shinymetalboxes

Cars, culture & contingent considerations

Why OEMs Build EVs and Other Things You Think You Know That Probably Aren’t the Case

Posted on May 24, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

A lively discussion of things from why Americans don’t buy small, cheap cars and why OEMs aren’t likely to get a big revenue stream from sending data to vehicle head-units

By Gary S. Vasilash

Although there is a whole lot of development going on in the electric vehicle (EV) space, as OEMs announce products and plans with what seems to border on giddiness, maybe things aren’t what they seem.

Consider, for one example, the F-150 Lightning reveal. While it might seem as though every person on your street is likely to replace their gasoline-powered F-150 with an electric one as soon as is practical (even though there is a starting MSRP of $40,000, and even though $40,000 is pretty much the average cost of a vehicle, it is still $40,000), even though people are touting the frunk that will allow them to fill it up with ice and beverages and the power outlets that will permit the audio equipment to be plugged in for parties and picnics, when you listen to Eric Noble, founder and president of The Car Lab, what seems to be the case may not be the case.

The F-150 Lightning in what is a natural environment: a work site. (*Image: Ford*)

That is, Noble points out that largely because of EV batteries—“They are expensive, huge, very heavy and don’t store very much energy”—especially the cost part, OEMs don’t make money on EVs unless these EVs are priced so highly that the cost of the battery can be buried in the MSRP.

Noble argues that because of the zero-emissions mandate of California and the other states that follow California’s lead in emissions regulations, OEMs that want to sell vehicles in those states—including vehicles with a 5.0-liter V8 under the hood—need to sell zero-emissions vehicles: EVs.

What is the number on the sales forecasts that OEMs have for EVs, he rhetorically asks.

Pretty much what the number of EVs required by the ZEV states are for that particular OEM.

However, he points out that there could be some real business for OEMs when it comes to selling to fleets. (“Ford is good at fleets,” Noble says.)

In other words, Teslas and Mustang Mach Es notwithstanding (and I don’t know whether the champagne need be busted out for the Mach E quite yet because in April Ford sold 1,951 Mach Es and 8,000 regular Mustangs), things like the Lightning are likely to be more oriented toward places where they can do the OEM the most good, which very well may be in fleet applications.

Noble talks about this on this edition of “Autoline After Hours.” And many of his arguments are bolstered by observations by Sam Fiorani, vice president of Global Vehicle Forecasting, AutoForecast Solutions.

Also on the table are other subjects of the moment, like over-the-air updates (not likely to be a revenue stream for OEMs because customers don’t want to have a monthly charge to their credit cards, why tech companies won’t become auto companies and vice versa, and a whole lot more.

Per usual, “Autoline’s” John McElroy and I are engaged in the conversation with these guests, and it is one of the livelier discussions you are like to see about the state of the industry—the reality versus the proclamations.

And you can see it here.

Not As Big 3 for SUVs

Posted on May 21, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Toyota leads in SUV sales in the U.S.–by a non-trivial amount

By Gary S. Vasilash

Although it might seem that when it comes to trucks and SUVs, “trucky” things, that Ford, General Motors and the company formerly known as FCA which was formerly known as Chrysler, would be dominant.

When it comes to pickups, yes. The numbers of F-150s, Silverados and Rams is truly extraordinary. Who knew that so many people were in need of boxes on the back of their vehicles? (Yes, people who actually do work with their trucks, do, but somehow that guy down the street who uses the bed to carry mulch once a year. . . .)

According to analysis firm Inovev, SUVs represented 53.5% of the U.S. market during the first quarter.

Toyota RAV4: best selling SUV in the U.S. *(Image: Toyota)*

And of them, most carried the Toyota “T.”

Inovev notes that Toyota has outsold both Chevy and Ford by about 50,000 units, with Toyota sales being just shy of 250,000 units and the other two slightly below 200,000 for Q1.

Inovev points out that Toyota also leads the Big Three in the sedan category (Camry, Corolla).

So if there are three big categories–trucks, SUVs and cars–the Big Three is now only dominant in one.

The Cost of “Refueling”

Posted on May 20, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Turns out that EVs are significantly less expensive to power

By Gary S. Vasilash

Although electric vehicles tend to be more costly than comparable gasoline-powered vehicles, when it comes to “refueling,” EVs can save a whole lot of money compared with gasoline-powered vehicles, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

As much as about 60%.

The agency developed what it calls an “eGallon.”

That is a comparison of what it would cost to buy equivalent energy to power an EV the same amount as it would cost a gasoline powered vehicle to travel on one gallon of gas.

So, based on the national average of $2.85 for a gallon of gas (as of March 31) and the equivalent price of electricity at a national average of $1.16 for an eGallon, this means the average fuel savings of approximately 60%.

In Washington state the difference was much larger: the cost of a gallon of regular was $3.13 and the cost of an eGallon was $0.89, so the fuel cost savings was about 72%.

So for those who pay attention to what they’re paying for their miles per gallon, it appears that EVs may be advantageous.

Of course, it takes longer to recharge an EV than it does to fill up a tank with liquid fuel.

