion going on in the new car.

While there will also be versions of the ’24 Charger with a 3.0-liter twin-turbo Hurricane engine that produces up to 550 hp, and while that will probably handily outsell the electric version in the long run (i.e., there will probably be a whole lot of early adopters of the electric version because it is, well, cool, but then that number will be satisfied and the sales will go down as quickly as they went up), the corporate attention will be focused on the electric version because that’s what good corporate citizens do.

While it might seem that there is a correlation between Kuniskis’ retirement and the electrification of Dodge, it may simply be that after 30 years in a tough business the man needs a break.

But wait, there’s more. . .

Or it may be that things are really changing at Stellantis North America.

Kuniskis’ job is being split. Christine Feuell, who is running Chrysler, is taking on the Ram assignment.

Matt McAlear, who was running Dodge sales, is now CEO of the brand.

Earlier this year Carlos Zarlenga replaced Mark Stewart as chief operating officer for Stellantis North America. Zarlenga has been with Stellantis since 2022, which is certainly not a long time. (Stewart took over Goodyear: regardless of the propulsion system, vehicles need tires.)

Last week Matt Thompson was named senior vice president of Stellantis U.S. Retail Sales “effective immediately” because Jason Stoicevich, who had been named to that position in February, having been the chairman and CEO of Stellantis Canada before that, has left the company. Suddenly.

Something is evidently going on in Auburn Hills.

When there are changes like these, when the industry itself is in flux, you’ve got to wonder just what is going on. .

2024 Hyundai Sonata Hybrid Limited

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The future is now

By Gary S. Vasilash

When I first saw the 2024 Hyundai Sonata Hybrid I was surprised. Quite surprised. While Hyundai—at least since the introduction of the model year 2011 Sonata with the “Fluidic Sculpture” design language—has consistently been turning out vehicles with striking designs, (1) most of those vehicles of late are crossovers and (2) I’ve always been a greater admirer of the Hyundai Elantra, the Sonata’s compact kin.

But the Sonata has undergone a serious refresh for MY 2024.

For most OEMs this would be a concept car. For Hyundai it is a midsize sedan that you can buy at a dealership near you. (Images: Hyundai)

When the vehicle was unveiled late last summer, Simon Loasby, head of the Hyundai Style Group at Hyundai Motor Company, said, “We wanted to give Sonata a more contemporary design statement,” which is an absolute understatement.

If Loasby considers that “contemporary,” then I think he must live in the future, because the lines on the vehicle, front, sides, back, and roof, contribute to a car that is striking and stylish in appearance.

Advance. Repeat.

It is almost as though the designers said to themselves, “OK, let’s design the most-advanced looking Sonata that we can.” They did that. Then started from that point and designed one that goes beyond that.

A slogan that has been around for a bit has it that “lighting is the new chrome.” If the LED lighting execution on the Sonata is chrome, it brings to mind William Gibson’s title “Burning Chrome” because it has an advanced appearance. (It also makes one wonder whether a generation raised in Suburbans and Grand Caravans might not find the Sonata aesthetic far more appealing.)

Comfort, Too.

And this innovative appearance continues into the vehicle, where there are seats that are comfortable (and I’d describe them as “contemporary” because I’m still waiting for the Aeron chair analog, and even though that was introduced in 1994, when it comes, it will be, apparently, the future), and an instrument panel that combines the digital and the analog (a.k.a., knobs and buttons) in a way that speaks to appearance and ergonomics (with too many going for the former and ignoring the latter).

According to Merriman Webster, ergonomics is “an applied science concerned with designing and arranging things people use so that the people and things interact most efficiently and safely.” Which is presumably something that Hyundai interior designers throught about when executing this interface, which includes buttons and knobs as well as the ability to have things touched and swiped.

There is a 12.3-inch screen for the driver that contains the obligatory operational information that butts up to another 12.3-inch screen for the driver and front passenger (though it is slightly curved in a bias for the driver) for purposes of infotainment. Below that second screen, in the center of the overall instrument panel, there are knobs and buttons for control of things like the audio and HVAC (few things are more annoying when driving than trying to control the temperature through a screen selection).

Drive. And Drive Some More.

 But here’s the thing that I saw on the driver’s information screen that was even more striking to me that the exterior design:

585 miles

That was the estimated distance that the car could be driven prior to fill-up. And that estimation was predicated on how other people prior to me had driven the car, and I’m guessing that they weren’t exactly feathering the throttle.

