The Cox Automotive sales forecast for 2019—yes, the full numbers will be in in a few days, but that isn’t the point here—includes some interesting information in the charts. No surprise that cars—compact and midsize—are projected to be down by double digits, though it is surprising that only the midsize SUV/Crossover is in positive territory compared with December 2018.

No, the thing that is unexpected is that once you get beyond the top four OEMs—which would be GM, Ford, Toyota, and FCA (which brings up the point that even were there such a moniker as “The Big Three,” FCA wouldn’t make the cut)—things get somewhat interesting. As in the distance between #4 and #5, Honda. FCA is projected to deliver 2.2 million and Honda 1.6 million.

Here’s the interesting bit: Nissan is projected to have sales of 1,365,900 units in 2019. Hyundai Kia (yes, the two are combined the same way that Lincoln sales go with Ford’s) is estimated to be at 1,328,788.

37,112 units separating the two.

The last two companies on the list are Subaru and Volkswagen. The former seems to rack up sales records like clockwork. Yet Subaru sales, Cox Automotive predicts, will be 703,755. Which is only about half of Nissan sales.

And while Volkswagen is getting all manner of attention because of its recovery from Dieselgate, its total sales are estimated to be 650,541 for the year. Or just 22% of GM’s sales—and while VW’s sales are projected to be up 2.5%, GM’s will be down 2.5%

The thing about trade agreements—or lack thereof—which isn’t always taken into account is that there can be huge ramifications, particularly as trade between countries is nowadays extensively linked.

Case in point is what is going on in the UK auto engine manufacturing sector. According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), a trade association representing the auto industry, there was a 13.9% decline in engine manufacturing in November 2019.

(Image: SMMT)

This is particularly notable because about 60% of the engines built in the UK are exported. And because of the “no deal” Brexit that has been in the offing these past several months, the companies on the receiving end of those engines have worked to find alternative sources.

According to Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive,” As with UK cars and vans, UK engine production is export-led, so it is vital that certainty is provided on the nature of our future overseas trading relationships. We look forward to working with the new government to secure an ambitious fture trade deal with the EU that ensures the future competitiveness of UK Automotive.”

Good luck with that.

Year to date, incidentally, UK automotive engine production is down 7.9% compared with 2018.

Although electrification is as important to GM as it is to any OEM, when it comes to the U.S. market, Trucks Are Kings, so it isn’t entirely surprising that the company has announced a $1.5-billion investment in the next generation of its midsize trucks, as in the Chevy Colorado and the GMC Canyon, both of which were introduced in 2013.

Of the money, $1-billion will be spent at the GM Wentzville truck plant and presumably the balance will have something to do with product development.

Explained GM president Mark Reuss, “This is part of our comprehensive strategy to invest in growth areas and strengthen our U.S. manufacturing base. GM sells more pickups than any other automaker and we have aggressive plans to build on our strengths.”

While that sales is true in the aggregate, to be fair, if sales through the third quarter are looked at and the subject is midsize pickups, then know that there were 96,820 Colorados sold and 26,300 Canyons, a total 123,120, which is significantly fewer than the Toyota Tacoma: 207, 347 during the same period.

Maybe there will be an electric truck.

Maybe.

(GM Photo)

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved a regulation that will have public transit agencies in the state transition to zero-emission bus fleets by 2040.
According to CARB, the transportation sector accounts for 40 percent of “climate changing gas emission” and 80 to 90 percent of “smog-forming pollutants.” The uncertainty in how much of the latter—the difference between 80 percent and 90 percent is non-trivial—is a bit concerning.

The organization reckons that as the transition starts to zero-emissions public buses starts and goes beyond the point of fulfillment there will be 19-million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions not emitted into the atmosphere between 2020 and 2050, which is said to be “the equivalent of taking 4 million cars off the road.”

BYD bus for Fresno

According to the California Department of Motor Vehicles, there were 25,467,663 automobiles registered in the state as of December 2017, so there is still a whole lot of stuff going into the atmosphere.
A few other numbers need to be taken into account.
There are 200 public transit agencies in the state. Of the agencies, eight out of the top ten are operating zero-emission buses.
However, there are 153 of them, fewer than the number of transit agencies. And there are approximately 12,000 buses being operated in California.
CARB projects that based on orders or those that are “otherwise planned for purchase,” there will be 1,000 zero-emission buses in the state by 2020.
That means only 11,000 more over the next 20 years. Which certainly doesn’t seem insurmountable.
And reaching it will be a good thing for all who like to breathe.

Acura, last week, during Monterey Car Week, introduced the 2019 NSX.

One of the changes is the availability of a new paint color, Thermal Orange Pearl paint.

But as this is a performance car, they’ve done things like installing stiffer stabilizer bars stiffness is up 26% in the front and up 19% in the rear)as , offering what is described as a “new grippier” tire (actually Continental SportContact 6 tires), and they’ve tweaked the software of the vehicle that features a twin-turbocharged V6, an electric direct drive motor attached to the engine and two additional electric motors, which drive the front left and right wheels. The total horsepower is 573 and the total torque is 476 lb-ft.

And while on the subject of numbers: the vehicle starts at $157,000. While that’s an increase of $1,500, according to Acura personnel, there is $4,700 previously optional content now standard. So that seems to be a win for the buyer.

Speaking of buyers, Acura could use some.

According to Acura, in July 2018 the company sold three NSX models in the U.S. That’s not a typo. For the firs seven months of the year, 96. Which sort of indicates that things are apparently lagging of late.

Will the orange paint save it?

Nowadays it seems as though no one really cares much about the fuel efficiency of their vehicles (unless, of course, the people in question work at an OEM and need to meet regulations that may, in the U.S., at least, be becoming less of an issue, so these people may not care much either).

After all, the price at the pump isn’t all that high, at least so far as memory serves.

But it seems as though prices are ratcheting up, but perhaps in a way that doesn’t seem all that onerous. Yet.

According to GasBuddy, during the week preceding March 19, 2018, gas prices in Detroit rose 7.8 cents per gallon compared to the previous week to an average $2.63 per gallon.

While less than a dime isn’t much, it should be pointed out that they’ve found that the price is 14.6 cents higher than a month ago.

And 31.1 cents per gallon compared with a year ago.

Looked at nationally, things are going north, as well.

According to Patrick DeHann, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, “The national average now stands at its highest level in over a month and is likely to continue moving higher in the weeks ahead as demand continues to recover from the winter blues and the transition to summer gasoline kicks into high gear.”

And here’s the real kicker: DeHann continued, “Overall, gas prices this spring will come in some 10-25% higher than a year ago, removing billions of dollars from other areas of the economy that will instead be funneled to the pump.”

Billions of dollars.