So if time is money. . . .

Something Surprising About SUVs

Posted on May 19, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Yes, they are selling in the U.S. and Canada in great numbers, but the Mexican market still likes cars, LMC finds

By Gary S. Vasilash

Although SUVs (yes, including crossovers under that omnibus name) continue to proliferate in the U.S. and Canadian markets, turns out that things aren’t quite the same in the other USMCA country, Mexico.

According to LMC Automotive, while SUV sales surpassed those of cars in Canada in 2015 and in the U.S. in 2016, in 2020 cars outsold SUVs in Mexico. And not just by a little.

Nissan still sells cars in Mexico. (*Image: Nissan*)

The LMC data show that cars outsold SUVs by more than 2:1.

That said, there is growth in SUV sales in Mexico notes LMC Americas Vehicle Sales Forecasts analyst David Oakley, but there is an issue: “The overarching obstacle is cost, with SUVs still carrying a larger price tag than many high volume cars.”

Complicating matters for Mexican consumers is the fact that Ford and Chevrolet have pretty much given up on cars, about which Oakley says, “these brands seem to have jumped the gun with regard to Mexico’s readiness for such a shift.”

Although it is estimated that cars and SUVs will reach parity in sales by 2030 in Mexico, there are still several years of sales between now and then, sales that will probably go to brands like Hyundai and Nissan.

The Big Spend

Posted on May 18, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Seems like vehicle buyers are buying—costs be damned

By Gary S. Vasilash

“Importantly, consumer spending will still advance despite higher prices due to pent-up demand and record savings balances.” That’s Richard Curtin, chief economist for the Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan.

In the survey for May it was discovered that consumer confidence fell compared to the data for April. A concern is with inflation.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Consumer Price Index was up by 4.2% for the 12-month period ending in the cruelest month. That was the highest rise since September 2008, when it hit 4.9%.

What was a big contributing factor to both the fall in consumer confidence and the increase in consumer prices? Vehicle prices.

In the case of used cars and trucks, the BLS measured a 10% increase in prices—the largest one-month increase since they started measuring back in 1953.

But it seems that shoppers aren’t all that concerned.

According to Cox Automotive:

“Four out of ten consumers are willing to pay above the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP), and those willing to pay over MSRP are willing to accept a 12% premium.”

Cox calculates that based on the average MSRP for new vehicles in April being $41,950, according to Kelley Blue Book, “many consumers are willing to pay $5,000 over sticker price.”

Somehow politicians are blamed for inflation.

Seems like consumers might have more than a cameo role in this scenario.

A Look at the Class of 2021

Posted on May 17, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Vehicles, not college grads, that is.

By Gary S. Vasilash

There are lots of new vehicles that have been or will be introduced this year. So on this edition of “Autoline After Hours” we dedicate the show to talking about some of them.

And the “we” includes “Autoline’s” John McElroy; Jennifer Newman, editor-in-chief of Cars.com; Gary Witzenburg, president of the North American Car, Truck and Utility of the Year Awards and freelance journalist, and me.

Among the vehicles discussed:

Acura MDX: Fourth generation of the utility. Three rows. Edgier styling. Solid suspension. What’s not to like? Apparently the True Touchpad Interface.
Buick Envision: A crossover with meticulous attention to detail, inside and out. Does the fact that it is made in China have anything to do with that?
Cadillac CT5-V Blackwing and CT4-V Blackwing: A lesser bat-out-of-hell (the 4 has a 472-hp engine) and a full-blown one (the 5 has a 668-hp engine).
Chevy Bolt EUV: The second electric vehicle (EV) in the lineup that looks more like an SUV, presumably to appeal to those who can’t get enough of that body style.
Ford Bronco: A hard-core off-road vehicle, coming soon to a driveway near you. Get the Sasquatch Package and get extra ground clearance and the approach and departure angles that make climbing rocks not an issue. Get the optional Honda
GMC HUMMER EV Pickup. 1,000 hp 11,500 lb-ft of torque. 0 to 60 mph in 3 seconds. 350+ miles of driving range. Fast charge up to 100 miles in 10 minutes. You can’t get a reservation for Edition 1, which is coming out this fall and has an MSRP of $112,595. In the fall of 22 there will be more available with a reduced price: $99,995.
Honda Civic Sedan: The 11^th generation appears to be what will bring Honda back to being Honda. Which should make sedan enthusiasts every enthusiastic.
Hyundai Santa Cruz and Tucson and IONIQ 5: whether it is a little truck-like vehicle, a compact sport ute that comes with two flavors of hybrid as well as a conventional ICE powertrain, or a fully electric crossover, seems that Hyundai is the Overachiever of the Year.
Kia Carnival: Don’t call this a “minivan.” Don’t.
Nissan Frontier: It has been a while since Nissan has brought out a new version of its pickup (e.g., the one that is out now appeared in. . . 1998), so they’ve clearly had time to get this one right.
Rivian R1T: Will this electric pickup from a startup be a success in the market?

And much, much more.

Which you can see right here.