It is worth noting that this is a car that is not anemic (192 hp is produced from the four-cylinder engine combined with an electric motor).

Here’s something interesting about that 585: it is what the available distance is based on getting 44.3 miles per gallon.

The Sonata Hybrid has a 13.2-gallon tank.

Now were it that people prior to me drove it in a more “normal” manner, odds are it would have been even higher: the EPA estimated numbers are 44 mpg city, 51 mpg highway, 47 mpg combined.

The range based on the combined average: 620 miles.

According to the Federal Highway Administration, the number of miles driven annually in the U.S., on average, is approximately 14,000 miles. So were you to be driving a Sonata Hybrid and getting the combined average, this would mean having to go to the gas station not more than twice a month. Which means about 10 minutes per month for a fill up.

For a car that is stylish, comfortable, and technologically up-to-date.

It really is an impressive car.

2025 Toyota Camry XLE

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Shake it up. . .

By Gary S. Vasilash

It may seem that the most controversial move made by Toyota for the 2025 Camry—the  ninth generation of the midsize sedan—was to make all of them, be it FWD or AWD, LE, SE, XLE, or XSE trim, hybrids.

2025 Camry XLE. Stylish, well-equipped, and a hybrid. (Image: Toyota)

That’s right: Every Camry is a hybrid.

Under the hood across the board is a 2.5-liter, four-cylinder engine supplemented by electric motor generators such that the FWD version produces 225 net-combined horsepower (engine + motor) and the AWD 232 hp. This is Toyota’s fifth-generation hybrid system. Yes, they’ve been at it a while.

Depending on the drive configuration the fuel efficiency goes from a low of 44/43/44 mpg, city/highway/combined, for the XSE AWD (the top of the line) to 53/50/51 mpg for the LE FWD. To call 44 mpg combined “low” is, well, ridiculous.

Lots and lots and. . .

Realize that the Camry is the perennial best-selling car in the U.S. (22 years running), with the company delivering 290,649 units in the U.S. last year, units produced by Toyota in its manufacturing complex in Georgetown, Kentucky. (During the history of the plant, which opened in 1986, there have been more than 11 million Camrys built within those ever-growing walls. Yes, the expansion there has been notable such that today there is 9-million square feet under roof, which, according to Toyota, is equivalent to the size of 157 football fields.)

One might think that Toyota would not want to rock the proverbial boat, to make changes that might seem upsetting to what is clearly a loyal base of buyers. It’s not like there haven’t been hybrid powertrains in Camrys.

There have—since model year 2008 (calendar year 2007).

But it has always been a powertrain selection until now. You could get a Camry with or without electrification.

Yet the product planners at Toyota decided that the best thing to do was to go all in on hybrids.

Yikes! one might think.

The time is right

But broader market timing seems propitious, as there is the swerve away from full electric vehicles to electrified vehicles, a.k.a., hybrids. In 2023 Toyota Motor North America overall sales—including Lexus models, its bZ4X electric and Mirai fuel cell—included 29.2% hybrid models, up from 23.9% in 2023. One can only imagine the number when 2024 is calculated.

What I found to be surprising about the Camry XLE wasn’t under the hood but on the inside: there is trim covered with Dinamica, a microfiber, that has a quilted pattern. It is light gray. Black is available, as well.

Said another way: there is fabric covering surfaces on the door panels and dash board where you otherwise would see leather or plastic. The material is produced with recycled polyester without the use of organic solvents, so it is comparatively environmentally advantageous.

Yes, that trim is actually a fabric.

It is also surprising for those of us who are more used to seeing smooth materials that are naturally or mechanically grained.

A generational difference

However, when I showed the Camry to a Gen Z niece, she thought the interior was the most wonderful she’d ever seen. And when I explained that the car in question is a hybrid, it gained significantly more points in her book.

So what might seem like a risky move by Toyota is undoubtedly a correct one.

It is often said that a given generation doesn’t want to buy the type of vehicles that they’re parents had driven them in. In my niece’s case it was a Honda Odyssey and Ford Flex.

She and her husband presently drive a pickup for no reasons of utility.

But it seems that a sedan is on the table for her. And given what Toyota has done with the ’25 Camry, it is something that is of even greater interest.

And here’s another thing to consider: at her age she has a whole lot of vehicles in her future, so if she finds appeal in the Camry, odds are good that the company will get more business from her in the future. Given the reliability of Toyotas and given that the Camry is full of tech for purposes of entertainment and safety, it seems that the edge of style makes it all the more attractive.

Certainly a clever move by Toyota.

Additive Aids at BMW

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This is where 3D printing really gets the job done. . .

By Gary S. Vasilash

Although every now and then there is an announcement about a “3D-printed car,” it is pretty much that: a 3D-printed car. Or maybe a few of them. In any case, these are objects that are exceedingly expensive and take a comparatively long time to produce.

BMW has been using additive manufacturing (the more technical name for the process) for more than 30 years. In fact the company has established an “Additive Manufacturing Campus” in Oberschleißheim.

Last year in excess of 300,000 parts were printed there. And another 100,000 parts were printed at other BMW facilities.

One of the categories where the technology is used to great effect is in the manufacture of “production aids.”

Getting a Grip

Things like grippers for robots.

Explains Jens Ertel, Head of BMW Additive Manufacturing, by using additive, “We can individually adapt to specific requirements at any time, as well as being able to optimize their weight.”

Why does that matter?

“Less weight allows higher speeds on the production line, shorter cycle times and reduced costs.”

A key reason why they are able to reduce the weight of the grippers is because the process allows the creation of shapes that can’t otherwise be efficiently produced.

Try to make that blue shape–a robotic gripper–with something other than additive manufacturing. (Image: BMW)

That is, just as a stamping press can produce a body panel in a matter of seconds while a 3D printer would take hours, a 3D printer can produce an intricate organic shape generated by topology optimization in a fraction of the time it could be produced—if at all (reasonably speaking) by conventional manufacturing processes.

One of the organic robot grippers, produced in 22 hours, is being used to handle composite-reinforced plastic (CFRP) roofs for BMW M GmbH models.

Although this gripper weighs about 264 pounds, that’s 20%, or some 50 pounds, lighter than a gripper made with conventional manufacturing processes.

Another gripper that was made with additive is being used to handle the entire floor assembly of a BMW i4.

Making Molds

If you’ve ever seen additive manufacturing in action (IRL or on YouTube), chances are this is something where there is a laser beam running over a liquid or powder surface at speed and voila! a part emerges.

But there is another way that 3D printing is being used in manufacturing to great effect, which is using it to produce sand casting molds (essentially, the laser is used to melt the resin on sand particles or there is another process that uses a machine that is like an office ink-jet printer but what it uses in place of ink is an adhesive to bind the particles of sand together).

The finished mold—which allows things like curved internal holes that can’t be made by drilling (after all, drills are straight)—is then filled with liquid aluminum.

The gripper produced with this process is 30% lighter than the one conventionally made.

Sure, making production aides with 3D printing may not be as sexy as producing an entire car.

But it is a whole lot more effective and useful.

Why You Want to be Friends with a Car Mechanic

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Let’s face it, as things age they need more work. . .

By Gary S. Vasilash

Although there is considerable attention paid by the industry and industry observers on new vehicle sales—for the former it is simply because that is where their money is made (or not) and for the latter, new things tend to be more interesting than things that have been around the block more than a few times—turns out that so far as the public is concerned, the vehicle they’ve had in their garage is probably going to continue to serve them for some time to come.

S&P Global Mobility has run the numbers based on registration information and discovered that the average age of cars and light trucks is at an all-time high: 12.6 years.

This means that the new-car smell that was wafting through the interior in 2011 may be gone but the set of wheels isn’t.

As of this past January, according to S&P Global Mobility, there were 286 million vehicles on the roads of the U.S. They term it “vehicles in operation” (VIO).

Of that, some 70% are between 6 and 14 years old. And that percentage will hold, it is calculated, for about the next five years.

And no vehicle analysis would be complete without looking at electric vehicles.

S&P Global Mobility says the average age of EVs in the U.S. is 3.5 years.

However, there is still some bullishness:

“We started to see headwinds in EV sales growth in late 2023, and though there will be some challenges on the road to EV adoption that could drive EV average age up, we still expect significant growth in share of electric vehicles in operation over the next decade.”– Todd Campau, aftermarket practice lead at S&P Global Mobility

But there is something that provides some perspective about the number of EVs on the road vis-à-vis the total VIO.

There are 3.2 million EVs in operation in the U.S.

That means 1.1% of the total VIO.

Given the amount of attention garnered you’d think that at the very least the decimal point would be shifted one place to the right.

Well, They Gave It a Good Try at Mercedes. . . .