Indy 500 and Nine Winners

Posted on May 14, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Nearly a quarter of this year’s field consists of previous winners

By Gary S. Vasilash

On May 30 the 105^th running of the Indianapolis 500 is scheduled to be held.

While things can change between now and then, here’s something of at least moderate interest:

In the field of 35 cars (18 will have Chevy engines, 17 Hondas; all are Dallara chassis (a.k.a., cars) running on Firestone tires), there will be nine people who have won “The Greatest Spectacle in Racing.”*

They are:

Helio Castroneves (2001, 2002, 2009)
Juan Pablo Montoya (2000, 2015)
Takuma Sato (2017, 2020)
Scott Dixon (2008)
Tony Kanaan (2013)
Ryan Hunter-Reay (2014)
Alexander Rossi (2016)
Will Power (2018)
Simon Pagenaud (2019)

If Castroneves manages to win, he will be the fourth driver to have won the race four times, with the current three being A.J. Foyt, Al Unser Sr., and Rick Mears.

*The phrase “The Greatest Spectacle in Racing” was written by Alice Greene, a copywriter working for WIBC radio. Some sources have it in 1954 and others in 1955.

Toyota Supporting MaaS in Dallas

Posted on May 13, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

Mobility as a Service from AARP to help seniors—although younger people can ride

By Gary S. Vasilash

Although Boomers don’t like to admit it, many of them are, well, old.

And a high percentage of them probably ought not drive.

And given that there are still ads that play on terrestrial TV in off hours for phones with GIANT NUMBERS, presumably some of those people are not particularly technically sophisticated.

Which is to say that credit should go to Toyota for its support of the AARP Ride@50+ program that is available in the Dallas area, a ride-hailing service that can be accessed on line or by phone (“Talk to a rear person to schedule your ride.”)

Think of it as Lyft or Uber for the AARP set (although, according to the FAQs, you don’t have to be an AARP member to use, and riders don’t have to be AARP aged, although it is meant for them, not for those who are looking for a ride after too many craft cocktails).

One of the purposes is to help get people to COVID-19 vaccination sites. Those people who book a ride to get a jab will get it for free, with Toyota picking up the tab.

Although it is easy to be smug about this (“Seriously, they can’t use Uber?”), as Sean Suggs, group vice president, Toyota Social Innovation, put it, “This program makes it easier to access critical services and help people get to where they want to go, and that is what mobility is all about.”

GM Gets Ahead of the Curve on EV Battery Recycling

Posted on May 12, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

“GM’s zero-waste initiative aims to divert more than 90 percent of its manufacturing waste from landfills and incineration globally by 2025,” said Ken Morris, GM vice president of Electric and Autonomous Vehicles. This is one effort toward that end.

By Gary S. Vasilash

No one can say that General Motors and its partner LG Energy Solution aren’t being proactive.

The two companies operate a joint venture, Ultium Cells LLC. Ultium Cells will build the Ultium batteries that GM will use in its forthcoming electric vehicles (EVs).

Ultium battery for the GMC HUMMER EV Pickup. Those white slats slot into that container. (*Image: GM*)

GM’s current EVs—the Chevrolet Bolt EV and Bolt EUV—have lithium-ion batteries, but not Ultium batteries. That’s because the vehicles were developed pre-Ultium.

However, vehicles like the forthcoming Cadillac LYRIQ, which is to become available the first half of 2022, will have Ultium batteries on board.

Ultium Cells announced that it will be working with L-Cycle, a battery recycling company, to, well, recycle the material scrap from battery cell manufacturing.

Cobalt. Nickel. Lithium. Graphite. Manganese. Aluminum.

According to GM, 95% of the reclaimed materials can go into things like new batteries.

Li-Cycle says that the hydrometallurgical process it uses to recycle the materials is more energy efficient than other methods, like high-temperature “smelting” processes.

Which is fitting to what Ultium Cells is up to, as Thomas Gallagher, the company’s COO, said, “We strive to make more with less waste and energy expended.”

And at the very least, it undoubtedly beats the heck out of mining those materials.

The recycling process is scheduled to go on line later this year.

After all, they need to develop batteries so they can develop scrap.

1934 Voisin C-27 Aérosport

Posted on May 11, 2021 by shinymetalboxes

They don’t design them like they used to.

By Gary S. Vasilash

Voisin–1934. Aluminum body. Note the shape of the side window. *(Image: The Concours of Elegance)*

This is the Voisin C-27 Aérosport, created by Gabriel Voisin, who, at the start of the age of aircraft was a pioneer: he had the first plane to fly more than 1 km, with the accomplishment being under “official observation.”

Post-World War I he became involved in automobiles. Because of his aeronautical experience he made vehicles with aluminum bodies. . .which had the downside of being a required material for World War II construction, so many Voisins were scrapped for material.

“Many” needs to be taken with a bit of salt: there were only about 11,000 vehicles built.

Today there are about 150.

This vehicle will be on display at the The Concours of Elegance that will be held at Hampton Court Place September 3 to 5. (Or, in the UK, 3 to 5 September.)

Of course, there will be plenty of UK cars on the green.

But seriously, look at that car from 1934.

Magnifique!