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“At MBUSI [Mercedes-Benz U.S. International, Inc.], our primary focus is always to provide a safe and supportive work environment for our Team Members, so they can build superior vehicles for the world. We look forward to continuing to work directly with our Team Members to ensure MBUSI is not only their employer of choice, but a place they would recommend to friends and family.”

That is the official statement from the company after employees at the Vance, Alabama, voted not to join the United Auto Workers.

Given that the employees at Volkswagen of America in Chattanooga, Tennessee, voted last month rather resoundingly to join the UAW—73% said “Let’s join!”—it was figured by some people that there would be something of a German company movement toward union organized solidarity.

But at MBUSI 56% were against joining the UAW.

(The numbers: 2,642 voted no and 2,045 voted yes. While that might seem close at first glance, that 12% delta is non-trivial.)

While the UAW has been on something of a tear of late, given the impressive contracts with the Motor City 3 and the win at VW, clearly not all auto workers see the situation as, in the words of the UAW, “Southern Autoworkers vs. Corporate Greed.”

Putting Hydrogen On the Road

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California wants carbon neutrality by 2045. This could help. . .

By Gary S. Vasilash

Symbio is an interesting company that you’ve probably not heard of, interesting for two reasons:

  1. It is developing vehicles like hydrogen-powered trucks
  2. It is jointly owned by Forvia, Michelin and Stellantis. Forvia produces a number of products, from automotive interiors to containment cylinders for hydrogen. Michelin is heavily involved in developing green mobility solutions, such as low rolling-resistance tires. And Stellantis, of course, is in the business of vehicle manufacture.
Big rig. Zero emissions. (Image: Symbio)

Symbio has developed a Class 8 truck that is powered by hydrogen, a demonstrator vehicle called the “H2 Central Valley Express.”

The name of the vehicle relates to where the truck will operate in California: a route between the Inland Empire and Northern San Joaquin Valley in California.

The truck’s 400-kW StackPack fuel cell system is said to be comparable to a 15-liter diesel engine.

There is a 70-kg hydrogen tank onboard. It gives the truck a range of 450-miles.

And unlike a diesel, there are no emissions.

The truck will go into operation later this week on a 400-mile route. On the route there are four different operating conditions, such as urban, high-speed, and hill climb and descent. The demonstration period is to last 12 months.

This isn’t some sort of engineering undertaking: the truck will be in revenue service for Total Transportation Services.

Odds are that things like the Tesla Semi notwithstanding, when it comes to commercial freight operations hydrogen is going to be the way to go to zero emissions.

BMW & People

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What you need for success. . . .

By Gary S. Vasilash

Oliver Zipse, chairman of the Board of Management of BMW AG, spoke to the company’s investors earlier this week and opened with a topic that is absolutely important to any company—in automotive and everywhere else—but tends not to get the attention it deserves: the employees.

“Becoming a little bit better every day—that is what we aspire to.” –Oliver Zipse (Image: BMW)


Zipse noted that the company has more than 150,000 employees in locations across the world (fun fact: BMW’s largest plant is located. . .in Spartanburg, South Carolina; Zipse said that at BMW the U.S. is referred to as the company’s “second home”).

Zipse:

“In autumn of last year, we surveyed all our associates around the world: 85 percent said they fully support the company’s goals and strategy. And even 93 percent are proud to work for the BMW Group.”

Without having supportive people, people who are proud of where they work and undoubtedly proud of what they produce, then no company can consistently produce products that people are proud to own.

And regardless of whether it is electric or ICE, autonomous or manual, it all comes down to the women and men who work on building the vehicles.

Credit to Zipse and his colleagues for recognizing that and putting it at the top of his speech, where it belongs.

Something to Know About Na-ion Batteries

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While the attention to developments in the arena of high-voltage batteries that can power vehicles is considerable and understandable, turns out that low-voltage batteries—along the lines of the batteries under the hoods of ICE vehicles—shouldn’t be overlooked.

According to Clarios, a Wisconsin-based producer of batteries and battery systems, the low-voltage network in EVs and hybrids support such things as steer-by-wire, brake-by-wire, and cabin infotainment, and the number of things being supported is only expected to grow.

It has signed a Joint Development Agreement with Altris, a Swedish developer and prototype manufacturer of sodium-ion (Na-ion) batteries, for these low-voltage applications.

Why is this interesting?

Because according to the companies the Na-ion batteries:

  1. Provide a power density equivalent to LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries
  2. Are environmentally friendly: the materials used to produce Na-ion batteries include salt, wood, iron, and air

Clearly there’s some remarkable chemistry going on in those cells.